Information flows too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column rescues this judgment-valuable content from the massive amount of information, filtering out the noise for you, leaving insights, and bringing inspiration.
Macro Situation
Trump's Playbook: We Are Now at Step Nine
According to Trump's playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately ends with a narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions." The potential impact of this development on the market cannot be ignored.
The Kobeissi Letter points out that Step Ten—the violent market repricing following the formal announcement of an agreement—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have long held defensive positions will face pressure to quickly close their positions, potentially causing a sharp rise in the stock market, while oil prices may plummet rapidly as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes are established.
Not Bombing Oil Fields, Just Bombing K-Lines: Trump's Threat Economics
Rather than using deadlines to force Iran to concede, Trump seems more like using deadlines to set the rhythm for the international news cycle and the global energy market.
Trump often reuses a four-step dance: maximum threat, critical withdrawal, opening negotiations, and a ceremonial climax. Each step in between is priced by the media and the market as an independent event, and the pricing of each step is reset by the next.
20% Shortage, 100% Collapse: The True Logic of the Energy Crisis
The problem is not whether oil is already insufficient, but that once enough people begin to believe it might be insufficient, the system will prematurely enter contraction and revaluation. Strategic reserves can only extend the time frame but cannot provide an answer; and this window is closing rapidly.
Mid-to-late April will become a critical juncture. By then, the market will need to face not "whether it will happen," but "when it will be confirmed."
The Market Awaits the End of the War, But Oil Prices Are Pricing in a Protracted Conflict
As the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, the global crude oil supply system is forced to restructure—Asian buyers are turning to U.S. crude oil on a large scale, with WTI surpassing Brent, marking a structural change in pricing mechanisms and trade flows. Short-term price differences can be explained by contracts, but deeper down, it's a question of "who can still supply." The key misjudgment in the current market is not the price, but the timing.
The futures curve still implies a premise: the conflict will end in the short term, and supply will resume. But the more likely path is a long war of attrition. This means that high oil prices are no longer a阶段性冲击, but will evolve into a more persistent structural state, with the range potentially shifting upward to $120–150. Under this framework, crude oil is no longer just a commodity but becomes the "upstream variable" for all assets. Its repricing will be transmitted layer by layer along interest rates, exchange rates, the stock market, and the credit market.
Into the Tiger's Den: A Field Investigation Report from the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is not simply in a state of open or closed. The reality is that hot war and commercial diplomacy proceed in parallel: the U.S. is conducting military operations, while its allies (such as France, Japan, and Greece) are actively negotiating navigation rights with Iran.
This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Soaring Oil Prices, Stubborn Interest Rates, and the Seven Sisters Stalling: Which Themes Should We Watch for Alpha Returns in Q2 U.S. Stocks?
Q2 looks more like a quarter of high volatility, strong differentiation, and predominantly structural opportunities. Beta returns at the index level are limited, but Alpha has not disappeared; instead, it will be more concentrated, more selective, and more reliant on understanding of theme evolution than in Q1.
The main themes for U.S. stocks in Q2 are: AI Infrastructure 2.0, Finance & Cyclicals, Aerospace and Commercial Space, the Seven Sisters and Software Repair, Precious Metals and Resource Security.
Gold Returns to $4800, Where Is the Top This Year?
Prediction markets indicate the price may be below $4200 before June, with the highest price potentially exceeding $6000 within the year; Institutional view: Gold will still hit new highs, with the price around $5200 by the end of June.
A 400% Annualized "Free Lunch"? The Truth Behind Trade.xyz's Crude Oil Perpetual Negative Funding Rate
A rare phenomenon has appeared on Trade.xyz's WTIOIL-USDC crude oil perpetual contract: the annualized funding rate has stabilized between -300% and -400%. This means that any trader willing to go long at this moment can receive profits equivalent to 1% of their principal daily from the pockets of short sellers. And the market doesn't give away money for nothing.
Three common strategies are as follows: Short the Trade.xyz crude oil contract at the current price while going long on the far-month contract on CME; Short the far-month futures contract, go long on the xyz near-month contract, and close the position before the roll begins; Short the xyz contract funding rate on Boros before the roll begins.
Bear Market Startup Guide Part 2: Token Transfer Station - Exchanging Crypto Tokens for AI Tokens
Transfer services selling "low-cost APIs" are still undervalued: Using cryptocurrency (Crypto Token) to directly purchase AI Token is a structural entry point that has not been fully exploited; Packaging and selling domestic cheap models like Qwen, Kimi, GLM, and Minimax to overseas users is a "reverse export" path that has not yet become mainstream.
However, before this business can truly land, it must face—capital thresholds, resource channels, and legal compliance.
Who's Making a Quiet Fortune in the Money-Losing Bear Market?
First, interest rate spreads: Essentially, this is acting as a "capital intermediary." The core logic is to absorb funds at a relatively low cost while deploying funds for relatively high returns, using time to gradually accumulate the difference between returns and costs—the profit of such businesses depends on the scale and duration of the capital沉淀. The larger the scale and the longer the time, the higher the profit.
Second, transaction taxes (fees): This type of business is easier to understand. As long as transaction-related activities (including token creation) occur, the business entity can "levy a tax" in the form of fees on each activity—the profit of such businesses depends on the transaction scale of each activity and the frequency of activities. The larger the scale and the higher the frequency, the higher the profit.
Five and a Half Months into the Bear Market: A Crypto Market Health Check
If the total market cap decline matches the relative peak-to-trough decline of the '22 cycle compared to '18, we might see the total crypto market cap fall 62% from its peak, to $1.67 trillion (a further 30% drop from current levels). In the '22 bear market, the decline began to accelerate 5 months after the stablecoin supply peaked and began to fall. We are in a similar stage of the cycle today, as stablecoin supply hit a local high on March 16th,恰好是进入熊市的 5 个月左右.
BTC's dominance typically declines during bear markets (it was 38% at the '22 bottom). It currently stands at 57%. We expect its decline to be more moderate in this bear market.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets in Major Controversy Again: Are You Trading Facts or Rules?
Recently, prediction markets have seen two highly controversial events in quick succession—Polymarket: The U.S. rescue of a U.S. military pilot in Iran was judged as a U.S. invasion of Iran; Predict.fun: Polymarket issuing a stablecoin was judged as token issuance.
Some high-probability events look like "investment schemes," but they are not without risk; instead, they might be potential "lose-everything schemes." Many reversals happen precisely in these overlooked details. Rather than betting blindly, taking an extra look at the rules is more useful than complaining after losing money.
Also recommended: "Kalshi's Eight-Year Startup History: A Boxer in a Suit Steps into the Ring."
CeFi & DeFi
Data Research: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?
Currently, Hyperliquid indeed cannot match CME in terms of absolute metrics like liquidity depth or slippage, with overall liquidity being less than 1%.
The difference with Hyperliquid is that trading volume for crude oil contracts on Hyperliquid明显增长 during weekend periods. This indicates that besides retail speculators on weekends, traders who want exposure to crude oil trades or need to perform hedging operations before Monday are also trading on Hyperliquid. And this trend is becoming increasingly obvious, giving Hyperliquid price discovery capabilities for commodities.
But for institutional investors, compared to CME, the high transaction costs on the Hyperliquid platform remain the main obstacle to its expansion in the commodity trading field. If Hyperliquid does not soon完善自己具备处理机构级订单的能力, then it can only be a temporary weekend trading venue for traditional traders, ultimately becoming a minor supplement to the traditional financial landscape.
Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Popular Interaction Collection | Cascade Private Beta is Live; KARPAK Mints SBT (April 10th)
Step-by-Step Guide to Participating in Circle's Own Chain Arc Community Event
Meme
Over 25 Years Old? You're Already Unsuitable for Playing Meme Coins
Meme has become a global heat capture competition. The top players in this game are approaching the level of e-sports athletes. Even more, actual e-sports athletes have joined the game. The difficulty of standing out in this game and winning prizes has far exceeded our imagination.
Security
Anthropic Has Developed the Strongest AI Model in History, But Doesn't Dare Release It......
Mythos, the next-generation AI model being developed by Anthropic, is the first model in human history to break the hundred-trillion parameter level (in contrast, mainstream models on the market currently have parameters in the hundreds of billions to one trillion range). Its training cost reached a staggering $10 billion, and it scored significantly higher in tests for software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity.
The company does not dare to release the model publicly directly, for fear of malicious use by hacker groups. Instead, it plans to first allow leading large companies to试用排查 through the "Glass Wings" program, patching potential vulnerabilities in advance.
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
Policy & Macro Markets
US-Iran brief ceasefire, BTC soars past $72k,后市堪忧;
Iran plans to charge transit fees for oil tankers during ceasefire period, $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin (Interpretation);
Russia announces brief ceasefire;
SEC Chair: Crypto safe harbor proposal submitted to White House for review, will allow crypto projects to raise funds without immediate registration;
Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses go to HSBC, Standard Chartered, stablecoin expected to launch as early as mid-year;
Views & Voices
Bitwise: Institutions see current time as good entry opportunity, Bitcoin could hit $95k by year-end;
Caixin: Polymarket's use of USDC for settlement and delivery is a major legal risk for participants in mainland China;
CZ's autobiography "Freedom of Money" released (Highlights + Reading Impressions), details in the book spark online exchange between CZ and Star;
Institutions, Large Companies & Leading Projects
SpaceX plans to公开其首次公开募股招股说明书 by end of May;
Interpretation: Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) selected as the U.S. government's designated fiscal agent, responsible for managing initial accounts; Robinhood will cooperate with BNY, serving as the broker and initial trustee for the "Trump Account";
Polymarket plans comprehensive upgrade of trading engine and launch of native stablecoin Polymarket USD (Interpretation);
Fox News partners with Kalshi to introduce prediction markets to improve reporting accuracy;
Solana launches Agent Skills, supporting AI agent interaction with the chain;
WLFI plans to submit proposal to unlock early tokens next week, responds to lending质疑称无清算风险 (Lending质疑回顾);
Attached: Portal to the "Weekly Editor's Picks" series. See you next time~
