Bitcoin has been oscillating within a defined price band on the chart, largely between $89,000 and $93,000.
On-chain analysis shows this movement is a back-and-forth between investors becoming profitable and others distributing those profits. In between is a subtle sign that Bitcoin is building stronger momentum, but there is more behind the recent trend.
The bears are still in
The growing momentum has appeared somewhat accidental across different segments of Bitcoin [BTC] holders, particularly among US spot ETFs.
Glassnode’s recent research showed that Bitcoin’s gradual push away from its True Market Mean Value of $81,900 led to an increase in investor profitability.
The Market Value–Realized Value (MVRV), which tracks this profitability, slightly increased to 1.67, while trading volume climbed to a $22.6 billion high.
This was met with distribution among ETF investors, who flipped from bullish to bearish as they realized profits. Numbers show this group moved from purchasing $134.2 million worth of Bitcoin to selling $707.3 million.
In the options market, an interesting trend shows investors remain skeptical about the bullish momentum.
Many are hedging by opening short positions. The confirmation came as the 25-delta skew climbed to 12.88 percent, suggesting traders are paying more to protect against downside risk.
Momentum is still building up
Pressure is building across the market in clear ways.
Supply in profit rose in the same period, with Glassnode reporting a modest increase to the 67.3 percent region.
It’s important to note that while rising profitability suggests more capital flowing into the market, it also indicates that sell-offs could occur. Glassnode noted that
“Bitcoin shows early signs of recovery momentum, yet sentiment and positioning remain cautious, highlighting a market still rebuilding confidence after recent volatility.”
MEXC’s Chief Analyst Shawn Young noted that macro factors also influence Bitcoin’s price, especially its ability to trade past the $94,000 region.
“Macro uncertainty is another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s muted movements. Even though traditional stock equities have shown strength recently, Bitcoin has not followed suit.”
Bitcoin STH has a role
Short- and long-term investors both have a part to play. For now, market movement has been driven largely by short-term holders.
The confirmation came from a rise in the STH-SOPR to 18.5%, according to the latest data, with the Hot Capital Share holding at 39.9 percent.
If short-term holders accumulate more while taking minimal profit—and long-term holders do the same—Bitcoin has a faster route to recovery.
Notably, STHs remain at a net loss because Bitcoin is still trading far below their average buy price around the $109,000 region.
With momentum building, more investors may choose to hold Bitcoin longer as they anticipate the price crossing into the $100,000 region and potentially surpassing their cost basis in the short term.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s recent momentum shows early signs of strength, yet the market still carries a cautious tone shaped by ETFs, options hedging, and short-term holder behavior.
- A break above the current range may reveal whether improving profitability and rising momentum can shift sentiment more decisively.
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