Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Blockchain Partner: Crypto Assets Are Undergoing a Great Value Reassessment

The cryptocurrency industry is experiencing a paradox: while achieving unprecedented success in adoption and infrastructure, market sentiment remains deeply pessimistic due to a significant decoupling between utility and token prices. Key successes include record stablecoin transaction volumes ($33 trillion in 2025), widespread adoption of crypto-native applications like Polymarket and Phantom, and major traditional financial institutions implementing blockchain strategies. However, token prices have stagnated or declined, revealing a structural shift in value capture: economic value is increasingly accumulating at the application and distribution layers (e.g., wallets, exchanges, and companies like Coinbase and Tether) rather than at the infrastructure layer (L1s, L2s, protocols). This revaluation challenges long-held investment theses that assumed token holders would benefit directly from protocol-scale adoption. The article argues that controlling user relationships and distribution channels now dominates value capture, commoditizing underlying infrastructure. While tokens may evolve to better align with application-layer economics, the current market demands clearer, direct links between usage, revenue, and token value.

比推02/21 16:10

Blockchain Partner: Crypto Assets Are Undergoing a Great Value Reassessment

比推02/21 16:10

Four Years of Transformation: A Deep Dive into the Evolution of Coinbase's Business Model

Coinbase has undergone a significant business transformation from 2021 to 2025, shifting from heavy reliance on retail trading revenue (88% in 2021) to a more diversified model. By 2025, retail trading contributed only 48% of total revenue, while subscription and service revenue grew to 41% of total revenue—driven largely by stablecoin income (19% of total revenue, via the Circle partnership), staking, and Coinbase One subscriptions. Total revenue in 2025 increased by 9.4% year-over-year but remains 6.4% below the 2021 peak. Transaction revenue fell 40% compared to 2021. The company improved operational efficiency, reducing costs by 45% in 2023 through layoffs and restructuring, resulting in a 21% operating margin in 2025. Coinbase's balance sheet is strong with $11.3 billion in cash, minimal debt cost (~1% interest), and significant crypto holdings. However, it faces risks including competition, regulation, market cyclicality, interest rate sensitivity, and concentration in its Circle partnership. Compared to Robinhood, Coinbase trades at a lower valuation multiple despite a stronger balance sheet, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term crypto investors.

比推02/20 19:53

Four Years of Transformation: A Deep Dive into the Evolution of Coinbase's Business Model

比推02/20 19:53

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

The article investigates whether a profitable "golden key" strategy exists in prediction markets, using an analysis of 27.73 million transactions over 3,082 fifteen-minute BTC prediction markets. The study debunks several common approaches: Technical analysis based solely on price action, tested across 690 combinations of entry/exit points, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, yielded no positive expected value. Even high-win-rate strategies, like buying at 90% and selling at 99%, resulted in negative expectations due to poor risk-reward ratios. Similarly, arbitrage strategies aiming to profit from YES+NO prices below 1 were also unprofitable after accounting for real-world constraints. The research identifies two potentially viable strategies: 1. **Momentum-based trading**: A brief ~30-second window exists after sharp BTC price moves (>$150-$200) where prediction market token prices lag, allowing manual traders to capitalize on this inefficiency before algorithms adjust. 2. **Fair value model**: A model calculating a token's theoretical win probability based on BTC's volatility and time to expiry revealed that markets are inefficient. Profitable opportunities arise only when tokens trade at a significant discount (>10 cents) to their fair value. Buying at a premium, even with high win probability, leads to negative expected returns. The conclusion advises traders to abandon pure price-based technical analysis, focus on the underlying asset (BTC), respect probability valuations, and only buy at a discount to fair value to avoid being systematically outperformed by algorithms.

marsbit02/20 04:02

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

marsbit02/20 04:02

Crypto Is Not Dead, Crypto Is Reborn

Cryptocurrency is evolving to serve fundamental human impulses that have persisted for millennia: speculation, ownership, and value transfer. Historically, humans have always sought to wager on uncertain outcomes, from ancient dice games to modern financial markets. Traditional finance built complex, restrictive systems around these impulses, but crypto is removing friction and gatekeeping. Platforms like Hyperliquid demonstrate this by processing 2% of global silver trading volume in a month via a decentralized, permissionless protocol—attracting users who desired exposure but were hindered by traditional infrastructure. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi monetize opinions and are gaining mainstream traction through partnerships with major media outlets and platforms like Robinhood. Beyond speculation, crypto addresses the need for ownership through tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), like U.S. Treasuries and gold, making them globally accessible and programmable. BlackRock’s move to trade its tokenized treasury fund on Uniswap signals institutional recognition of this infrastructure. Stablecoins, meanwhile, have found product-market fit in countries with weak currencies, enabling everyday transactions where traditional systems fail. Despite price volatility and past failures, crypto’s underlying infrastructure is becoming invisible yet essential—fulfilling ancient human desires to speculate, transfer value, and assert ownership without traditional barriers. The technology is maturing by eliminating friction, expanding access, and embedding itself into the fabric of global finance.

比推02/19 19:47

比推02/19 19:47

Bubblemaps links Hayden Davis to early major $PUMP dump

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has linked wallets associated with Hayden Davis to a major early distribution of the $PUMP token. According to their analysis, a wallet invested $50 million USDC into Pump.fun and received 12.5 billion $PUMP tokens at launch, becoming the second-largest private sale participant. Approximately 80% of these tokens were quickly transferred to centralized exchanges, with the remaining supply sold over time through secondary wallets, realizing an estimated $15 million in profit. Despite a steady increase in $PUMP holders, surpassing 320,000 addresses, the token's price has experienced a prolonged downtrend since its launch peak. This divergence suggests a distribution phase where early investors sold into retail demand. Bubblemaps clarified that its report focuses on on-chain behavior and transaction patterns, not alleging wrongdoing, but emphasizes the need for transparency in token launches. Neither Hayden Davis nor Pump.fun has publicly responded to the findings.

ambcrypto02/19 16:22

Bubblemaps links Hayden Davis to early major $PUMP dump

ambcrypto02/19 16:22

Sky (SKY) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030

Sky (SKY) is a Web3 cryptocurrency launched in 2013, currently ranked 46th by market cap. As of the analysis, it trades at $0.06491 with a market cap of $1.49B. Technical analysis for 2026 suggests a horizontal channel pattern, indicating consolidation. Key resistance levels are identified at $0.07175 and $0.08813, while support levels are at $0.05291 and $0.04175. Indicators show a bullish 50-day MA trend, neutral RSI, weak volume, low trend strength (ADX), and high volatility (RVI). SKY's price movement correlates with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Long-term predictions are bullish: $0.7 (2027), $0.9 (2028), $1 (2029), and $1.2 (2030), though bearish scenarios suggest much lower values. The token's ATH is $0.1014, reached in December 2024.

TheNewsCrypto02/19 09:50

Sky (SKY) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030

TheNewsCrypto02/19 09:50

2026 Chinese New Year: Why Are Giants Splurging 4.5 Billion in Frenzied Subsidies for AI Payments?

The 2026 Chinese New Year saw tech giants spending over 4.5 billion yuan in subsidies to promote AI-powered voice transactions—a figure surpassing historical spending peaks in past tech wars. Despite the efficiency of existing payment methods like QR codes, companies are aggressively pushing voice-based AI payment systems. This shift stems from a deeper battle over controlling user "intent" rather than mere transactions. The article contrasts two approaches: vertical integration, exemplified by Alibaba’s Qwen, which operates within its own closed ecosystem (e-commerce, payments, logistics), and horizontal standardization, as attempted by ByteDance’s Doubao phone, which aimed to interoperate across platforms but was blocked by major players like Tencent and Alibaba. The core conflict is about who captures and fulfills user intent—the next frontier in reducing decision-making friction and dominating future commercial gateways. While vertical integration strengthens existing ecosystems, horizontal models face resistance due to entrenched interests. The massive subsidies are investments in payment technology but in securing priority access to user intentions, shaping the next decade of digital commerce.

marsbit02/19 03:58

2026 Chinese New Year: Why Are Giants Splurging 4.5 Billion in Frenzied Subsidies for AI Payments?

marsbit02/19 03:58

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

Title: When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: 8 Failed Classic Crypto Indicators and Their Structural Causes The crypto market in early 2026 is marked by confusion as traditional on-chain and technical indicators have collectively failed. This analysis examines eight key metrics that have lost predictive power and explores the underlying structural market shifts causing their obsolescence. The core findings reveal that institutionalization has fundamentally altered market microstructure. Bitcoin ETF inflows created sustained demand, breaking the pure halving-driven narrative. The 2024 halving's supply reduction became negligible against Bitcoin's multi-trillion dollar market cap. This institutional participation smoothed volatility from over 100% to ~50%, preventing the extreme moves needed to trigger indicators like the Pi Cycle Top (relying on 111-day/350-day MA crossover) and Rainbow Chart (based on logarithmic growth curves). The MVRV Z-Score failed as institutional buying raised the realized value floor, compressing its historical range. The "altcoin season" never materialized because ETF flows went exclusively to Bitcoin, not rotating to altcoins, while AI and precious metals diverted capital from crypto overall. The Fear & Greed Index became unreliable as institutional flows decoupled from retail sentiment. The NVT ratio malfunctioned as on-chain volume no longer represented real economic activity. Finally, PlanB's S2F model failed spectacularly (predicting $500K vs. $120K actual) by ignoring demand-side variables and the impossibility of exponential growth at Bitcoin's current scale. Ultimately, these indicators failed because they relied on outdated assumptions: extreme volatility, retail-driven markets, and pure on-chain data analysis. The market has transitioned from a digital commodity to a macro asset influenced by Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity rather than just halving cycles. Investors must understand these structural changes rather than seeking new universal indicators.

marsbit02/19 03:50

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

marsbit02/19 03:50

‘Hidden in plain sight’? $436mln BlackRock IBIT stake tied to Chinese capital

Following the approval of U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional investment has grown significantly, with total holdings reaching over 682,830 BTC valued at $54.49 billion. Recent SEC filings reveal that a significant portion of this inflow may be tied to Chinese capital. An entity named Laurore Ltd., linked to Hong Kong via filer Zhang Hui, holds a $436 million stake in BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF. This is believed to be a structured workaround for Chinese investors to access Bitcoin, which remains banned for institutional holdings in mainland China. The amount invested through BlackRock is roughly 1.6 times the total net asset value of all Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, which stands at only $264.9 million. Despite this inflow, the broader institutional Bitcoin market has faced severe outflows, with AUM dropping 66.6% since its peak, reflecting heightened caution and accelerated liquidations even beyond Bitcoin’s price decline. Market sentiment remains bearish, with whales and large holders continuing to sell, posing risks of further drawdowns.

ambcrypto02/18 13:32

‘Hidden in plain sight’? $436mln BlackRock IBIT stake tied to Chinese capital

ambcrypto02/18 13:32

From Crypto to the Entire Market: Exchanges No Longer Just Sell Coins. Will TradFi Become the Next Growth Curve?

The rise of TradFi (Traditional Finance) products on major crypto exchanges marks a strategic shift from crypto-only trading toward multi-asset platforms. Driven by macro volatility, user demand for diversification, and mature infrastructure like stablecoin margining, exchanges are integrating traditional assets—such as gold, forex, indices, and commodities—as derivative products (CFDs or perpetuals) rather than physical assets. Two dominant models have emerged: the MT5/CFD broker-style approach (adopted by Bybit, Bitget, and Gate) and the perpetual contract model (pioneered by Binance), which offers 24/7 trading with USDT settlement. While TradFi provides new growth avenues, hedging tools, and improved capital retention, it faces challenges including regulatory fragmentation, non-trading hour pricing risks, and complex risk management. The future of TradFi lies not just in expanding asset coverage but in building integrated, compliant, and user-friendly systems that enable cross-market strategies, enhance stablecoin utility, and transform exchanges into comprehensive financial supermarkets. Success will depend on delivering predictable, transparent, and trustworthy multi-asset trading experiences.

marsbit02/18 09:19

From Crypto to the Entire Market: Exchanges No Longer Just Sell Coins. Will TradFi Become the Next Growth Curve?