# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Treasury Yields

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Treasury Yields", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

In the week of May 15-19, 2026, U.S. long-term Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.2%, a level unseen since 2007, and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.687%. Equity markets declined in response. Four primary factors are driving the rise in yields. First, stubborn inflation persists, with April wholesale prices rising 6% year-over-year, fueling expectations of potential future Fed rate hikes instead of cuts. Second, newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a complex inflation battle, with markets closely awaiting his first FOMC meeting. Third, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, marked by large deficits and rising debt servicing costs, is eroding the traditional "safe-haven" premium for Treasuries. Fourth, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax cuts are projected to add trillions to the national debt, contributing to Moody's recent credit rating downgrade. Rising yields pressure stocks through several channels: a higher discount rate reduces the present value of future earnings (especially for growth stocks); rising risk-free rates compress equity risk premiums, making bonds relatively more attractive; higher borrowing costs impact consumers and corporations; and a stronger dollar affects multinational earnings. For investors, the environment favors value and financial stocks over long-duration growth stocks. Bond investors find attractive yields in short to intermediate maturities, while income investors see the best fixed-income opportunities in over a decade. Key developments to watch include Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting, upcoming inflation data, Treasury auction demand, and whether the 30-year yield approaches 6%, a level that could trigger a more sustained equity valuation reset. The bond market's message is clear: the era of cheap government borrowing is over, posing a central challenge for markets in late 2026.

marsbit11 ч. назад

Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

marsbit11 ч. назад

The Warsh Storm Approaches

The article "The Warsh Storm Approaches" analyzes the potential market impact of Kevin Warsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman, succeeding Jerome Powell. It argues that the current AI-driven stock market rally, concentrated in high-valuation tech giants, relies on a crucial premise: that long-term interest rates will eventually fall. This premise is now under threat as the 30-year Treasury yield remains persistently high, exceeding 5%, due to sticky inflation, worsening U.S. fiscal deficits, and deteriorating Treasury supply-demand dynamics. The core vulnerability is that high long-term rates pressure valuations by increasing the discount rate for future earnings. The article warns that Warsh's policy stance could intensify this pressure. Unlike Powell, Warsh is seen as more tolerant of market stress, more committed to quantitative tightening (QT/shrinking the Fed's balance sheet), and less inclined to provide implicit market support. His tenure at the Fed during the 2008 crisis shaped his skepticism about prolonged quantitative easing, believing it fuels asset bubbles without sufficiently boosting the real economy. While strong AI-driven earnings growth could theoretically offset higher rates, the narrative is currently concentrated in a few firms and hasn't yet translated into broad-based productivity gains for the wider economy. Therefore, the AI boom may not be enough to counter the valuation pressures from sustained high yields. Warsh's leadership could force the market to confront a new reality where the old supports—low long-term rates and a reliably supportive Fed—are no longer guaranteed, potentially triggering a reassessment of sky-high stock valuations.

marsbit05/19 04:58

The Warsh Storm Approaches

marsbit05/19 04:58

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

Trading Moment: Crude Oil, US Dollar, and US Treasury Yields Rise Amid War, Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $70,000 Against Macro Headwinds

Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, Brent crude oil surged past $100 per barrel, driving concerns over supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. This triggered a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, while US stock indices fell over 1.5%. The conflict has led to significant oil supply disruptions, with warnings that prices could exceed historical highs if the situation worsens. The Fed's rate cut expectations diminished, with traders pricing in less than one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. Despite macro headwinds, Bitcoin held above $70,000 for four consecutive days, consolidating within a $62,000–$72,000 range. Options data showed $1.8 billion in BTC options expiring, with a max pain point at $69,000. Technical indicators suggest support near short-term cost bases, though long-term holder selling pressure exists around $78,880. Market sentiment is mixed: bears warn of a potential drop below $60,000, while bulls highlight strong institutional buying and technical buy signals. Key data showed continued inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while fear and greed index indicated extreme fear. Notable market events include a $50 million DeFi slippage incident on Aave and several upcoming token unlocks. Top gainers included Pi Network (up 29.7%) and AI-related tokens.

marsbit03/13 07:47

Trading Moment: Crude Oil, US Dollar, and US Treasury Yields Rise Amid War, Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $70,000 Against Macro Headwinds

marsbit03/13 07:47

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