Key Takeaways
Origin Protocol’s OGN token registered a 14.4% rally in the past 24 hours, and is up 21.8% in a week. Holders were at severe losses, but there was a chance of recovery as the token climbed back above $0.71.
Origin Protocol [OGN] might be undervalued. AMBCrypto found that at press time, the majority of the token holders were at a severe loss.
The MVRV ratio is the ratio of the market capitalization to the realized capitalization.
Source: Glassnode
At press time, the MVRV was at 0.45. This showed that the token is extremely undervalued and that the average cost basis for holders was much higher than the current price. It indicated capitulation.
In other words, old holders are in pain, but it might be an opportunity for newcomers. AMBCrypto investigated if buyers should be interested in Origin Protocol token.
Clues that OGN’s bottom might be in
The MVRV ratio has been extremely low since May 2022. There were brief rallies which pushed the MVRV higher, the most notable rally being a multi-month one that ended in March 2024.
However, these rallies were not enough to flip the long-term market structure of OGN, which has been bearish since the summer of 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
The exchange reserve has been falling since April. Reduced exchange reserve implied that OGN was being accumulated and sent away from exchanges, likely to cold storage. This was a positive sign for the token holders.
Source: OGN/USDT on TradingView
The rally in 2024 took the OGN price as high as $0.283. The market structure on the weekly chart was strongly bullish.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] retracement from $73.7k to $52.5k over six months saw OGN retrace nearly 65%.
After a brief rally toward the end of 2024, OGN fell below the $0.071 support zone, which had held strong in the second half of 2024.
Even though Bitcoin and many altcoins were racing toward all-time highs, OGN was unable to keep up.
This might be about to change. The RSI on the OGN weekly chart has climbed above neutral 50, signifying a momentum shift.
The CMF was still firmly in favor of the sellers, but it was climbing higher, underlining weakening selling pressure.
Most importantly, the price was above the $0.71 former support, now resistance level. This breakout, if sustained, could initiate the next OGN rally.
