The Altcoin Vector #38

insights.glassnodePublished on 2026-01-21Last updated on 2026-01-21

Abstract

This report, The Altcoin Vector #38, is a premium publication. Access to the full executive summary and content requires a paid subscription starting at $425 per month. The brief preview indicates it is a market analysis report focused on altcoins, but the detailed insights, data, and conclusions are behind a paywall. Existing subscribers can log in to unlock the full report.

Executive Summary

Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" Volume King Is... LeBron James???

An article from Odaily Planet Daily, authored by Azuma, discusses a peculiar phenomenon observed on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the "2028 US Presidential Election" event. Despite having a real-time probability of less than 1%, unlikely candidates such as NBA star LeBron James (with $48.41 million in trading volume), celebrity Kim Kardashian ($33.84 million), and even ineligible figures like Elon Musk ($23.14 million) and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ($18.39 million) account for approximately 70% of the total trading volume. In contrast, high-probability candidates like Vice President JD Vance ($10.58 million), California Governor Gavin Newsom ($15.71 million), and Secretary of State Marco Rubio ($9.32 million) have significantly lower trading activity. The article explains that this counterintuitive trend is not driven by irrational speculation but by rational strategies. Polymarket offers a 4% annualized holding reward for certain markets, including the 2028 election, to maintain long-term pricing accuracy. This yield exceeds the current 5-year US Treasury rate (3.98%), attracting large investors ("whales") to hold "NO" shares on low-probability candidates for risk-free returns. Additionally, some users utilize a platform feature that allows converting a set of "NO" shares into corresponding "YES" shares for better liquidity or pricing efficiency, rather than directly buying "YES" shares for their preferred candidates. Thus, the seemingly absurd trading activity is strategically motivated.

marsbit24m ago

Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" Volume King Is... LeBron James???

marsbit24m ago

Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" Traffic King Is... LeBron James???

An article titled "Polymarket's '2028 Presidential Election' Volume Leader is... LeBron James???" discusses a peculiar trend on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Despite having less than a 1% real-time probability of winning, celebrities like NBA star LeBron James (with $48.41 million in trading volume), Kim Kardashian ($33.84 million), and even ineligible candidates such as Elon Musk ($23.14 million) dominate trading activity for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. In contrast, high-probability candidates like Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom have significantly lower volumes. The high volumes for unlikely candidates are not driven by irrational betting. Instead, they are largely attributed to users seeking risk-free returns from Polymarket’s 4% annualized holding rewards for certain markets, which exceeds the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries. Large holders often simultaneously buy both "YES" and "NO" shares on these candidates to capitalize on this incentive. Additionally, some users purchase "NO" shares for liquidity or pricing advantages and later convert them into "YES" shares for their preferred candidates. Thus, the seemingly absurd trading behavior is rational and strategically motivated.

Odaily星球日报30m ago

Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" Traffic King Is... LeBron James???

Odaily星球日报30m ago

Dialogue with ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Is the Essence of Blockchain a Libertarian Experiment?

"ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Blockchain as a Hardcore Libertarian Experiment" In a deep-dive interview, ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo reframes the essence of blockchain, arguing it is not merely a new technology or infrastructure but a hardcore libertarian experiment. This experiment, born from the 2008 financial crisis and decades of cypherpunk ideology, tests a fundamental question: to what extent can freedom and self-organization exist without centralized trust? The discussion highlights the experiment's verified outcomes. On one hand, it has proven its core value of censorship resistance, providing critical financial lifelines for entities like WikiLeaks and individuals in hyperinflationary or sanctioned countries via tools like stablecoins. However, Yang points out a key paradox: the most successful product, USDT, is itself a centralized compromise, showing users prioritize a less-controlled pipeline over pure decentralization. On the other hand, the experiment has exposed the severe costs of this freedom—a "dark forest" without safeguards. Events like the collapses of LUNA, Celsius, and FTX, resulting in massive wealth destruction and prison sentences for founders, underscore the system's fragility and the inherent risks of an unregulated environment. Yang observes that despite decentralized protocols, human nature inevitably recreates centralized power structures, speculative frenzies, and narrative-driven cycles (from ICOs to Meme coins), where emotion and belonging often trump technological substance. Looking forward, he believes blockchain's future is significant but niche. Its real value lies in serving specific, real-world needs for financial sovereignty and bypassing traditional controls, not as a universal infrastructure replacing all centralized systems. For the average participant, Yang's crucial advice is to cultivate independent judgment. True freedom is not holding a crypto wallet, but possessing a mind resilient to groupthink and narrative hype in a high-risk, often irrational market.

marsbit39m ago

Dialogue with ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Is the Essence of Blockchain a Libertarian Experiment?

marsbit39m ago

OSL Group Partners with Circle to Expand Global Market Access Channels for USDC

OSL Group (863.HK) has partnered with Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) to expand the use of USDC on its trading and payment platform. Through OSL Global, users can now exchange USDC for USD at a 1:1 ratio and trade USDC against BTC, ETH, SOL, USDT, and USD. USDC has also been integrated as a unified margin currency for contracts to improve capital efficiency for both retail and institutional clients. Additionally, OSL’s payment services now support USDC for digital dollar settlements. Subject to regulatory approvals, OSL may also integrate Circle’s USYC, a leading tokenized money market fund. The collaboration aims to enhance stablecoin liquidity, support seamless value exchange, and strengthen digital asset infrastructure in Hong Kong and global markets.

marsbit48m ago

OSL Group Partners with Circle to Expand Global Market Access Channels for USDC

marsbit48m ago

Lattice Capital Founder: Crypto VC, Believing is Seeing

In the face of a significant contraction in crypto VC funding, industry observers debate whether this signals a decline in crypto's appeal or a sign of market maturation. While some investors are leaving crypto entirely or diversifying into other high-growth sectors like AI, Lattice Capital co-founder Regan Bozman argues for staying the course. He expresses skepticism about crypto funds successfully pivoting to AI or deep tech, citing intense competition and lack of inherent advantage. Bozman believes the current crypto downturn, with fewer founders and less capital, actually presents a prime investment opportunity for those who are truly committed. He contends that the crypto financial infrastructure is only 5% built, with massive growth potential remaining in areas like non-USD stablecoins and crypto-based financial applications in global markets. The key is to focus on early-stage, specialized opportunities that larger funds may overlook.

marsbit54m ago

Lattice Capital Founder: Crypto VC, Believing is Seeing

marsbit54m ago

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How to Buy AL

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7.5k Total ViewsPublished 2024.05.06Updated 2025.03.21

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