Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
On December 13, Coinbase Markets announced on platform X that Lighter had been added to its listing roadmap; On December 21, Lighter officially announced on Discord, requiring users to complete airdrop address registration by December 26; On December 23, Binance launched Lighter (LIT) perpetual contract pre-market trading. With multiple key milestones landing in quick succession, market expectations for Lighter's imminent Token Generation Event (TGE) have rapidly heated up.
On-chain data further confirms this judgment. On December 20, the Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT to a new address (0x98e7769167194A8Cf272B649319676bE84052b5f); This morning, this address has already distributed varying amounts of tokens to 20 addresses, with the highest single transaction being approximately 3.1 million tokens and the lowest about 9,820 tokens. It currently still holds about 230 million LIT. Although the official use of this batch of tokens has not been disclosed, the community widely speculates it may be for airdrop-related distribution.
It is worth noting that 250 million LIT恰好 exactly accounts for 25% of the total token supply,高度 consistent with the community's previous猜测猜测 about "25% allocated for airdrops," further strengthening the market's judgment that Lighter is about to complete its TGE.
Lighter token contract transfers 250 million LIT to a new address
Regarding the timeline expectation, feedback from participants of the previous Lighter Japan AMA suggests the TGE might occur in the window from December 24 to January 1 next year; On the prediction event "When will Lighter conduct its TGE?" on Polymarket, December 29 has the highest probability, currently around 75%.
Polymarket prediction event: "On which day will Lighter conduct its TGE?"
Lighter Ranks First in Perp Dex Sector by Perpetual Contract Volume Over Past 30 Days
Lighter is a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum Layer 2 (L2), aiming to combine the speed and liquidity of centralized exchanges (CEX) with the security and transparency of decentralized exchanges (DEX).
According to DeFiLlama data, over the past 30 days, Lighter led the Perp Dex sector with approximately $232.3 billion in perpetual contract trading volume, ahead of Aster ($195.5 billion) and Hyperliquid ($182 billion).
Perp Dex sector perpetual contract trading volume ranking
Furthermore, Lighter's TVL has continued to rise in recent months, currently surpassing $1.4 billion, exceeding Aster's ($1.27 billion).
Lighter TVL Data
If Aster's backer is Binance, then Lighter's backer is Ethereum. As Lighter CEO Vladimir Novakovski previously commented on platform X, “Being an L1 is a bug, not a feature.”
Lighter CEO comments on Lighter's choice of a modular L2 route
Instead of choosing a closed architecture like HyperLiquid's self-built L1, Lighter adopts a core route of "Ethereum-native composability": LLP Tokens can circulate on the mainnet and synergize with DeFi protocols like Aave, thus enjoying a low-cost, low-latency, verifiable execution environment within an open ecosystem. In other words, Lighter's goal is to allow any protocol to reuse its matching engine and capital system. Lighter is not meant to replace Ethereum, but to evolve with Ethereum, becoming the underlying engine for high-performance on-chain finance.
Lighter Valuation and Pre-Market Pricing
Based on Binance's perpetual contract pre-market trading, the LIT price has slowly declined from an initial $3.9 to a current quote of $3.2. At the current price, Lighter's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is approximately $3.2 billion.
If 25% of the total token supply is entirely used for future airdrops, and given a total of 12 million points, then each point corresponds to approximately 20.8 LIT. Estimated at the current pre-market price, each point is worth about $66.
Market Participants' Valuation Range Estimates
Crypto KOL ingalvarez.sol (@ingalvarezsol) predicted Lighter's valuation by combining factors from Polymarket, OTC point prices, and the pre-market LIT token price:
- $1.5 billion Minimum valuation under pessimistic conditions, corresponding to a token price of ~$1.5;
- $3–4.2 billion: Bear market benchmark range, corresponding to a token price of ~$3 to $4;
- $7.5–12.5 billion: Optimistic scenario, corresponding to a token price of ~$7.5 to $12.5;
Another early Lighter user, Chuk (@chuk_xyz), also made predictions based on Lighter's TVL, trading volume, revenue, and other data:
- Bear Market Range ($1.5B–$4.2B FDV): If the price operates within this range post-TGE, it can be seen as an opportunity zone. The psychological pressure on airdrop holders is lowest, and the risk-reward ratio is clearest.
- Benchmark Range ($4.2B–$7.5B FDV): If Lighter can stabilize its TVL and maintain a top-tier operational scale, this range can be considered fair value. After the price enters this range, it is suitable to take staged profits to break even while retaining some position.
- Bull Market Range ($7.5B–$12.5B+ FDV): This range意味着 core catalysts have been fully priced in by the market, including strengthened RWA momentum and consensus formed around the distribution narrative (fintech/broker alignment). This stage is more suitable for continuously reducing positions during the upward trend.
On the Polymarket prediction event "Lighter FDV one day after opening," the probability of exceeding $1 billion FDV is as high as 88%, and the probability of exceeding $2 billion FDV is also 83%.
Polymarket event: "Lighter FDV one day after opening"
In summary, the market's minimum expectation for Lighter's opening valuation is an FDV of $1.5 billion, corresponding to a token price of $1.5. Therefore, if the opening price pulls back, $1.5 is an ideal short-term entry price.
Do Not "Celebrate at Halftime," Closely Monitor Official Announcements
Early participants in Lighter interactions must not "celebrate at halftime"; points cannot be considered profit until they are converted into actual LIT tokens. According to the latest announcement from Lighter on their official Discord, "We have entered the final stage of the second season points event. Data analysis is currently underway to remove points obtained by sybil addresses, self-trading, and wash trading. All slashed points (including portions already removed) will be redistributed to the community."
Latest announcement from Lighter on official Discord
