2026-04-20 Segunda

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Mapping Volatility Through Time: Implied Volatility Heatmaps

Glassnode introduces two new implied volatility (IV) heatmap metrics—IV Moneyness Heatmap and IV Delta Heatmap—that visualize how options markets price risk across strikes and maturities over time, rather than at a single point. These tools help identify volatility regimes, such as periods of calm, stress, and transitions between them. The heatmaps display IV using color gradients, with red indicating high volatility and blue indicating low volatility. Key patterns include elevated put-side IV during drawdowns (signaling hedging demand), tail-risk repricing in deep out-of-the-money options, and regime shifts that inform trading strategies like hedging in low-vol environments or selling premium in high-vol periods. Available in Glassnode Studio, these metrics provide a dynamic view of market expectations and risk sentiment.

insights.glassnode03/23 08:38

Mapping Volatility Through Time: Implied Volatility Heatmaps

insights.glassnode03/23 08:38

TGE in a Bear Market: Is Backpack the Starting Point or the End?

Backpack, a prominent Solana ecosystem wallet and centralized exchange, conducted its TGE (Token Generation Event) for the BP token on March 23. The total supply is set at 1 billion tokens, with 25% (250 million) unlocked at TGE—24% for points holders and 1% for Mad Lads NFT holders. No team or investor tokens are in the initial circulation. The tokenomics are designed to prevent insider dumping: founders, employees, and investors receive no direct token allocation. Instead, the team’s share is held in a company treasury, locked until at least one year after a future IPO. Tokens are released based on key milestones like regulatory progress and product expansion. Users could claim tokens by completing TGE verification on Backpack platform. The project implemented strict anti-Sybil measures, including KYC and manual confirmation requirements, reclaiming over 50 million "fake points." Backpack introduced a staking-to-equity mechanism: users staking BP for at least one year can convert tokens into company shares, with 20% of equity allocated to stakers. Market predictions from Polymarket suggest an FDV between $100-200 million at launch, aligning with Backpack’s previous $120 million valuation. The project has raised $17 million in Series A funding and is reportedly negotiating a new round at a $1 billion pre-money valuation. Amid a bear market, Backpack’s TGE is a significant test of market confidence and project sustainability.

比推03/23 08:33

TGE in a Bear Market: Is Backpack the Starting Point or the End?

比推03/23 08:33

Bitcoin Bull Trap Early Warning, Bearish Logic Continues to Deliver Profits | Invited Analysis

Bitcoin Bull Trap Warning and Short Strategy Validation | Weekly Analysis Last week's market analysis accurately warned of a bull trap, advising against buying into rallies and maintaining a bearish outlook. This prediction was validated as Bitcoin failed to break key resistance and subsequently declined. **Performance Summary:** - A short HYPE trade (1x leverage) yielded ~4.41% profit. - A short BTC trade (1x leverage) yielded ~5.37% profit. - The medium-term short position on BTC (entered at ~$89,000) remains open with ~23.75% unrealized profit. **HYPE Analysis:** The hourly chart suggests the downward correction from the March 19 high may be nearing its end. A key signal for a trend reversal will be a decisive break above the current consolidation range (Central C). While HYPE shows independent momentum, its trajectory remains tied to Bitcoin's overall market conditions. This week's strategy involves using 30% of capital for short-term "spread" trades within a defined range, adhering to strict stop-loss discipline. **BTC Analysis:** The broader market structure remains bearish. The rally from the February 6 low is interpreted as a C-2 wave rebound within a larger corrective pattern. A break below the ~$60,000 support would confirm the start of a C-3 downward wave, with targets extending lower. Key resistance levels are $69.5K-$71.5K and $74.5K-$76K. Key support levels are $65K-$66K, $60K-$62.5K, and ~$57.4K. **Trading Strategy:** - **Medium-term:** Hold the 60% short position from $89,000. Reduce or close the position only if BTC breaks and holds above $74,500. - **Short-term:** Two scenarios are outlined: 1. **Sell into strength:** Short with 15% capital at the $69.5K-$71.5K resistance zone and another 15% at $74.5K-$76K if the price rallies. 2. **Breakout short:** Enter a 30% short position if the price breaks below the ascending channel support and fails to reclaim it. **Risk Management:** A strict trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set an initial stop-loss upon entry, move it to breakeven at +1% profit, and then trail it upwards by 1% for every additional 1% gain to lock in profits and protect capital. *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions are dynamic and carry inherent risks.*

Odaily星球日报03/23 08:26

Bitcoin Bull Trap Early Warning, Bearish Logic Continues to Deliver Profits | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报03/23 08:26

Bitcoin Bull Trap Early Warning, Bearish Logic Continues to Deliver Profits | Invited Analysis

Bitcoin Bull Trap Warning and Short Strategy Validation | Weekly Analysis Last week's market analysis accurately warned of a bull trap, advising against buying into rallies and maintaining a bearish outlook. Bitcoin failed to break key resistance and subsequently declined, confirming the continued validity of the short-term bearish thesis. **Key Performance:** - **HYPE Short-Term Trade:** One long position (1x leverage) was executed, yielding a **4.41%** profit. - **BTC Short-Term Trade:** One short position (1x leverage) was executed, yielding a **5.37%** profit. - **BTC Mid-Term Trade:** A 60% short position from January 28th (entry ~$89,000) remains open, currently showing an unrealized profit of ~23.75%. **BTC Outlook & Strategy:** The analysis maintains that the rally from the February 6th low (~$60,000) is a C-2 wave counter-trend bounce within a larger corrective structure. A subsequent C-3 decline is anticipated, with a key trigger being a break below the $60,000 support. The market is expected to remain in a震荡调整 (volatile adjustment)格局. - *Key Resistance:* $69,500-$71,500; $74,500-$76,000. - *Key Support:* $65,000-$66,000; $60,000-$62,500; ~$57,400. - *Strategy:* Mid-term short held. Short-term tactics focus on selling into resistance (Plan A) or selling breakouts below key support (Plan B), using 30% of equity with strict stop-loss rules. **HYPE Outlook & Strategy:** The hour-chart downtrend from the March 19th high is likely nearing its end. The key signal for a trend resumption will be a decisive break above the current consolidation range (Central C). This week is expected to see wide-range fluctuations. - *Strategy:* Use 30% capital for short-term "spread" opportunities based on support/resistance levels, remaining agile and disciplined with stops. **Risk Management Reminder:** The article concludes with a critical reminder of core execution discipline: always set an initial stop-loss immediately upon entry, then trail the stop to breakeven at +1% profit, and subsequently lock in profits by moving the stop-loss up for every additional 1% gain. *Disclaimer: All views and strategies are for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Market risk exists; invest cautiously.*

marsbit03/23 08:24

Bitcoin Bull Trap Early Warning, Bearish Logic Continues to Deliver Profits | Invited Analysis

marsbit03/23 08:24

The Investment Circle's Shared Answer: Unitree

English Summary: "Unitree, a leading Chinese humanoid robotics company, has officially filed for a科创板 (STAR Board) IPO, marking a potential 'A-share humanoid robotics first stock.' The company, founded by Wang Xingxing, has demonstrated remarkable commercial success, reporting 2025 revenue of approximately RMB 1.708 billion (a 335% year-on-year increase) and a net profit exceeding RMB 600 million, with gross margins nearing 60%. A key to its growth has been the strategic shift from quadruped robots to humanoids. Its humanoid robot sales surged from just 5 units in 2023 to 5,500 in 2025, with the average selling price dropping significantly to RMB 167,600 while maintaining high profitability. The company boasts a star-studded investor lineup, including Meituan, Sequoia China, Matrix Partners, Tencent, Alibaba, BYD, and Geely, reflecting strong industry and capital consensus on the robotics sector. Its IPO is seen as a major milestone, setting a valuation benchmark for the entire industry and opening a crucial exit channel for investors. The broader humanoid robotics market in China is experiencing a financing boom, with over 133 funding rounds in 2026 alone for 115 companies. However, Unitree acknowledges that a key technological challenge remains: the development of a mature 'brain' (embodied AI) for true autonomous decision-making, not just advanced 'cerebellum' movement control. Despite this, its successful commercialization and path to IPO have made it a standout, with early backers like Lei Jun's Shunwei Capital poised for significant returns."

比推03/23 08:19

The Investment Circle's Shared Answer: Unitree

比推03/23 08:19

SIREN’s 75% pump looks strong – But profit-taking may have already started

Recently launched memecoin SIREN surged 75.30% in 24 hours, significantly outperforming the broader crypto market which declined 2%. Trading volume skyrocketed over 720% to $63.51 million, indicating strong interest. Despite this bullish momentum and a major listing of its perpetual futures on Bybit, on-chain data reveals potential profit-taking. The top 100 holders reduced their positions by 1.28%, and exchange reserves increased by 3.46%, suggesting selling from both large and retail investors. Derivatives data shows bulls are currently dominant with significant long positions. However, the RSI of 92 signals the asset is heavily overbought, indicating a high chance of a near-term price correction or pullback. Key resistance and support levels are identified at $1.8702 and $0.9952, respectively.

ambcrypto03/23 08:14

SIREN’s 75% pump looks strong – But profit-taking may have already started

ambcrypto03/23 08:14

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

The article "The Self-Defeating Nature of Startup Dogma: The More You Know, The Sooner You Fail" argues that popular startup methodologies—such as Lean Startup, Customer Development, and the Business Model Canvas—have not improved startup survival rates over the past 30 years, based on U.S. government data. The core paradox is that once a methodology becomes widely adopted, it loses its competitive advantage as all founders converge on the same strategies, leading to homogeneity and increased failure rates in competitive markets. The author compares this to the Red Queen effect in evolutionary biology, where continuous adaptation is necessary just to maintain position. Despite the intuitive appeal and scientific claims of these frameworks, empirical data shows no improvement in the survival rates of either general U.S. businesses or venture-backed startups. In fact, the success rate for seed-funded startups securing subsequent funding has declined. The article explores three possible explanations: the theories might be fundamentally flawed; they might be too obvious to require formalization; or they might be self-defeating when universally applied. The author calls for a truly scientific approach to entrepreneurship, one that embraces experimentation, paradigm development, and differentiation rather than dogma. The conclusion is that to succeed, founders must often do the opposite of what popular playbooks advise.

marsbit03/23 08:13

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

marsbit03/23 08:13

Gate Releases Latest Reserve Report: Covers Nearly 500 User Assets, BTC Reserve Ratio Reaches 147%

Gate has released its latest Proof of Reserves (PoR) report, demonstrating strong financial health. As of March 16, 2026, the platform's overall reserve ratio stands at 122%, significantly exceeding the 100% industry safety benchmark. The reserves cover nearly 500 different types of user assets, highlighting robust risk management capabilities. Key assets show substantial over-collateralization: BTC reserves are at 147% (25,404 BTC held for 17,216 user BTC), ETH at 122.75%, and stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and GUSD also maintain reserves well above 100%. GT and XRP reserves are reported at 136.84% and 116.54%, respectively. As a global leader founded in 2013, Gate emphasizes security and transparency through measures like 100% reserve commitment, zero-knowledge proofs, and a verifiable reserve mechanism. Serving over 50 million users, the platform continues to expand its product offerings, including TradFi integration and Intelligent Web3 initiatives, aiming to foster a secure and evolving digital asset ecosystem.

marsbit03/23 07:52

Gate Releases Latest Reserve Report: Covers Nearly 500 User Assets, BTC Reserve Ratio Reaches 147%

marsbit03/23 07:52

XRP Builds Case For $22 With Major Chart Shift – But Only If This Breakout Retest Holds

XRP is forming a large-scale 'W' pattern on its monthly chart, according to analyst Egrag Crypto. This technical structure suggests a potential long-term price target of $22, though the probability of a full move to that level is estimated at only 25-35%. The pattern is currently in a critical phase, testing the $1.60-$1.80 support zone after a breakout. Holding this area is crucial for the bullish outlook. A breakdown below $1.20 would invalidate the pattern. The immediate focus is on reclaiming $2.00 to confirm upward momentum, with intermediate targets at $3.30 and then $3-$8. XRP is trading at $1.40 at the time of writing.

bitcoinist03/23 07:32

XRP Builds Case For $22 With Major Chart Shift – But Only If This Breakout Retest Holds

bitcoinist03/23 07:32

Saylor Signals New Bitcoin Buy as Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Fall Around 10%

Michael Saylor has indicated that his company, MicroStrategy, is planning another Bitcoin purchase, continuing its aggressive accumulation strategy despite recent market downturns. The company, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has significantly accelerated its buying, acquiring over 43,000 BTC in March alone for a total of $3.04 billion. This buying occurs as Bitcoin faces pressure from geopolitical tensions, causing its price to drop to around $67,725. Consequently, MicroStrategy's holdings are currently at an unrealized loss of approximately 10%, with an average acquisition cost of $75,696 per Bitcoin. Despite these paper losses, the company reaffirms its long-term belief in the cryptocurrency.

TheNewsCrypto03/23 07:24

Saylor Signals New Bitcoin Buy as Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Fall Around 10%

TheNewsCrypto03/23 07:24

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