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"Marking the Boat to Find the Sword"-Style Price Predictions Go Viral: The Practical Logic and Flaws of Mystical Prophecies

"Carving the Boat to Find the Sword"-style cryptocurrency price predictions, which rely on historical pattern analogies, have gained popularity during uncertain market phases. Analysts like CryptoBullet and KillaXBT use methods such as "tick-tock fractals" and historical rhythm analysis to predict market tops, bottoms, and trends, often claiming accuracy rates of 75–80%. While these predictions sometimes align with actual movements—such as correctly identifying a downturn in January 2026—they often miss precise price levels or timing. The appeal lies in three factors: market cycles often rhyme due to recurring liquidity and sentiment patterns; common technical indicators show similar predictive power but lack visual simplicity; and survivorship bias amplifies the perception of accuracy, as failed predictions are often ignored or deleted. However, these methods are flawed in practice. They offer directional guidance rather than executable trading strategies, lacking precise entry/exit points, stop-loss levels, or clear failure conditions. For instance, predicting a October 2025 top without specific price targets or risk management rules provides little actionable insight. Ultimately, while historical analogies can help identify market phases, they should not be mistaken for reliable trading signals. History rhymes—but never repeats exactly.

marsbit03/13 07:36

Multicoin Co-founder: PropAMM is Changing the Perception That 'Decentralization is Slower'

Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani argues that PropAMM (Proactive Automated Market Maker) is one of the most significant innovations in market microstructure in decades, challenging the long-held belief that decentralized systems are inherently slower than centralized ones. In traditional centralized exchanges (CEXs), market makers co-locate servers and engage in constant bidirectional communication with the exchange, leading to latency due to data transmission delays. In contrast, PropAMM on Solana runs market-making algorithms directly on the blockchain, eliminating the need for inter-server communication. Price updates occur within the same physical silicon, drastically reducing latency. PropAMM already offers narrower spreads for SOL-USDC spot trading on Solana than major CEXs. Samani predicts it will dominate on-chain trading for spots, perpetuals, and prediction markets this year. Current challenges include ensuring best execution for takers due to private algorithms and non-deterministic routing across multiple PropAMMs, but solutions from aggregators like Jupiter, dFlow, and Phoenix are expected. Upcoming Solana upgrades—such as higher compute limits, reduced slot times, and improved network latency—will further enhance PropAMM performance, solidifying its advantage over traditional systems.

比推03/13 07:27

U.S. Treasury Sanctions Network Linked to North Korean Crypto Fraud

The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned a network tied to North Korean IT workers involved in global cryptocurrency fraud schemes. These operatives used stolen identities and fake documents to secure remote IT jobs, then funneled their earnings to the North Korean government to fund weapons and ballistic missile programs. Many operated from countries like China and Russia while posing as legitimate employees, with companies unknowingly hiring them for software and crypto-related projects. Authorities linked the network to other cybercrimes, including hacking and identity fraud, which have generated billions in stolen crypto assets. Organizations are urged to strengthen identity checks to avoid inadvertently supporting sanctioned entities.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 07:18

Free Mirror or Land Grab? OpenClaw Founder Blasts Tencent for Copying

OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger publicly criticized Tencent for creating SkillHub, a localized platform mirroring OpenClaw, accusing the tech giant of copying without supporting the project. Tencent responded by clarifying that SkillHub acts as a local mirror site, properly attributing OpenClaw as the data source and reducing bandwidth strain on the origin server by processing significant traffic locally. It also expressed willingness to become a sponsor. However, Steinberger remained unsatisfied, emphasizing that the core issue was not technical but ethical—Tencent failed to communicate beforehand. The dispute highlights deeper concerns about big tech’s approach to open-source ecosystems: while mirroring is common and often legal under open-source licenses, Tencent’s move is seen as an attempt to control user access, distribution channels, and future commercial influence within the AI agent ecosystem. The incident reflects a broader pattern in China’s internet industry, where major companies rapidly embrace emerging technologies like OpenClaw not purely for innovation, but to capture entry points, traffic, and platform dominance. By offering localized, convenient services, they risk enclosing open ecosystems within their own walled gardens—ultimately dictating which tools get visibility, monetization, and user adoption. As OpenClaw gains explosive popularity in China, the episode underscores a tension between open-source ideals and commercial strategies, where convenience may come at the cost of community autonomy and long-term openness.

Odaily星球日报03/13 07:13

AI Agents Are Starting to Register Email Accounts Themselves: This YC-Backed Company Raised $6 Million to Do Just One Thing

AI agents are now autonomously registering email accounts through AgentMail, a San Francisco-based startup that recently secured $6 million in seed funding. The company, backed by General Catalyst, Y Combinator, and prominent angels, is building email infrastructure specifically designed for AI agents—not humans. Unlike traditional email services, AgentMail provides API-first access, allowing AI agents to programmatically create accounts, send/receive emails, manage threads, and handle authentication without human intervention. This addresses a critical gap: while AI agents can perform complex tasks, they lack the identity layer (email) required to interact with most internet services. Key capabilities enabled by AgentMail include third-party authentication, bidirectional communication, automated audit trails, and multi-threaded conversations. The platform already serves thousands of human users and hundreds of thousands of AI agents, with use cases spanning supply chain coordination, customer support, loan collection, and procurement negotiations. Notably, AI agents are proactively seeking out and registering for AgentMail themselves—a sign of growing autonomy. This shift underscores a broader trend: AI agents are evolving from tools into active internet participants, necessitating new infrastructure tailored to their needs. As Box CEO Aaron Levie predicts, AI agents will soon become the primary users of software, vastly outnumbering human users in enterprises. AgentMail’s vision positions email as the foundational identity layer for this agent-centric future.

marsbit03/13 07:06

Hoskinson Says Cardano Just Cleared A Major Binance Hurdle

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, announced a major milestone for the ecosystem: the upcoming Binance spot listing of NIGHT, the native token of the privacy-focused sidechain Midnight. Hoskinson emphasized that this is the first Cardano-native asset to be listed on Binance, which he described as the world's largest altcoin exchange and the center of gravity for liquidity. He framed this development as a breakthrough that removes a significant structural barrier, opening the door for other Cardano assets to access top-tier global liquidity. Beyond market access, Hoskinson connected the listing to broader trends of chain abstraction and compliance, suggesting Midnight's technology could enable privacy-preserving tools essential for scaling tokenized real-world assets. He also presented this achievement as a direct rebuttal to critics who have questioned Cardano's ability to launch large-scale projects and remain relevant in the DeFi space.

bitcoinist03/13 07:02

From Trading to Payment: Circle and Mastercard's Stablecoin Strategy

Summarized from an interview with Circle's Chief Commercial Officer Kash Razzaghi, this article discusses Circle’s strategic partnership with Mastercard to advance the adoption of stablecoins and blockchain-based payments. While best known for its USDC stablecoin, which has a market cap exceeding $77 billion, Circle aims to build broader financial infrastructure that enables faster, cheaper, and more transparent value transfer using blockchain technology. Razzaghi highlights that the current crypto market remains speculative but emphasizes a shift toward real-world utility, particularly in payments, remittances, and as a store of value in inflation-hit economies. He identifies three major use cases for stablecoins: trading and investing, cross-border payments, and dollar-based savings in unstable monetary environments. The collaboration with Mastercard is framed as essential for scaling trust, reducing friction, and accelerating mainstream adoption. Razzaghi believes that true adoption will occur when users transact in stablecoins without even realizing the underlying technology—similar to how people use the internet without understanding HTTP. The interview also touches on regulatory progress and growing institutional interest, signaling that blockchain infrastructure is increasingly seen as a tool to upgrade traditional financial systems rather than replace them.

比推03/13 06:42

TURBO Rockets 27%: Will the Rally Accelerate or Face a Pullback Soon?

TheNewsCrypto03/13 06:26

Vitalik Wrote a Proposal Teaching You How to Stealthily Use AI Large Models

Vitalik Buterin and Ethereum Foundation's AI lead Davide Crapis proposed a system called "ZK API Usage Credits" that enables anonymous access to AI models like ChatGPT using zero-knowledge proofs. Instead of registering with personal details, users deposit funds (e.g., 100 USDC) into a smart contract. Each API request is accompanied by a ZK proof verifying the user is on the approved list and has sufficient balance—without revealing their identity. This approach prioritizes privacy in an AI-dominated era where user interactions are increasingly personal. Vitalik has been actively discussing AI, emphasizing Ethereum’s role as an immutable, censorship-resistant data layer in a world flooded with AI-generated content. He argues that as AI makes fabrication easier, trusted public ledges become essential. The Ethereum Foundation has expanded its privacy research team and integrated AI and privacy into its roadmap, signaling a strategic alignment with future demands for verifiable and private digital infrastructure. Although the proposal is still theoretical and faces skepticism, it highlights a growing need for privacy-preserving technologies as AI usage escalates.

marsbit03/13 06:25

Multicoin Co-founder: Is Decentralization Always Slower Than Centralization? PropAMM Is Breaking This Bias

In a recent article, Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani argues that PropAMM (Proactive Automated Market Maker) on Solana represents one of the most significant innovations in market microstructure in decades. It challenges the long-held belief that decentralized systems are inherently slower than centralized ones due to global node communication. In traditional centralized exchanges (CEXs), market makers co-locate servers and engage in constant bidirectional communication with the exchange to update orders, resulting in latency. In contrast, PropAMM runs market-making algorithms directly on the Solana blockchain, eliminating the need for inter-server messaging. Price updates occur within the same physical silicon, drastically reducing latency. PropAMM already offers narrower spreads for SOL-USDC spot trading than major CEXs. Samani predicts it will dominate on-chain trading across spots, perpetuals, and prediction markets in 2024. Current challenges include non-deterministic routing and lack of guaranteed best execution for takers, but solutions from aggregators like Jupiter and dFlow are expected. Upcoming Solana upgrades—such as higher compute limits, reduced slot times, and lower network latency—will further enhance PropAMM performance, solidifying its advantage over traditional systems.

marsbit03/13 06:22