# Automation Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Automation", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

This article details the development and backtesting of an automated trading bot for the "BTC 15-minute UP/DOWN" market on Polymarket. The author identified market inefficiencies and automated a manual strategy to exploit them. The bot operates in two modes. In manual mode, users can directly place orders. In auto mode, it runs a two-leg cycle: First, it observes the market for a set time after a round begins. If either the "UP" or "DOWN" side drops by a specified percentage (e.g., 15%) within seconds, it triggers "Leg 1" and buys the crashed side. It then waits for "Leg 2," a hedging trade on the opposite side, which is only executed if the sum of the Leg 1 entry price and the opposite ask price meets a target threshold (e.g., ≤ 0.95). Due to a lack of historical market data from Polymarket's API, the author created a custom backtesting system by recording 6 GB of live price snapshots over four days. A conservative backtest with parameters of a 15% crash threshold and a 0.95 sum target showed an 86% ROI, turning $1,000 into $1,869. An aggressive parameter set resulted in a -50% loss, highlighting the critical role of parameter selection. The author acknowledges significant limitations of the backtesting, including its short data period, failure to model order book depth, partial fills, variable network latency, and the market impact of the bot's own orders. Future improvements include rewriting the bot in Rust for performance, running a dedicated node, and deploying on a low-latency VPS.

marsbit12/30 04:07

86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

marsbit12/30 04:07

Steam, Steel, and Infinite Intelligence

The article "Steam, Steel, and Infinite Mind" by Ivan Zhao, CEO of Notion, explores how AI is poised to become the defining technological material of our era, much like steel shaped the Gilded Age and semiconductors enabled the digital age. The author argues that while AI currently mimics past forms—like early films resembling stage plays or AI chatbots resembling search engines—it holds transformative potential. At the individual level, AI can elevate knowledge workers from "bicycles" to "cars," as seen with programmers who now use AI assistants to become dramatically more efficient. However, two key challenges remain: fragmented context across tools and the lack of verifiability in non-programming knowledge work. At the organizational level, AI acts like "steel" for companies, enabling them to scale without the inefficiencies of human communication as a bottleneck. It also parallels the steam engine, which initially replaced water wheels but later allowed entirely new factory designs. Most companies are still in the "water wheel stage," using AI within old workflows rather than reimagining operations around continuous, asynchronous intelligence. On an economic scale, AI could enable a shift from human-scale "Florence-like" organizations to AI-augmented "megacities" of knowledge work—larger, faster, and more complex, but also more powerful. The conclusion urges looking beyond the rearview mirror to imagine and build this new frontier of infinite intelligence.

marsbit12/29 04:56

Steam, Steel, and Infinite Intelligence

marsbit12/29 04:56

Steam, Steel, and Infinite Intelligence

Steam, Steel, and Infinite Intelligence Each era is defined by its core technological material: steel forged the Gilded Age, semiconductors enabled the digital age, and now, AI arrives as infinite intelligence. History shows that those who master the material define the era. Today, AI often resembles a supercharged search engine, but we are in an uncomfortable transition period. The future of knowledge work can be envisioned through historical metaphors. At the individual level, AI transition is like moving from a bicycle to a car. Top practitioners, like programmers, are already becoming managers of infinite intelligence, achieving 30-40x productivity gains. For others to follow, two key problems must be solved: fragmented context across dozens of tools and a lack of verifiability for general knowledge work. Once these are addressed, billions will move from "bicycles" to "cars" and eventually to "autopilot." For organizations, AI is the new steel and steam. Companies historically lose efficiency as they scale, burdened by human-scale communication. AI, like steel, can provide coherent context and decision-making support, allowing companies to scale without decay. Like the steam engine, it will enable a complete reimagining of workflows beyond simply replacing old tools, moving from water wheels to powerful, always-on intelligence. For the entire economy, this shift mirrors the transition from a human-scale city like Florence to a modern megacity. The knowledge economy, which constitutes nearly half of US GDP, still operates on a human scale. With AI, we will build "Tokyo"—organizations of thousands of humans and AIs, operating across time zones, synthesizing decisions with precise human input. This will be faster and more leveraged, though initially disorienting. We are still in the "water wheel" stage of AI, plugging chatbots into human-designed workflows. The challenge is to stop looking through the rearview mirror and start building the next skyline with the new materials of infinite intelligence.

深潮12/29 04:47

Steam, Steel, and Infinite Intelligence

深潮12/29 04:47

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