The number “four” has always played a major role in crypto cycles.
Historically, Bitcoin has closely followed its halving pattern. Within each four-year cycle, scarcity drove strong post-halving rallies.
As the cycle matured, Bitcoin [BTC] rolled over into a bear phase before finding a bottom.
Notably, the latest halving took place in April 2024, dropping the block reward to 3.125 BTC, which puts us roughly 18 months into the current cycle. That said, this cycle isn’t tracking cleanly with prior ones.
A cycle behaving differently
Historically, the first year after a halving has produced solid upside for BTC.
Looking at the 2020 cycle, the halving set the supply shock in motion, leading to a 60% rally in 2021. That move was followed by a 64% correction in 2022 as BTC found its cycle low, before ripping 153% in 2023.
This time, despite the 2024 halving, Bitcoin is tracking very differently.
Technically, its price is on pace to close the first post-halving year down roughly 7%, with less than two weeks left in Q4.
In that context, it raises a bigger question: Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle starting to lose its reliability?
New fundamentals are rewriting Bitcoin playbook
Bitcoin might be breaking free from its usual 4-year boom-and-bust cycle.
And that’s good news for the bulls.
For starters, BTC may avoid sharp drops like the 73% pullback in 2018 or the 64% dip in 2022, which were largely hype-driven. Instead, CryptoQuant data showed things may be changing.
Specifically, a mix of four key factors is helping stabilize BTC, keeping it in a loop-like pattern, limiting sudden swings, and sustaining FOMO, as reflected in Exchange Reserves, with 140k BTC accumulated in Q4 alone.
Meanwhile, the launch of ETFs in 2024 is adding another layer of support.
Together, these trends show that Bitcoin is maturing.
In past four-year cycles, hype drove extreme BTC moves. For instance, the 64% drop after 2020’s 300% run or the 125% rally in 2016 that led to a 73% dip in 2018.
This time, the cycle is different.
With stronger fundamentals, BTC is breaking out of its sudden boom-bust pattern, making the current pullback look more like part of a prolonged bull market, or a Bitcoin “supercycle.”
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year boom-bust pattern is showing signs of change, with the 2024 halving not triggering the usual sharp rallies or corrections.
- Institutional inflows, falling exchange reserves, ETF launches, and broader macro support are helping BTC stabilize, creating what many are calling a Bitcoin “supercycle.”
