# Polymarket Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Polymarket", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY Act could pass by April as Polymarket odds hit 85%

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has stated that the US CLARITY Act could pass as early as April, signaling potential regulatory clarity for digital assets. This optimism is reflected in prediction markets, with Polymarket traders assigning an 85% probability of the bill becoming law by 2026, a significant increase from 60% earlier this year. Garlinghouse and other industry leaders view the legislation as a crucial step toward resolving long-standing regulatory uncertainty, which they argue has disadvantaged US crypto firms. While some industry reservations remain about specific provisions, the rising market confidence suggests passage is increasingly seen as the base case. The act is viewed as a medium-term structural shift rather than an immediate market catalyst.

ambcrypto21h ago

Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY Act could pass by April as Polymarket odds hit 85%

ambcrypto21h ago

Bitwise files for prediction market ETF: Election bets to go mainstream?

Bitwise has filed for a prediction market ETF called "PredictionShares," focusing on event contracts tied to U.S. election outcomes in 2026 and 2028. This move follows a similar filing by Roundhill Investments, signaling growing interest from TradFi in crypto-based prediction markets. Analysts expect more players to enter the space, citing the "ETF-ization of everything." The segment saw record growth, reaching $12.4 billion in monthly volume in January. However, regulatory uncertainty persists: the CFTC supports these markets as hedging tools, while many states view them as gambling and seek stricter oversight.

ambcrypto2 days ago 17:02

Bitwise files for prediction market ETF: Election bets to go mainstream?

ambcrypto2 days ago 17:02

Polymarket Rushes to Launch Token with Revenue Data? Sports Market Opens for Fees, Aiming to Become Web3's New "Money Printing Machine"

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, has begun charging taker fees on sports markets starting February 18, 2026, beginning with NCAA basketball and Serie A. This follows its recent introduction of fees on its 15-minute crypto markets, which already generate over $1.08 million in weekly revenue. With sports accounting for 39% of platform activity and having significantly larger average trade sizes than crypto markets, this move is expected to substantially boost revenue. Conservative estimates project annualized revenue could exceed $200 million after full rollout. The fee model is dynamically designed, charging up to 0.44% for market orders (takers) when event outcomes are most uncertain (50% probability), while limit order makers receive a 25% rebate. This strategy aims to maintain liquidity and competitive low costs compared to traditional sportsbooks. The platform, valued at up to $116 billion in secondary markets, is also preparing for a potential mid-2026 token launch ($POLY trademark filed), with a highly anticipated airdrop. While it faces competition and regulatory scrutiny, its deep liquidity, low fees, and data partnership with NYSE parent ICE (a major investor) form a strong moat for its new revenue "money machine."

marsbit2 days ago 02:10

Polymarket Rushes to Launch Token with Revenue Data? Sports Market Opens for Fees, Aiming to Become Web3's New "Money Printing Machine"

marsbit2 days ago 02:10

Polygon Surpasses Ethereum in Daily Transaction Fees

According to data from Token Terminal, Polygon, a scaling solution for Ethereum, surpassed Ethereum in daily transaction fee revenue for the first time. On a recent Friday, Polygon generated $407,121 in fees compared to Ethereum's $211,790. This surge is largely attributed to heavy usage of the prediction market platform Polymarket, which has driven significant on-chain activity. For instance, an Oscars-related market on Polymarket saw over $15 million in wagers. Additionally, increased stablecoin activity, particularly USDC, on the Polygon network has contributed to this growth. While the trend continued over the weekend, fees have since normalized, with Ethereum regaining its lead. This event highlights a momentary shift in network activity, prompting discussions on long-term competition.

TheNewsCrypto02/17 13:45

Polygon Surpasses Ethereum in Daily Transaction Fees

TheNewsCrypto02/17 13:45

Analysis Report on Prediction Markets for the Russia-Ukraine War

As global tensions rise due to events like the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict, and other geopolitical risks, the demand for open-source intelligence (OSINT) has grown significantly. This report analyzes the predictive market, particularly Polymarket, as a form of OSINT that leverages public data to forecast outcomes. Initially serving blockchain users, Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election by accurately predicting Trump’s victory with 65% probability a week before results were official, reaching 90% on election night—outperforming traditional polls and media. With $3.686 billion in trading volume, the event shifted perceptions of predictive markets from mere gambling to a credible data source. The core value lies not in betting itself, but in the informational edge it provides, allowing insiders to signal outcomes—from entertainment awards to geopolitical events—through market activity. This transforms traditional information flow, enabling early insight into everything from business decisions to military movements, making market prices a powerful real-time signal.

marsbit02/14 04:19

Analysis Report on Prediction Markets for the Russia-Ukraine War

marsbit02/14 04:19

Earning $80,000 in One Day: How Top Players Turn Polymarket into Their Personal ATM?

In just under a day, a top trader on Polymarket, using the handle Bidou28old, netted $80,000 by exploiting the platform’s newly launched ultra-short-term prediction markets (5-minute and 15-minute intervals). The user is believed to be a quantitative trader or arbitrageur leveraging low-latency data feeds to capitalize on pricing delays. With only 48 total predictions, the trader maintained a remarkably high risk-reward ratio, often buying outcomes with only a 3-8% probability (e.g., betting on a Bitcoin rebound within minutes during a sharp decline). Even with 7 losses exceeding $10,000, the strategy remained profitable due to high payoff multiples—sometimes as high as 33x. The trader employed strict position management, placing large bets ($7,000–$19,000) on high-probability opportunities and securing returns between $4,800–$6,400 per successful trade. In one notable 30-minute span, the user executed three consecutive winning trades, earning over $18,000, demonstrating a high-frequency, data-driven approach. Activity was concentrated during U.S. evening hours (7:30–11:00 PM ET), suggesting either a North American night trader or a professional Asian quant operating during daytime hours. The trader focused predominantly on Bitcoin and Ethereum due to their high liquidity and volatility. This case highlights how sophisticated players use quantitative strategies and real-time market data to systematically profit from short-term market movements on prediction platforms.

比推02/13 12:51

Earning $80,000 in One Day: How Top Players Turn Polymarket into Their Personal ATM?

比推02/13 12:51

NYSE Parent Company ICE Makes Major Moves: Dual Approach with Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools

NYSE parent company ICE has launched two major initiatives: seven new CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts and a market sentiment tool using Polymarket prediction data. The futures include indices and single-asset contracts like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and BNB, all cash-settled in USD. These are based on established CoinDesk indices, which are widely used in ETFs and manage over $40 billion in assets. Additionally, ICE plans to introduce a USDC futures product based on CoinDesk’s overnight rate, marking a significant step in recognizing DeFi rates in traditional finance. Simultaneously, ICE is leveraging its investment in Polymarket to offer institutional investors real-time predictive data on events like geopolitical risks or commodity price shifts, enhancing decision-making with crowd-sourced market signals. These moves reflect ICE’s broader strategy to integrate crypto and traditional finance, expanding its ecosystem through partnerships and new products in a crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

marsbit02/13 06:45

NYSE Parent Company ICE Makes Major Moves: Dual Approach with Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools

marsbit02/13 06:45

Odaily's On-Site Experience at Polymarket's First New York Store: The Most Timely Charity and Marketing

Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, opened a free pop-up grocery store named "The Polymarket" in Lower Manhattan, New York, on February 12th. The initiative, framed as a charity event, offered all items—from fresh produce to household essentials—completely free until February 16th. Despite a delayed opening, hundreds of New Yorkers queued for hours, with lines stretching multiple blocks. Most attendees were unaware of Polymarket's core business as a prediction market, learning of the event through social media or community groups. The operation was meticulously organized, with staff assisting shoppers and a limit of one bag per person. In addition to the pop-up, Polymarket donated $1 million to the Food Bank For New York City. The timing was notable, coinciding with a proposal by the new mayor to open city-run low-cost grocery stores. A competitor, Kalshi, ran a similar promotion days earlier. While clearly a marketing effort, the event provided tangible relief to residents grappling with high living costs, with many expressing gratitude for the support.

Odaily星球日报02/13 05:49

Odaily's On-Site Experience at Polymarket's First New York Store: The Most Timely Charity and Marketing

Odaily星球日报02/13 05:49

Israeli Military Catching Insiders on Polymarket

Israeli military and civilian prosecutors have charged a reservist soldier and a civilian with using classified military information to profit from bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The suspects allegedly leveraged insider knowledge on the timing of military operations to place winning bets, netting over $150,000. One user, identified as "Rundeep," reportedly achieved a 100% success rate in six Israel-related predictions, often betting when odds were below 50%. The case highlights concerns about insider trading on prediction markets, especially regarding sensitive areas like military actions, where such activities could compromise operational security and potentially influence real-world outcomes. Regulatory scrutiny may follow as these platforms face growing scrutiny over their role in public affairs betting.

Odaily星球日报02/13 02:28

Israeli Military Catching Insiders on Polymarket

Odaily星球日报02/13 02:28

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