Prediction Market Leaders Are Frantically Competing for Top-Tier Sports IPs

Odaily星球日报Опубликовано 2026-01-28Обновлено 2026-01-28

Введение

Prediction market platforms are aggressively securing exclusive partnerships with major sports leagues, as seen in Polymarket's recent multi-year deal with Major League Soccer (MLS). This follows similar agreements with the NHL and UFC. While these "official exclusive prediction market" designations don’t legally prevent other platforms from offering markets on these leagues (due to the current ambiguous regulatory landscape for prediction markets compared to sports betting), they provide significant advantages. The core benefits include access to official, high-quality data for more accurate odds and faster settlements, brand authorization for marketing, and collaborative integrity monitoring to prevent market manipulation. With sports-related markets dominating trading volume on leading platforms like Kalshi (over 90%) and Polymarket (43%), competition for these lucrative partnerships is intensifying. This trend mirrors the established sports betting industry, where data and brand deals are crucial for service quality. While the top players battle for mainstream sports, data suggests emerging platforms may find opportunity in niche markets, such as crypto-native events, to differentiate themselves.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

On January 27 local time in the United States, the commercial department of Major League Soccer (MLS), Soccer United Marketing (SUM), announced a multi-year cooperation agreement with the prediction market platform Polymarket. According to the agreement, Polymarket will become the official exclusive prediction market partner for the MLS league, MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup Final, and the Leagues Cup. Meanwhile, MLS will require Polymarket to use the league's official data and third-party integrity monitoring systems, and it is not allowed to set up betting items that the league deems easily manipulated or potentially involving insider information.

This is not the first time a sports league has partnered with a prediction market. As early as last October, the National Hockey League (NHL) reached multi-year licensing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket; later, in November last year, Polymarket also reached an agreement with the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), becoming UFC's official exclusive prediction market partner.

What does "official exclusive prediction market" mean? Does this mean that other unauthorized platforms will no longer be able to offer related markets in the future? What impact will this have on future competition? Although there are currently limited mature cases of prediction markets cooperating with sports events, and the observable samples are few, we can find similar answers to the above questions from the sports betting market, which has extremely similar service effects.

  • Odaily Note: For the similarities in services and differences in regulation between prediction markets and sports betting, as well as the regulatory博弈 surrounding prediction markets, please refer to our article from two weeks ago: "Prediction Markets Are Being Chased by the Old Order for Moving a Trillion-Dollar Cake of the Betting Industry."

Exclusive Authorization ≠ Market Licensing

First, let's answer the most critical question — Does the existence of exclusive authorization mean that other unauthorized platforms will no longer be able to offer related markets in the future?

The current situation in sports betting is that since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal law "Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act" (PASPA), which had prohibited commercial sports betting, on May 14, 2018, U.S. states have gained the autonomy to decide whether to legalize sports betting within their jurisdictions. In other words, the legality of betting services depends on state-level licensing, not commercial authorization from the leagues — in reality, when betting companies set up markets or provide betting services for various legal sports events, they do not need to obtain commercial authorization from the league operators.

However, in a few states like Tennessee, state-level sports betting regulatory agencies require betting companies to use the league's official data when providing in-play betting services, unless it can be proven that the data is not applicable or unavailable. This makes official authorization affect the scope of services of betting companies at a factual level — only by obtaining data authorization can they provide the most complete betting services.

But this logic does not directly apply to prediction markets at present. Due to the unclear (and objectively more lenient) regulatory system for prediction markets, before the final results of the appellate court or even the Supreme Court are determined, Polymarket and Kalshi are not obliged to follow similar requirements in betting regulations.

Therefore, although Polymarket has now obtained exclusive authorization from MLS, at least at this stage, it does not mean that other platforms like Kalshi are no longer allowed to set up MLS-related markets.

If Not Necessary, What Is the Significance of Authorization?

Although it is not "necessary to have authorization to open markets," in actual commercial operations, there are indeed a large number of commercial cooperation and authorization agreements between major sports leagues and betting companies. For example, the NFL has signed a long-term cooperation agreement with Genius Sports, authorizing real-time event data to betting companies through Genius as the sole official data provider, including rosters, match reports, technical statistics, etc.

For betting companies, the main significance of authorization is that they can directly obtain official data and brand authorization from the operators of sports events through commercial agreements to improve their service quality and user experience. If it is an exclusive authorization, an additional layer of exclusivity can be added on this basis.

The most core significance naturally lies in the quality and completeness of the data. Compared with data scraping through third-party channels, the official data obtained based on authorization agreements will definitely be more accurate, timely, and complete, which has a direct impact on improving the accuracy of betting odds, accelerating settlement efficiency, and expanding betting categories. As for brand and trademark authorization, it can allow betting companies to be more flexible in promoting related markets — they can use the logos of leagues, teams, and players while avoiding infringement risks.

Conversely, for sports events, reaching authorization agreements directly with betting companies also helps reduce the possibility of market manipulation (which may sound a bit abstract...). Both parties can standardize the betting range and share abnormal betting data to promptly detect potential manipulation possibilities. For example, in the cooperation between Polymarket and MLS, it has been clearly stated that markets that are easily manipulated by individuals, such as red and yellow card decisions, or those that may involve insider information, such as coach dismissals and player transfers, are not allowed.

Given the high overlap in service effects between prediction markets and sports betting, the significance of authorization agreements for the sports betting market will also take effect in prediction markets.

Head-on Clash of the Leaders, the Unconventional Second Tier

Sports betting has long been verified as a business with a huge scale and certain growth, and in prediction markets, sports events have gradually become the category with the highest transaction volume proportion.

Dovey Wan (@DoveyWan), founder of Primitive Ventures, yesterday posted the proportion of turnover of various types of events on several major prediction markets. Among them, the betting scale proportion of sports events on Kalshi has exceeded 90%, and the proportion of sports events on Polymarket has also reached 43% — obviously, sports events have become the core traffic source for these two leading prediction markets.

In the face of the huge存量规模 and visible增量空间, market competition is inevitable. Currently, among the four major U.S. sports leagues, only the NHL has stepped in and signed authorization agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket respectively, while the NFL, NBA, and MLB are still in a wait-and-see stage. It is expected that after Polymarket has successively seized the exclusive authorization of UFC and MLS, Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leaders with compliance and capital advantages, are likely to engage in more intense competition for the authorization of various top-tier sports events in the future, and there will inevitably be more exclusive agreements.

But the data also reveals another interesting phenomenon — perhaps due to cultural differences and user habits, emerging prediction markets on the other side of the world are moving towards截然不同的差异化道路. As shown in the previous figure, the proportion of event turnover围绕ing原生加密市场 events on Opinion is much higher than that on Kalshi and Polymarket. While the leaders are clashing head-on over the huge cake of sports events, choosing to take an unconventional path may be an opportunity for second-tier projects to catch up on a curve.

Связанные с этим вопросы

QWhat is the significance of the partnership between MLS's Soccer United Marketing (SUM) and Polymarket?

AThe partnership makes Polymarket the official exclusive prediction market partner for MLS, MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup, and Leagues Cup, allowing it to use official league data and integrity monitoring systems while restricting markets prone to manipulation or insider information.

QDoes an exclusive prediction market partnership like Polymarket's with MLS prevent other platforms from offering related markets?

ANo, it does not necessarily prevent other platforms from offering markets, as prediction markets currently operate under a less clear regulatory framework compared to sports betting, and authorization isn't legally required to open markets in most cases.

QWhat are the key benefits for a prediction market platform in securing an official data授权 from a sports league?

AOfficial data授权 provides more accurate, timely, and complete data, improving odds accuracy, settlement efficiency, and market variety. It also includes brand授权 for marketing and helps mitigate manipulation through regulated markets and shared monitoring.

QAccording to the data shared by Dovey Wan, what is the proportion of sports-related event volume on Kalshi and Polymarket?

ASports-related event volume accounts for over 90% on Kalshi and 43% on Polymarket, making it a core traffic source for these leading prediction markets.

QHow might the competition for top sports IP affect the prediction market landscape, particularly for second-tier projects?

AThe intense competition for exclusive sports授权 between giants like Kalshi and Polymarket may push second-tier projects to pursue差异化 strategies, such as focusing on crypto-native markets, as seen with Opinion's higher volume in that area.

Похожее

Three Scenarios for BTC's Future Direction and a Duel Between Two Strong Forces | Special Invited Analysis

**Title: Three Scenarios for BTC's Future Trajectory and a Key Duel | Invited Analysis** The market remains at a critical juncture. Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated broadly between $79,500 and $80,600, validating previous technical analysis. The current focus is on whether this marks the start of a new uptrend or a pause within a larger correction. **BTC Multi-Cycle Analysis & Three Possible Scenarios** BTC's daily chart structure, following its peak at $126,200 in October 2025, presents three primary technical scenarios based on Elliott Wave theory: 1. **Bullish Scenario (End of Correction):** The corrective A-B-C wave from $126,200 ended at the $60,000 low in February 2026. The current price action is the start of a major Wave I uptrend. A subsequent Wave II pullback would not break below $60,000. 2. **Bearish Scenario 1 (Complex Correction):** The correction is unfolding as an A-B-C-D-E pattern. The current move from $60,000 is a D-wave rally. After its completion, a final E-wave decline could potentially breach the $60,000 level. 3. **Bearish Scenario 2 (Larger Correction):** The entire move down from $126,200 to $60,000 was a large A-wave. The current rally is a B-wave correction within a larger A-B-C structure, to be followed by a C-wave decline below $60,000. *Analysis suggests Scenario 2 is less probable due to time disproportions between waves. The battle is effectively between the Bullish Scenario (1) and Bearish Scenario (3).* **Key BTC Levels & Weekly Strategy** On the 4-hour chart, BTC trades above a crucial consolidation zone ("Central Pivot C"). * **Key Resistance:** $83,500-$84,500; $89,000-$90,500. * **Key Support:** $78,500-$79,500 (pivot upper bound); $73,500-$75,000; $69,500-$70,500. **Weekly Outlook:** The market direction hinges on BTC's ability to hold above or break below the $78,500-$79,500 support zone. * **Mid-term Strategy:** Neutral/Wait-and-see stance due to unclear direction. * **Short-term Tactics:** Two contingency plans using 30% max capital: * **Plan A (Bullish):** Look for long entries if price holds above $78,500-$79,500 with confirming signals. Initial stop-loss below $78,500. * **Plan B (Bearish):** Consider short positions if price breaks below $73,500-$75,000 with confirming signals. Initial stop-loss above $76,500. **HYPE Analysis & Strategy** HYPE's daily chart shows a seven-segment structure from its January low of $20.46, forming a "rising pivot" zone. * **Key Level to Watch:** $45.76 (previous high). A break above would confirm the bullish structure remains intact. * **Short-term Strategy:** Focus on pivot zone boundaries ($38.41 upper, $34.44 lower). * **Long:** Consider on support near $38.41 with bullish confirmation signals. * **Short:** Consider on a break below $34.44 with bearish confirmation signals. * Position size must be below 30% with strict stop-loss discipline. **Risk Management Reminder:** Always set an initial stop-loss upon entry. Move stop-loss to breakeven at +1% profit, then trail it upwards to lock in profits dynamically. All views are based on technical analysis for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is inherently risky.

Odaily星球日报5 мин. назад

Three Scenarios for BTC's Future Direction and a Duel Between Two Strong Forces | Special Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报5 мин. назад

Sequoia Interview with Hassabis: Information is the Essence of the Universe, AI Will Open Up Entirely New Scientific Branches

Demis Hassabis, co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind and Nobel laureate, discusses the path to AGI and its profound implications in a Sequoia Capital interview. He outlines his lifelong dedication to AI, tracing his journey from game development (e.g., *Theme Park*)—a perfect AI testing ground—to neuroscience and finally founding DeepMind in 2009. He emphasizes the critical lesson of being "5 years, not 50 years, ahead of time" for successful entrepreneurship. Hassabis reiterates DeepMind's two-step mission: first, solve intelligence by building AGI; second, use AGI to tackle other complex problems. He highlights the transformative potential of "AI for Science," particularly in biology where tools like AlphaFold have revolutionized protein folding. He envisions AI-powered simulations drastically shortening drug discovery from years to weeks and enabling personalized medicine. Furthermore, he predicts AI will spawn new scientific disciplines, such as an engineering science for understanding complex AI systems (mechanistic interpretability) and novel fields enabled by high-fidelity simulators for complex systems like economics. He posits a fundamental worldview where information, not just matter or energy, is the essence of the universe, making AI's information-processing core uniquely suited to understanding reality. He defends classical Turing machines as potentially sufficient for modeling complex phenomena, including quantum systems, as demonstrated by AlphaFold. On consciousness, Hassabis suggests first building AGI as a powerful tool, then using it to explore deep philosophical questions. He believes components like self-awareness and temporal continuity are necessary for consciousness but that defining it fully remains an open challenge. He predicts AGI could arrive around 2030 and, once achieved, would be used to probe the deepest questions of science and reality, much as envisioned in David Deutsch's *The Fabric of Reality*.

链捕手23 мин. назад

Sequoia Interview with Hassabis: Information is the Essence of the Universe, AI Will Open Up Entirely New Scientific Branches

链捕手23 мин. назад

Morgan Stanley 2026 Semiconductor Report: Buy Packaging, Buy Testing, Buy China Chips, Avoid Traditional Tracks

Morgan Stanley 2026 Semiconductor Report: Buy Packaging, Buy Testing, Buy Chinese Chips; Avoid Traditional Segments. The core theme is the shift in AI compute supply from NVIDIA dominance to a three-track system of GPU + ASIC + China-local chips. The key opportunity is capturing share in this expansion, while non-AI semiconductors face marginalization due to resource reallocation to AI. Key investment conclusions, in order of priority: 1. **Advanced Packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) - Highest Conviction**: TSMC is the primary beneficiary of explosive demand, driven by massive cloud capex. Its pricing power and AI revenue share are rising significantly. 2. **Test Equipment - Undervalued & High-Growth Certainty**: Chip complexity is causing test times to double generationally, structurally driving handler/socket/probe card demand. Companies like Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn), WinWay, and MPI offer compelling value. 3. **China AI Chips (GPU/ASIC) - Long-Term Irreversible Trend**: Export controls are accelerating domestic substitution. Companies like Cambricon, with firm customer orders and SMIC's 7nm capacity support, are positioned to benefit from lower TCO (30-60% vs NVIDIA) and growing local cloud demand. 4. **Avoid Non-AI Semiconductors (Consumer/Auto/Industrial)**: These segments face a weak, structurally hindered recovery due to AI's resource "crowding-out" effect on capacity and supply chains. 5. **Memory - Severe Internal Divergence**: Strongly favor HBM (Hynix primary beneficiary) and NOR Flash (Macronix). Be cautious on interpreting price rises in DDR4/NAND as true demand recovery. The report emphasizes a 2026-2027 time window, stating the AI capital expenditure cycle is far from over. Key macro variables include persistent export controls and AI's systemic "crowding-out" effect on traditional semiconductor supply chains.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Morgan Stanley 2026 Semiconductor Report: Buy Packaging, Buy Testing, Buy China Chips, Avoid Traditional Tracks

marsbit1 ч. назад

Circle：Sluggish Market? The Top Stablecoin Stock Continues to Expand

Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, reported its Q1 2026 earnings on May 11th, Eastern Time. Against a backdrop of weak crypto market sentiment, USDC's average circulation in Q1 was $752 billion, with a modest 2% sequential increase to $770 billion by quarter-end. New minting volumes declined due to the poor crypto market, but remained high, indicating demand expansion beyond crypto trading. USDC's market share remained stable at 28% of the total stablecoin market, while competition from Tether's USDT persists. A key highlight was "Other Revenue," which reached $42 million, more than doubling year-over-year, though sequential growth slowed to 13%. This revenue stream, including fees from services like Web3 software, the Cipher payment network (CPN), and the Arc blockchain, is critical for diversifying away from interest income. Circle's internally held USDC share increased to 18%, helping to improve gross margin by 130 basis points to 41.4% by reducing external sharing costs. However, profitability was pressured as total revenue growth slowed, primarily due to the significant weight of interest income, which is tied to USDC规模 and Treasury rates. Adjusted EBITDA was $133 million with a 19.2% margin. Management maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted operating expenses ($570-$585 million) and other revenue ($150-$170 million). The long-term target for USDC's CAGR remains 40%, though near-term volatility is expected. The article concludes that while Circle's current valuation of $28 billion appears reasonable after a recent recovery, further upside depends on the pace of stable币 adoption and potential positive sentiment from the advancement of regulatory clarity acts like CLARITY.

链捕手1 ч. назад

Circle：Sluggish Market? The Top Stablecoin Stock Continues to Expand

链捕手1 ч. назад

Tech Stocks' Narrative Is Increasingly Relying on Anthropic

The narrative of tech stocks is increasingly relying on Anthropic. Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, has become central to the financial stories of major tech giants. Elon Musk dissolved xAI, merging it into SpaceX as SpaceXAI, and secured an exclusive deal to rent the massive "Colossus 1" supercomputing cluster to Anthropic. In return, Anthropic expressed interest in future space-based compute collaborations. Google and Amazon are also deeply invested. Google plans to invest up to $40 billion and provide significant compute power, while Amazon holds a 15-16% stake. Both companies reported massive quarterly profit surges largely due to valuation gains from their Anthropic holdings. Crucially, Anthropic has committed to multi-billion dollar cloud compute contracts with both Google Cloud and AWS. This creates a clear divide: the "A Camp" (Anthropic-Google-Musk) versus the "O Camp" (OpenAI-Microsoft). The A Camp's strategy intertwines equity, compute orders, and profits, making Anthropic a "systemic financial node." Its performance directly impacts its partners' financials and stock prices. In contrast, OpenAI, while leading in user traffic, faces commercialization challenges, lower per-user revenue, and a recently restructured relationship with Microsoft. The AI industry is shifting from a race for raw compute (symbolized by Nvidia) to a focus on monetizable applications, where Anthropic currently excels. However, this concentration of market hope on one company amplifies systemic risk. The rise of powerful open-source models like DeepSeek-V4 poses a significant threat, as they could undermine the value proposition of closed-source models like Claude. The article suggests ongoing geopolitical efforts to suppress such competitors will be a long-term strategic focus for Anthropic's allies.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Tech Stocks' Narrative Is Increasingly Relying on Anthropic

marsbit1 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы
活动图片

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow