Disrupting the Billion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Prediction Markets Face Crackdown from the Established Order
Pioneering prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com’s Truth Predict are facing regulatory pushback in the U.S., particularly from state authorities overseeing sports betting. On January 9, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued cease-and-desist orders to these platforms, accusing them of offering illegal sports gambling products without state licensing, despite being registered with the CFTC as designated contract markets.
The conflict stems from the rapid growth of both sectors. Since the federal ban on sports betting was overturned in 2018, 30 states—including Tennessee—have legalized online sports betting, generating billions in wagers and significant tax revenue. In 2024 alone, U.S. sports betting handle reached $148.74 billion, with taxes contributing $2.82 billion. Tennessee collected $97.16 million in taxes from sports betting in 2024.
Prediction markets, which trade “event contracts” classified as financial derivatives under CFTC jurisdiction, have surged in popularity. Their 2025 trading volume hit $40 billion, a 400% increase from 2023, with sports-related contracts being the largest category. This growth threatens traditional sportsbooks, whose stocks have underperformed the market.
Multiple states—including Maryland, Ohio, and Nevada—have taken action against prediction markets. Kalshi has challenged these actions in court, arguing federal compliance should preempt state regulations, but court rulings have been mixed. The legal battles are expected to escalate, potentially reaching the Supreme Court, as states defend their regulatory authority and tax base against what they perceive as unlicensed gambling operations.
marsbit01/12 02:55
