Bitcoin [BTC] faced sustained bearish pressure, with the downtrend holding since its October 2025 peaks. Amid this prolonged downtrend, Bitcoin long-term holders saw their positions go from extreme profitability to deep losses.
As a result, some long-term holders capitulated and closed their positions at a loss. However, with prolonged loss-selling, it seems long-term holders are exhausted.
Bitcoin LTH activity hit bear market levels
Despite continued market weakness, Bitcoin long-term holders have significantly reduced spending.
According to Darkfost, LTH activity has decreased, returning to levels typically seen during bear markets. Such a drop, given the prevailing market conditions, suggests reduced selling activity from the cohort.
In fact, the group has reduced profit or loss realization in equal measures. According to Checkonchain data, LTH Sell Side Risk Ratio dropped to 0.000395, at press time, having touched October 2025 lows, suggesting exhausted selling pressure.
As a result, long-term holders’ realized profit fell to 1.1k BTC, the lowest since September 2022. At the same time, their realized loss declined to 2.7k BTC, underscoring reduced loss-making activity within the cohort.
Such market conditions suggest that fewer holders are exiting the market regardless of their current positions; instead, they have turned to holding. Thus, most holders have shown market indifference and are currently waiting for the next market move.
Historically, these market conditions have coincided with cycle bottoms, when sellers lose incentive to sell, and weaker hands exit the market.
This creates room for accumulation and sets the stage for a new price move. Darkfost’s analysis noted that reduced activity from long-term holders (LTHs) could keep BTC in a consolidation phase.
What about BTC?
Although long-term holders have sharply reduced spending, the shift has yet to lift Bitcoin’s price. BTC remains structurally weak, with downside momentum still dominating.
In fact, as of writing, Bitcoin [BTC] traded at $69,800 after falling 0.32% on the daily charts, indicating prevailing downside volatility.
Additionally, Bitcoin momentum and directional indicators have further shown this structural weakness. Looking at the Directional Movement Index, its positive index is barely holding above its negative index, which was at 22.
At the same time, ADXR remained above ADX, suggesting the trend is weaker than the recent average and is continually losing momentum. Taken together, these indicators suggest strong downside risk, and the current situation is likely to persist.
The Future Grand Trend (FGT) indicator clearly indicates the likelihood of this trend’s continuation. Based on FGT, BTC still has more room to fall, with $63k serving as critical support.
However, with LTHs reducing selling pressure, it provides short-term relief, and sustained such behavior could see BTC hold between $65k and $74k.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s long-term holders’ activity plummeted to bear-market levels, signaling reduced selling pressure.
- BTC remains structurally weak, suggesting continued bearish dominance.
