比索失守前夜:阿根廷人用加密货币守护最后的价值

marsbitОпубликовано 2025-10-23Обновлено 2025-10-24

在中期选举临近之际,阿根廷总统哈维尔・米莱收紧外汇管制以支撑比索汇率,而 Ruben López 等阿根廷民众正转向加密货币以保护自身储蓄。

外汇管制

布宜诺斯艾利斯一家加密货币交易所外的比特币标识

一种新策略应运而生:利用与美元 1:1 锚定的稳定币,撬动阿根廷官方汇率与平行市场汇率的差价,目前官方汇率下的比索价值,比平行市场高出约 7%。加密货币经纪商表示,这套交易流程如下:先买入美元,立即兑换为稳定币;再将稳定币兑换为平行市场汇率下更便宜的比索。这种被称为「rulo」的套利操作,每笔交易可快速赚取高达 4% 的利润。

外汇管制

10 月 17 日,米莱在布宜诺斯艾利斯的竞选集会上

「我每天都做这笔交易,」布宜诺斯艾利斯的股票经纪人 López 表示,他借助加密货币抵御通胀。

这种加密货币操作,折射出阿根廷民众应对新一轮经济动荡的方式已发生转变。10 月 26 日选举前,阿根廷正耗尽美元储备以提振比索、防止汇率突破交易区间。即便有美国的大量支持,投资者仍预计选举后比索将进一步贬值。

阿根廷央行近期出台新规,禁止民众在 90 天内转售美元,以遏制快进快出的套利交易,而「rulo」套利模式几乎随即出现。10 月 9 日,交易平台 Ripio 表示,「稳定币兑比索的交易量单周激增 40%」,原因是「用户正利用汇率波动与市场机会获利」。

对部分阿根廷民众而言,这类操作实属必要。毕竟,这个国家在本世纪已三次债务违约。米莱在 2023 年当选时,曾承诺终结这些金融困境。他确实取得了一些成效,例如将年度通胀率从近 300% 降至约 30%;但比索汇率仍大幅贬值,一方面源于米莱上任时推行的本币贬值政策,另一方面则是近期投资者对选举的担忧加剧。

外汇管制

比索汇率逼近交易区间上限


「rulo」套利现象表明,加密货币在阿根廷的角色已发生质变:从曾让包括米莱本人在内的民众好奇尝试的新鲜事物,转变为民众保护储蓄的金融工具。在美国,加密货币常被用作投机工具;但在拉丁美洲,它已成为寻求稳定的选择。在阿根廷、委内瑞拉、玻利维亚等国,加密技术可帮助人们规避「本币波动、高通胀、严格外汇管制」的三重压力。

「我们为用户提供用比索或美元购买加密货币、再出售获利的渠道——这是我们的日常业务,」当地加密货币交易所 Belo 的首席执行官 Manuel Beaudroit 表示,「显然,汇率差能带来可观利润。」他提到,近几周交易者每笔交易可赚 3%-4%,但也提醒「这种收益水平非常罕见」。

玻利维亚拉巴斯一家商店外的加密货币兑换服务

其他交易平台也出现了类似的情况。另一家本土平台 Lemon Cash 表示,10 月 1 日阿根廷央行 90 天禁售美元新规生效当天,其加密货币总交易量(包括买卖、兑换)较平均水平激增 50%。

「稳定币无疑是获取更便宜美元的工具,」另一家交易平台 Bitso 的阿根廷区负责人 Julián Colombo 指出,「加密货币仍处于监管空白期,政府尚未明确如何管控稳定币或限制其流动性,这为『rulo』套利的兴起创造了条件。」

不过,稳定币交易的增长并非仅因套利。随着米莱政府面临关键选举、经济再次承压,许多阿根廷民众也将加密货币用作对冲比索可能进一步贬值的工具。

「通胀与政治不确定性让我们变得更保守,所以我没有任何比索储蓄或投资,只把比索用于日常开支,」阿根廷「加密货币女性联盟」负责人 Nicole Connor 表示,「我的储蓄都放在加密货币和稳定币里,并尝试通过它们获取收益。」


外汇管制

布宜诺斯艾利斯一家商店内的汇率标识


尽管如此,加密货币操作并非毫无风险。在阿根廷,股票市场交易可免税,但加密货币交易利润需缴纳最高 15% 的税费;此外,频繁交易也可能引发银行关注,对于反复进行大额转账的用户,银行常要求提供资金来源证明。

但分析师认为,随着经济困境持续,阿根廷对稳定币的依赖可能会加深;在整个拉丁美洲,越来越多人正通过这类工具保护资产,以抵御财政动荡与选举冲击。

「稳定币会一直存在,」股票经纪人 López 说,「美元在阿根廷社会和日常生活中占据重要地位,因为它是我们规避本币风险的避风港。」

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