【重磅解读】巨鲸近期低吸收集25000枚BTC,ETH寻求低迷行情里突破

火必研究院Опубликовано 2022-06-09Обновлено 2022-06-11

Введение

BTC波动率下降,短线寻求突破,等待主力给出方向。

1、 BTC回撤到10日均线

BTC短线反弹空间有限,价格维持弱势震荡表现,并且震荡强度不断下降,蓄势待发特征明显。交易量方面,目前整体成交量要高于4月份的水平,表明相对高的换手率情况下,投资者交易维持短线热度高位。同时,整体交易量趋势没有发生重大变化,长期缩量趋势还未出现逆转信号。

支撑方面,斐波那契61.8%对应的28307美元支撑不变,定投低吸策略可以支撑投资者长期交易过程。

2、BTC巨鲸地址数回升

BTC价格短线震荡阶段,巨鲸地址数小幅回升,6月8日1000枚BTC以上的巨鲸地址数达到了2224个,相比5月25日的2199增加了25个。也就是说,有多达25000个BTC集中到主力账户。一般来看,主力持币集中度增加表明行情酝酿反弹,多头吸筹行情有向好的趋势。

3、ETH活跃地址数低迷

ETH的每日新增地址数维持低位运行,并且下降趋势依然相对明确。6月8日的新增地址数为69814,延续了2021年10月28日以来的萎缩趋势。新增地址数下降,意味着ETH价格低迷状态很可能会延续。回顾ETH典型底部持续期间,都为新增地址数大幅增长的阶段。比如2018年12月和2020年3月份,ETH新增地址数维持高位运行,期间ETH价格开始筑底反弹,从120美元的底部区域快速上行。

目前ETH价格虽然低于2000美元,新增地址数高于历史低点50000,可继续等待该指标给出反转信号。

4、ETH价格横盘震荡

ETH价格短线表现非常低迷,价格不仅运行在720日均线对应的以下2131美元以下,同样价格低于斐波那契61.8%对应的1910美元压力位。因此,行情表现上向下机会依然较多。尽管如此,ETH价格却没有出现进一步下跌的情况。接下来短线反弹空间依然蜂巢关键,只有确认短期强势,并且拉升到2000美元以上,才可能出现区间反弹达到2500美元以上的涨幅表现。

5、SOL达近期低位

随着SOL在近期低价区不断横盘整理,同期交易量维持等量线附近运行,意味着交易稳定的情况下,SOL已经具备变盘基础。行情方面,可关注价格对10日均线的突破效果。因为波动率已经下降到了6%,相应的价格波动机会也将扩大。

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