# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Fiscal Policy

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Fiscal Policy", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years of a New Era

The article "An Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years" analyzes the potential implications of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair under a Trump administration. It argues that Warsh represents not just a shift from dovish to hawkish policy, but a fundamental redefinition of the Fed's role. His appointment signals a move away from the Fed acting as a perpetual backstop for markets and government debt—a role perfected by Chair Powell during crises like the pandemic. Instead, Warsh advocates for monetary and fiscal discipline, opposing unconditional quantitative easing and emphasizing market rules over intervention. However, the US economy's reality—characterized by massive debt, deficit spending, and market dependence on low rates—severely limits any radical change. Warsh's proposed policies of raising rates and reducing the Fed's balance sheet risk triggering market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and political backlash, likely forcing a retreat to familiar stimulus measures. From Trump’s perspective, Warsh is a "controllable reformer" who can publicly push for fiscal restraint, forcing Congress to address unsustainable spending—while also serving as a convenient scapegoat if reforms fail. Ultimately, the core constraint remains America’s debt-dominated economy, which eliminates any possibility of a definitive solution. The coming years will involve managing, not solving, these problems through a painful and iterative process of half-measures and trade-offs—a era defined not by prosperity, but by the explicit return of economic constraints.

marsbit02/02 10:05

The Era Without Good Answers: Understanding Warsh, Trump, and the Next Four Years of a New Era

marsbit02/02 10:05

The 2026 U.S. Treasury "Maturity Wall" Approaches: Who Is the Market Paying For?

The US faces a significant "maturity wall" in 2026, with approximately $10 trillion in Treasury debt coming due—nearly 70% of which is short-term T-Bills. This massive refinancing need, equivalent to the total maturities from 2008-2010, poses a structural challenge. A key concern is the refinancing of low-coupon bonds (∼1%) issued during the low-rate era of 2021-2023 at potentially much higher market rates (∼4%+). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects net interest costs could reach $1.12 trillion in 2026, surpassing defense spending. The government faces a "impossible trilemma," struggling to simultaneously avoid a fiscal crisis, raise taxes significantly, and allow market-determined interest rates. Market pricing currently assumes no major tax hikes and no crisis, pushing pressure onto higher long-term yields. This could elevate the 10-year yield toward 5.5%, compressing equity valuations—particularly for rate-sensitive tech stocks. For investors, this period may bring heightened volatility rather than outright crisis. Strategies include anticipating the Federal Reserve's potential intervention if rates spike too high, selling volatility (e.g., writing out-of-the-money puts), and redefining assets: gold as a hedge against dollar credibility concerns, and long-term Treasuries as volatile instruments for policy reversal bets. The event underscores the need for portfolios resilient to higher rates and volatility, turning uncertainty into opportunity.

marsbit01/20 07:33

The 2026 U.S. Treasury "Maturity Wall" Approaches: Who Is the Market Paying For?

marsbit01/20 07:33

VanEck Q1 Global Market Outlook: Cryptocurrency Bullish Long-Term, Gold Demand Remains Strong

VanEck's Q1 Market Outlook highlights a clearer fiscal and monetary environment supporting a positive risk appetite for 2026. Key opportunities include AI-related stocks, which saw a significant valuation reset in late 2025, improving their attractiveness. Nuclear energy, linked to AI-driven power demand, also offers better risk-reward prospects after recent adjustments. Gold continues to strengthen as a global monetary asset, with strong central bank demand and a structural bullish outlook despite technical overbought signals. Business Development Companies (BDCs) now offer attractive yields and valuations after a challenging 2025. India remains a high-growth market due to structural reforms. Cryptocurrency, while maintaining a long-term bullish trend, presents mixed short-term signals as Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025. Policy stability and reduced fiscal risks in the U.S. further anchor market confidence.

marsbit01/15 10:36

VanEck Q1 Global Market Outlook: Cryptocurrency Bullish Long-Term, Gold Demand Remains Strong

marsbit01/15 10:36

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