On the Eve of the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike, Why Did Bitcoin Fall First?
On December 15, Bitcoin fell over 5% to $85,616, while gold remained nearly unchanged. The drop was not due to crypto-specific news but was instead linked to expectations around the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) upcoming interest rate decision.
The BOJ was widely expected to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on December 19—its highest rate in 30 years. This triggered a unwind of the "yen carry trade," a strategy where investors borrow cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like U.S. stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. Higher Japanese interest rates reduce the profitability of this trade, forcing global funds to sell assets—including Bitcoin—to repay yen-denominated loans. Bitcoin, being highly liquid and volatile, is often among the first to be sold.
Historically, BOJ rate hikes have correlated with significant Bitcoin declines. For example, after the July 2024 hike, BTC fell 23% in a week. This reaction underscores Bitcoin’s shifting identity: once considered "digital gold," it now behaves more like a high-risk asset correlated with tech stocks. Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional investors have treated Bitcoin as part of a broader risk-asset portfolio, selling it alongside stocks during market stress.
While the BOJ’s decision was largely anticipated, its wording could influence market volatility. If the bank signals further tightening, additional selling pressure may follow. However, some analysts believe the impact may be milder this time due to shifted market positioning and broader global liquidity conditions.
In summary, Bitcoin’s decline ahead of the BOJ meeting reflects its increased sensitivity to global macro liquidity shifts. As institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin has become more integrated into traditional finance—gaining legitimacy but losing its earlier immunity to external monetary events.
marsbit12/17 07:20
