Author: Viee Xiaowei
Original Title: Will the Crypto Industry Be Better in 2026?
In the last few months of 2025, the atmosphere of a bear market began to spread.
Bitcoin fell from its high of $120,000, ETF inflows stalled at one point, various cryptocurrencies diverged in their trends, and once-popular meme coins also began to lose attention. Compared to the end of 2021, this time there was no sudden regulatory crackdown, and aside from the 1011 crash, there didn't seem to be a severe liquidity crisis, yet it still felt like something was off.
If 2025 was a year of recalibrating true and false value in the crypto world, will crypto be better in 2026?
This article attempts to find the answer. Perhaps we need to accept the fact that the crypto industry may be entering an era no longer driven by unilateral rises or "casino narratives."
01 Macro Winds Warm, Bitcoin Still Stands at the Forefront
Over the past year, Bitcoin's price performance and market positioning have undergone significant changes.
After hitting a new all-time high of $120,000, the market began to pull back, volatility increased, and market sentiment gradually cooled. Unlike past rallies driven by retail investors, the main force behind this round of increases was institutional funds behind ETFs. From a cost perspective, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out last month that the average holding cost of U.S. ETFs was $79,000, which many also see as one of the price support levels. Therefore, Bitcoin's current trend is increasingly resembling a high-volatility institutional asset—on one hand, it has an anti-inflation positioning similar to gold, and on the other hand, like tech stocks, it is influenced by macro sentiment and risk appetite, exhibiting beta attributes.
From a broader macro perspective, 2025 was a year of回暖 (warming) sentiment for global risk assets. AI was the main theme, U.S. stocks repeatedly hit new highs, and the Fed announced three rate cuts in December, signaling a return to a阶段 of warming expectations for liquidity. The FOMC's year-end economic projections also showed that the U.S. GDP growth expectation for 2026 was revised up from 1.8% to 2.2%–2.5%. There is a general expectation that easing will continue next year, which could be a positive for assets like Bitcoin.
But the market is not without risks. If the economy suddenly weakens in 2026 or inflation unexpectedly rebounds, risk assets could still face significant adjustments.
02 Regulatory Turning Point: Policy Movements in the U.S. and Hong Kong
Another important change in 2025 was the formal framing of regulations.
In the U.S., two key bills were passed. The first is the stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act), which clarifies the definition of stablecoins, reserve requirements, and issuance qualification thresholds, providing a compliance path for mainstream stablecoin issuers. This bill was signed into law by the President in July 2025 and will take effect 18 months after signing or 120 days after regulators issue final rules. The second is the Crypto-Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act), which systematically划分 (delineates) the boundary between "security tokens" (regulated by the SEC) and "commodity tokens" (regulated by the CFTC) and proposes tiered regulation. This bill will be submitted to the Senate for审议 (deliberation) in January, after which it may require the President's signature, with an effective date to be determined. Meanwhile, the SEC has also accelerated the approval of more crypto ETFs, opening channels for institutional products.
In Hong Kong, regulatory步伐 (pace) also accelerated. In 2025, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) introduced a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers, clearly requiring all Hong Kong-based stablecoin issuances to be licensed. This means that future issuances of stablecoins like USD or RMB in Hong Kong will need to meet certain capital and compliance requirements. Additionally, HashKey was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first compliant platform with crypto trading as its core business to IPO in Hong Kong, marking a milestone.
Overall, the regulatory trends in both the U.S. and Hong Kong are about抑制 (curbing) illegal speculation while opening channels for legal business, pushing the industry towards institutionalization and compliance.
03 Three Main Themes: Stablecoins, Prediction Markets, On-Chain Stocks
Over the past few years, the most stable growth curve in the crypto industry has actually been stablecoins.
By 2025, the global issuance of stablecoins had exceeded $300 billion, with the two major coins, USDT and USDC, accounting for over 80% combined. Stablecoins are becoming part of the global payment network, with their usage scenarios渗透 (penetrating) into daily merchants and cross-border settlements, whether it's USDT or USDC.
In 2026, stablecoins are likely to be closer to the real world than ever before. Traditional giants like Visa, Stripe, and PayPal are already using stablecoins for settlements. For example, Stripe already supports merchants using stablecoins for subscriptions, with real,落地 (implemented) services.
Image Source: a16z
Furthermore, with clearer regulations, treasury-backed stablecoins (backed by high-quality assets) and regional stablecoins are expected to emerge, such as digital currency bridge projects promoted by Japan and the EU.
Another area worth watching is prediction markets.
Originally, most people considered prediction market products too niche or non-compliant. But now, under themes like U.S. elections, sports events, and economic data, they are gradually becoming a combination of "on-chain betting + pricing tools."
For example, Kalshi, which obtained a formal futures license from the U.S. CFTC, can legally launch prediction trades related to macroeconomic data, and its valuation has climbed to $11 billion. Polymarket, relying on topics like U.S. elections and entertainment events, has also become a place for大量 (a large number of) users to place bets and gauge sentiment.
In 2026, prediction markets may move beyond pure speculation. For instance, users aren't just betting on wins or losses but are using money to vote, expressing their judgment on the probability of a certain outcome. This collective intelligence pricing method could be referenced by media, research institutions, and even trading strategies. Additionally, AI will open up new possibilities for prediction markets, making them不再只靠 (no longer rely solely on) human betting but capable of automatically analyzing data, placing orders, and even generating new markets. This will make prediction markets faster, smarter, and gradually evolve into a tool for judging risks and trends, not just a place for gambling.
The last不可忽视的 (not-to-be-ignored) area is the development of on-chain stocks.
Simply put, the crypto industry is not only trading crypto assets but also starting to bring real-world assets on-chain. For example, Securitize plans to launch the first fully compliant on-chain stock trading platform in 2026. Tokens purchased on-chain by users will correspond to real company stocks,享有 (enjoying) voting rights and dividends.
04 Emerging Narratives: New Directions That Might Take Off in 2026
At the same time, a batch of seemingly more边缘 (marginal) directions are also worth关注 (attention). The following content is referenced from a16z's latest report "17 Exciting Directions for the Crypto Industry in 2026"
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/
Image Source: a16z
1. AI Agent Identity Issues
As AI agents begin to participate in transactions, browsing, ordering, and even interacting with smart contracts, a key question arises: how do these non-human identities prove "who they are"?
The "Know Your Agent" (KYA) concept proposed by a16z aims to solve this problem. On-chain, any agent initiating a transaction must have clear permissions and归属 (attribution), requiring cryptographic signature credentials for transactions. In 2026, this may become a prerequisite for the large-scale deployment of on-chain AI.
2. x402-like Protocols and Micropayments
a16z predicts that as AI Agents widely trade data, call computing power, and read interfaces, we will enter an era of "automatic settlement + programmable payments."
No longer requiring manual payments, AI Agents can identify needs and automatically execute payments. This is the real-world problem that protocols like x402 are solving. In 2026, their presence will become increasingly strong.
3. Privacy Chains Will Receive More Attention
a16z points out a key trend: compared to converging performance competition, privacy will become the core moat of future public chains. In the past, people worried that privacy chains were不利于 (not conducive to) regulation and lacked transparency. But now the problem is reversed—business data is too sensitive, and without privacy protection, compliant institutions simply dare not go on-chain. Precisely because of this, chains with default privacy protection are becoming attractive. Once users use these chains, their data won't be easily leaked, migration costs are higher, and自然形成 (naturally forming) new user stickiness, which is essentially a network effect.
4. Staked Media
In the era of AI-generated content, judging whether a statement is reliable depends not only on who said it but also on whether there is a cost associated with saying it. Therefore, a16z proposes a new media model where content creators not only speak out but also "stake" their positions through locking assets, prediction markets, NFT credentials, etc.
For example, if you publish a bullish view on ETH, you simultaneously lock your own held ETH as collateral; if you make an election prediction, you also place a bet on-chain. These公开的 (public) interest bindings will make content more than just empty words. If this model works, it could become the new norm for on-chain media in the future.
Of course, the a16z report proposes far more than these few directions. This article focuses on selecting 4 of the trends we believe are more representative for expansion. Other directions are also worth关注 (attention), such as: stablecoin on/off-ramp upgrades, RWA crypto-native transformation, stablecoins driving bank ledger system upgrades, diversified wealth management, the rise of AI research assistants, real-time content profit-sharing mechanisms for AI agents, decentralized anti-quantum communication, "privacy as a service" becoming infrastructure, DeFi security paradigm shifts, intelligent prediction markets, verifiable cloud computing, focusing on product-market fit (PMF), and crypto bills unleashing more potential of blockchain.
Interested readers can refer to the original a16z report for further in-depth understanding.
05 The Crypto Industry is Moving Beyond Internal Circulation
The early growth of the crypto industry was largely built on a self-congratulatory system where issuing coins, rebates, and airdrops attempted to attract more insiders to stay. But this closed loop is gradually being broken by reality.
From Polymarket to USDT, to the cross-border application of USDC, we see more and more people who are not Web3 users utilizing blockchain tools. Street vendors in Lagos may not understand wallet structures, but they know using USDT is much faster than bank transfers. In high-inflation countries, savers flock to USDC for避险 (hedging) rather than speculation. One of the most直观的 (intuitive) changes appears in payment scenarios in developing countries. For example, the Philippine exchange Coins.ph partnered with Circle to open a low-cost USDC remittance channel.
The trend behind this indicates that crypto technology is being embedded into real-world scenarios like cross-border payments and remittance channels. The true future of crypto might lie in how to use technology to solve real problems, allowing more ordinary people to use blockchain unconsciously.
06 The Crypto Industry from a KOL Perspective
A recent discussion on "whether spending years in the crypto industry is worth it" was essentially a collective industry复盘 (review).
Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter @nic_carter continued the reflection on "wasting 8 years in crypto,"坦言 (frankly admitting) that the areas that have achieved significant PMF (Product-Market Fit) so far are still only Bitcoin, stablecoins, DEXs, and prediction markets. He chooses to maintain pragmatic idealism, accepting that bubbles and狂热 (mania) are part of the path, not the whole story.
Dragonfly partner Haseeb @hosseeb was more blunt, pointing out that the problem isn't the existence of the casino, but that if you only focus on the casino's glamour, you miss the industry's real transformation. He believes cryptocurrency is a better载体 (carrier) for finance; it will forever change the nature of money and hopes the industry remains patient: "The industrial revolution also took 50 years to change productivity; we're only 15 years in."
XHunt & Biteye founder @DeFiTeddy2020's summary was also extremely real. In his view, the crypto industry quickly exposes the essence of finance—facing project failures, price decoupling from fundamentals, and even insider trading, manipulation, and harvesting. It is not a温床 (hotbed) for idealism but a market that constantly educates participants with real money,非常磨练 (greatly tempering) the mind.
Regarding the industry's future direction, KOL 币圈女菩萨 @xincctnnq (Crypto Bodhisattva) provided a long-term perspective. What crypto真正尝试解决 (is truly trying to solve) are long-term issues like the monetary system, contract execution, digital property rights, capital market efficiency, and financial inclusion. Even if the results are distant and the process is rough, it is worth continuous尝试 (attempts).
Furthermore, trader & analyst @CryptoPainter offered a more market-structure-oriented explanation: the crypto market repeats its consistent operating mechanism—"value investment" -> "belief investment" -> "emotional speculation" -> "complete disappointment," and then starts over. This cycle appeared in 2018 and 2022 and is destined to happen again. Gamblers and casinos are not anomalies but part of consuming bubbles and completing market self-regulation.
Figment Capital member DougieDeLuca @DougieDeLuca's stance reads like a阶段性总结 (stage summary). He直言 (stated bluntly) that "Crypto is dead" doesn't mean prices go to zero or blocks stop working, but that "Crypto as a closed industry form is dying." True success should be integrating Crypto technology into ordinary people's daily lives.
From a more institutional perspective, KOL & researcher @lanhubiji mentioned that while old users are withdrawing, newcomers with traditional finance backgrounds are entering. In their perception, crypto is a long-term trend that has entered a path of standardization, interoperability, and scalability. In three years, a全新的 (completely new) on-chain financial era, the era of on-chain Wall Street, will gradually emerge.
LD Capital founder Yi Lihua @Jackyi_ld's judgment is closer to the current cycle level. He pointed out that the recent crypto downturn is more of a阶段性共振 (phase resonance) of liquidity and macro events. Currently, negative factors are gradually消化 (digested). With the dual利好 (positive factors) of rate cut expectations and crypto policies, he remains optimistic about the subsequent market.
In terms of broader regulation and industry structure, the judgment of Xiao Feng, Chairman of Hashkey Group, is particularly systematic. He proposed three future trends:
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First, the global crypto regulatory trend is shifting from "voluntary acceptance" to "mandatory inclusion." Governments are gradually clearing out offshore gray areas, and crypto trading is moving towards licensing. Taking Hong Kong as an example, all unlicensed exchanges must exit the market since June 2023.
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Second, crypto is no longer just native assets like BTC and ETH. More traditional financial assets are migrating on-chain through tokenization, forming a new type of compliant, regulated securitized market.
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Third, moving from "off-chain" to "on-chain," he predicts that the second half of 2026 might be the key node for the雏形落地 (initial formation) of "on-chain Wall Street."
07 Conclusion
Will crypto be better in 2026?
If you're expecting "prices to skyrocket," the answer might be不一定 (not necessarily).
But if you're asking whether the industry is moving towards a more real and useful direction, then the answer is也许是肯定的 (perhaps affirmative).
From crypto ETFs to stablecoin payments, from on-chain treasuries to prediction markets, from on-chain Agents to decentralized AI—all these indicate one thing:
The crypto industry may begin to land in directions closer to the real world and might increasingly resemble a twin financial system parallel to the real world's financial system, resonating with stock markets, macro liquidity, policy expectations, and even AI cycles.
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