Ethena’s retracement rally, explained: Heavy volume, light conviction

ambcryptoОпубликовано 2026-03-04Обновлено 2026-03-04

Введение

Ethena (ENA) experienced an 11.55% surge in Open Interest and a 5.08% price increase, bouncing from a key support level at $0.094. This was accompanied by a spike in whale activity, suggesting potential "smart money" accumulation. However, analysis indicates this is likely a short-term relief rally within a broader bearish trend, not a market bottom. A bullish divergence on the RSI signaled slowing downward momentum, but the rally is viewed as a healthy retracement for a liquidity sweep toward the $0.120-$0.125 zone. For a true trend reversal, ENA must break the $0.131 resistance. The current move is expected to be short-lived before the bearish trend resumes.

Ethena [ENA] witnessed an 11.55% increase in Open Interest in the past 24 hours as the token prices bounced higher by 5.08%. The increased speculative demand came in as ENA bounced from the local support at $0.094.

In a recent report, AMBCrypto noted that ENA whale orders spiked in the spot markets. Large orders during significant price dips generally indicate smart money stepping in, which can halt the downtrend.

Yet, this sign alone will not be enough to mark the market bottom. A look at the higher timeframe price charts revealed why the ENA bullish momentum might be short-lived.

Bullish divergence and a healthy ENA retracement

No market moves in a straight line for an extended period of time, and Ethena was no different. It has trended downward throughout 2026, with sporadic green days to ward off unrelenting bearish pressure.

In February, the downward momentum of ENA began to slow down. As the month progressed, a bullish divergence began to develop on the 1-day chart.

The RSI was making higher lows while the price made lower lows. Therefore, the bounce from the $0.095-$0.097 lows was only a relief rally.

The high speculative interest, trading volume, and swift gains were likely part of a healthy retracement. Traders shouldn’t be preparing to buy the bounce but sell into it.

Short-term ENA expectations

The 2-week liquidation heatmap showed that the $0.120-$0.125 area was a nearby notable magnetic zone. In the short term, it was highly likely that ENA would gravitate higher to sweep this liquidity cluster.

However, this was right at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour chart. The OBV was challenging the local highs, but this cannot be taken as evidence for an imminent bullish trend reversal.

Treating the trend in the context of the wider structure, the $0.131 high must be breached before ENA bulls can expect a trend reversal.


Final Summary

  • Ethena has made strong short-term gains on the back of heavy trading volume and speculative interest.
  • It appeared likely that the move would turn out to be a liquidity sweep targeting $0.123-$0.125 before falling back into a bear-dominated market.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

Связанные с этим вопросы

QWhat was the percentage increase in Ethena's Open Interest and token price in the past 24 hours?

AEthena witnessed an 11.55% increase in Open Interest and a 5.08% increase in token price.

QWhat recent market activity suggested 'smart money' might be stepping into ENA?

AThe spike in ENA whale orders in the spot markets during significant price dips indicated that smart money was stepping in.

QAccording to the article, why might the recent ENA bullish momentum be short-lived?

AThe bullish momentum might be short-lived because the bounce was identified as a relief rally within a larger bearish trend, and the price needs to breach the $0.131 high for a true trend reversal.

QWhat is the significance of the $0.120-$0.125 price zone for ENA in the short term?

AThe $0.120-$0.125 area is a nearby notable magnetic zone and liquidity cluster that ENA was highly likely to gravitate toward to sweep liquidity before potentially falling back.

QWhat key indicator on the 1-day chart showed a bullish divergence for ENA in February?

AA bullish divergence was observed as the RSI was making higher lows while the price was making lower lows.

Похожее

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is facing significant technical challenges as its growth outpaces its current infrastructure on Polygon. Users are experiencing laggy transactions, unresponsive orders, and delayed confirmations, severely impacting the trading experience. In response, DeFi Engineering VP Josh Stevens outlined a comprehensive engineering overhaul. The plan includes reducing on-chain data delays, fixing order cancellation issues, rebuilding the central limit order book (CLOB), improving website performance, and developing a unified SDK and API. A major revelation was the ongoing "chain migration," indicating a potential move away from Polygon. The core issue is that Polymarket has evolved from a simple prediction market into a high-frequency trading platform, making Polygon's limitations—such as block space, gas fees, and block time—a ceiling for further growth. The migration is not just a simple chain switch but a fundamental rebuild of its trading system to support more complex products like perpetual contracts (Perps). This announcement has sparked competition among chains like Solana, Sui, and Algorand, all vying to host Polymarket. For Polygon, losing this key application, which contributes significantly to its gas fee revenue, would be a major setback. The real test for Polymarket is no longer attracting users but proving it can provide a stable, reliable trading environment that retains them.

Odaily星球日报55 мин. назад

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Odaily星球日报55 мин. назад

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

The author, Alex Xu, explains his decision to significantly reduce his Bitcoin holdings (from full to ~30% of his portfolio) during the current bull cycle, citing a lowered long-term outlook for BTC's price appreciation in the next cycle. He outlines six key reasons for this reduced expectation: 1. **Diminished Growth Drivers:** The narrative of exponential user adoption has largely played out with institutional ETF adoption. The next major growth phase—adoption by sovereign national reserves or central banks—seems unlikely in the near future. 2. **Personal Opportunity Cost:** More attractive investment opportunities have emerged in other assets, such as undervalued companies. 3. **Industry-Wide Contraction:** The broader crypto industry is struggling, with most Web3 business models (SocialFi, GameFi, DePIN) failing. This overall萧条 (depression) reduces the fundamental demand and consensus for Bitcoin. 4. **Strain on Major Buyer:** MicroStrategy, a major corporate buyer of BTC, faces rising financing expenses for its debt, which could slow its purchasing rate and create significant marginal pressure on the market. 5. **Increased Competition from Gold:** The emergence of "tokenized gold" has closed the functional gap (portability, divisibility) between physical gold and Bitcoin, offering a strong competitor in the non-sovereign store-of-value space. 6. **Security Budget Concerns:** The block reward halving continues to exacerbate the long-standing issue of funding Bitcoin's network security, with new fee source explorations like Ordinals and L2s largely failing. The author's decision to hold a significant (though reduced) position reflects a cautious, not bearish, outlook. He remains open to increasing his exposure if the fundamental reasons for his skepticism change or if new positive catalysts emerge.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

marsbit1 ч. назад

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran has announced a comprehensive plan to assert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint. The proposed measures include requiring all vessels to obtain Iranian permission for passage, imposing fees for security, environmental protection, and navigation management—preferably paid in Iranian rials—and absolutely banning Israeli ships. Vessels from countries deemed hostile by Iran’s top security bodies may also be barred. Analysts suggest Iran’s motives are multifaceted: increasing pressure on the U.S. and Israel by leveraging control over oil transit to influence global prices and inflation; creating a new revenue stream, potentially exceeding $7.7 billion annually, to counter Western sanctions and support postwar reconstruction; and using transit permissions as bargaining chips in future negotiations, notably with the U.S. However, the plan faces significant practical and diplomatic challenges. Enforcing comprehensive interception and fee collection in the busy waterway, patrolled by international military forces, would be difficult. The U.S. has already countering with a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to intercept any ship paying fees, potentially strangling Iran’s oil exports and fee revenue. Broad international opposition, led by European and Gulf states, and legal controversies further complicate implementation. The proposal may ultimately serve more as a negotiating tactic than a feasible policy, with its execution remaining highly uncertain.

marsbit2 ч. назад

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit2 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы
活动图片