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Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over: Realized Price Bands Show Holder Stress Above Key Levels

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this week, dropping below $92,500 amid renewed macro uncertainty and risk-off sentiment triggered by potential EU-U.S. trade tensions. Despite the pullback, analyst MorenoDV argues the market is not entering a cycle end but a phase of “risk redistribution.” Analysis of Realized Price by UTXO age bands shows newer short-term holders (1w–1m and 1m–3m cohorts) remain in profit, providing market stability. However, mid-term holders (3m–6m and 6m–12m cohorts) are underwater, with realized prices above spot, indicating concentrated stress but not yet capitulation. Sustainability hinges on mid-term holders viewing the drawdown as temporary rather than structural to avoid accelerated selling.

bitcoinist01/20 07:02

Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over: Realized Price Bands Show Holder Stress Above Key Levels

bitcoinist01/20 07:02

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies To Watch in 2026

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch in 2026 are Little Pepe (LILPEPE), Ethena (ENA), Pump.fun (PUMP), Aster (ASTER), and Kaspa (KAS). Each offers a unique path to potential market leadership. Little Pepe is evolving from a meme token into a utility-focused project with a planned Layer-2, launchpad, and staking. Ethena provides a synthetic "Internet Bond" dollar, offering yield without traditional banking risk. Pump.fun is a platform that commodifies memecoin creation, generating significant volume through its self-reinforcing ecosystem. Aster aims to be a leading 24/7 derivatives market for crypto and tokenized stocks. Kaspa differentiates itself with its BlockDAG architecture, providing a scalable and secure proof-of-work Layer-1. Together, they represent key vectors for the next bull market: cultural distribution, financial primitives, platform effects, derivatives infrastructure, and base-layer scalability.

TheNewsCrypto01/20 06:53

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies To Watch in 2026

TheNewsCrypto01/20 06:53

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

An experienced macro trader presents a contrarian thesis that 2026 will be the "year of the bond," with long-duration U.S. Treasuries (TLT/TMF) poised to outperform stocks. The core argument is built on several pillars: gold's 200% rally historically signals deflationary risk, not sustained inflation; the U.S. faces a crushing $1.2 trillion annual interest bill, creating a fiscal doom loop; Treasury issuance is dangerously short-term, amplifying refinancing risk; and long bond short interest is at extreme, crowded levels. Additional factors include cooling inflation, weak economic indicators, deflationary trade war risks, and the high probability of Fed intervention (QE/Yield Curve Control) to lower long-term yields if stress emerges. The trade offers asymmetric upside: TLT yields ~4.5% while waiting, and a 200bps drop in yields could trigger a 35-45%+ price surge, accelerated by a short squeeze. The author has allocated 60% of their portfolio to this thesis, betting on a policy and macro regime shift.

marsbit01/20 06:46

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

marsbit01/20 06:46

Avalanche defends KEY support: Why AVAX traders watch $18 next

Avalanche (AVAX) demonstrates strong momentum, driven by real adoption in DeFi, tokenization, and real-world assets, achieving a milestone of 1.7 million daily active addresses. This growth, supported by institutional interest and filings, reflects rising confidence. Market data shows sustained Taker Buy dominance and whale accumulation around the $12 support level, reinforcing bullish sentiment. AVAX price action suggests an ascending triangle pattern, with potential to break resistance at $15.36 and target $18.52 or higher. However, caution is advised as a drop below $11 could lead to a decline toward $8.60. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely.

ambcrypto01/20 06:32

Avalanche defends KEY support: Why AVAX traders watch $18 next

ambcrypto01/20 06:32

Crypto ETPs See $2.2B Weekly Inflows as Bitcoin, Ether Lead

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted $2.2 billion in net inflows, marking the strongest weekly surge since October of last year. Bitcoin-focused funds captured the majority of inflows, while Ether and a few altcoin products also saw fresh capital. Investors are increasingly using these ETPs as a convenient way to gain crypto exposure without direct ownership. The inflows coincided with rising token prices and increased trading activity. Institutional adoption is growing, as brokers and wealth managers integrate crypto ETPs into traditional investment platforms. Demand is broadening beyond Bitcoin, with Ether recording healthy inflows and altcoins attracting some interest.

TheNewsCrypto01/20 06:11

Crypto ETPs See $2.2B Weekly Inflows as Bitcoin, Ether Lead

TheNewsCrypto01/20 06:11

Bitcoin Hashrate Continues To Fall, Now Lowest Since September

Bitcoin's network hashrate, a key indicator of total mining computational power, has continued its recent decline. The 7-day average hashrate has now dropped to 978.8 EH/s, its lowest level since early September. This follows an all-time high set in mid-October, after which miners began to decommission equipment as BTC's price turned bearish. Despite a recent price recovery to around $93,000, miner sentiment remains weak. This sustained drop in hashrate is now directly impacting Bitcoin's mining difficulty. With average block times currently at 10.43 minutes—slower than the target 10 minutes—the network is estimated to see a 4.15% reduction in difficulty in its next automated adjustment. This adjustment, still a few days away, could change if miner activity shifts. The declining hashrate reflects a broader trend of reduced miner optimism and operational scaling back.

bitcoinist01/20 06:05

Bitcoin Hashrate Continues To Fall, Now Lowest Since September

bitcoinist01/20 06:05

Inside the $282mln ZachXBT investigation – How stolen Bitcoin hit Tornado Cash

In a major social engineering attack on January 10th, an attacker stole over $282 million in Bitcoin and Litecoin from a single victim by impersonating Trezor support and tricking them into revealing their seed phrase. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT and security firm PeckShield tracked the stolen funds as the attacker used THORChain—a decentralized, non-KYC protocol—to move approximately $71 million across blockchains. The funds were then obscured using Tornado Cash mixer and swapped into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero. The theft occurred amid broader market declines, highlighting how social manipulation and cross-chain protocols are increasingly exploited for large-scale laundering.

ambcrypto01/20 06:02

Inside the $282mln ZachXBT investigation – How stolen Bitcoin hit Tornado Cash

ambcrypto01/20 06:02

$6 Trillion Deposit Drain Theory Sends Banking Industry into Panic

The article discusses how the U.S. CLARITY Act, which prohibits crypto exchanges from paying yields on payment stablecoins, is part of a broader effort to protect traditional banks' profitable net interest margins. Large banks like JPMorgan benefit from near-zero deposit rates while earning significantly higher returns by investing in assets like Treasury bills. The banking industry warns that stablecoin yield offerings could lead to $6.6 trillion in deposit outflows, harming lending capacity. However, the article argues that these funds often remain within the traditional financial system, as stablecoin reserves are held in cash and short-term Treasuries. The real concern for banks is competition from higher-yielding alternatives like USDC rewards and DeFi protocols, which force them to offer better rates. This situation mirrors historical debate around Regulation Q and the rise of money market funds in the 1970s. The stablecoin market has grown rapidly, reflecting demand for digital dollars that offer both liquidity and yield. The author suggests that, much like money market funds, stablecoin yields represent a technological shift that benefits consumers and will likely be adopted despite resistance from incumbent institutions.

marsbit01/20 05:49

$6 Trillion Deposit Drain Theory Sends Banking Industry into Panic

marsbit01/20 05:49

Funds Are Still in the Market, But Interest in Altcoins Has Faded

The article analyzes the structural shifts in the crypto market in 2025, arguing it was not a typical bull or bear cycle but a period of institutional repositioning. Key themes include: - **Policy and Regulation**: Clearer frameworks emerged (e.g., GENIUS Act, ETF approvals), reducing uncertainty and defining compliance boundaries, but without triggering a broad market boom. - **Capital Flow**: Significant capital entered through low-risk channels like stablecoins (e.g., USDe growth), ETFs (favoring BTC/ETH), RWA (e.g., treasury bonds), and DAT strategies, but this liquidity did not spread to most altcoins. - **Market Stratification**: While Bitcoin and Ethereum saw institutional support, ~85% of new tokens underperformed, with median FDV down over 70%. The market split: institutional capital focused on compliant assets, while speculative activity concentrated in niches. - **Key Sectors**: - *Real-yield assets* (e.g., DeFi protocols with fee mechanisms) gained traction as they offered returns without relying solely on narrative hype. - *AI/Robotics x Crypto* cooled in price but remained relevant long-term for infrastructure potential. - *Prediction markets and Perp DEXs* grew by serving native demand for leverage and event speculation, though they face efficiency challenges. Conclusion: 2025 marked a transition where narrative-driven rallies became shorter and more selective, while institutional capital prioritized assets with clear utility, compliance, and yield. The market is structured for continued divergence between mainstream and altcoins in 2026.

比推01/20 05:41

Funds Are Still in the Market, But Interest in Altcoins Has Faded

比推01/20 05:41

Trump's First Year in Office: Memorable Moments and Controversies

Donald Trump's first year in office (2026) was marked by a controversial foray into cryptocurrency. Shortly before his inauguration, a mysterious wallet purchased a newly created token, $TRUMP, just hours before he publicly announced it. The token's price skyrocketed, allowing early insiders to profit over $100 million, while 810,000 wallets, many belonging to new investors, lost a total of $2 billion. His family then launched "World Liberty Financial," a DeFi platform where they held a 60% stake, generating hundreds of millions from token sales and stablecoin interest. This created a system of "access capitalism," where investments bought proximity to power. Concurrently, Trump's administration dismantled regulatory oversight. The SEC chairman was replaced, numerous crypto lawsuits were dropped, and a key Justice Department crypto enforcement team was dissolved, clearing the path for his ventures. He also issued controversial pardons to convicted crypto figures like Ross Ulbricht (Silk Road) and Changpeng Zhao (Binance), while denying clemency to those who donated to Democrats, creating a clear "price list" for pardons. The article argues this constitutes a legalized, industrialized form of corruption, where rules are designed by the same people who profit from them. The system is not hidden but operates transparently on the blockchain, turning what Trump once called "air" into a multi-billion dollar enterprise, with ordinary investors acting as the fuel.

marsbit01/20 05:35

Trump's First Year in Office: Memorable Moments and Controversies

marsbit01/20 05:35

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