Geopolitics continues to weigh on risk assets. This week alone, roughly $120 billion has been wiped from the market, pushing the TOTAL index back toward pre-election levels as capital keeps rotating out.
Over the same stretch, gold (XAU) pushed back, reinforcing the idea that investors are still leaning on the metal as a hedge. That said, one notable move stood out, with XAU closing down 3.19% on the 12th of February.
At the same time, Bitcoin [BTC] slipped 1.2%, while the S&P500 (SPX) dropped 1.57%, marking its sharpest single-day sell-off in nearly a month. Overall, the session played out like another “market-wide” flush.
Naturally, the question arises: What triggered the move? A report from Bloomberg stirred fresh debate among analysts, pointing to Russia shifting back toward U.S. dollar usage as part of a broader economic partnership.
From a technical standpoint, the shift would signal a return to the dollar as a settlement tool, potentially giving the DXY a fresh tailwind after more than a year of downside pressure that dragged it back toward 2022 levels.
However, Bitcoin’s dip following the news suggests the market isn’t treating this as bullish. Technically, a stronger dollar makes bonds a more compelling high-yield alternative, weakening BTC’s risk-reward appeal.
That said, recent cycles show that a falling dollar hasn’t reliably driven Bitcoin higher. This raises the key question: Could a “sentiment” shift tied to a strengthening U.S. dollar actually turn bullish for risk assets?
Is sentiment more important than structure for Bitcoin?
The market still isn’t convinced Bitcoin has found a bottom.
Several signals explain the hesitation. Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, logged another $276 million in outflows after three straight days of inflows, showing that institutional demand remains fragile.
Adding to the caution, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) has yet to flip bullish since peaking ahead of October’s crash. In this backdrop, calling a BTC bottom looks premature, with sentiment still far from fully reset.
Accumulation, however, remains active. Heavyweights like Binance and Strategy (MSTR), which have acquired over 42k BTC so far in 2026, continue to signal steady long-term positioning despite the uncertainty.
Structurally, Bitcoin continues to trade in a choppy range above the $60K level, with accumulation helping to hold this zone as support. The key question is whether this range will resolve into a breakout, but that won’t happen until sentiment shifts.
This is where the Bloomberg report becomes important, as highlighted by AMBCrypto. Sentiment, more than structure, is driving Bitcoin’s moves.
A strategic partnership between two major economies could help restore investor confidence, making this development one to watch closely.
Final Thoughts
- Despite structural support around $60k, Bitcoin’s moves are driven more by sentiment than charts.
- Russia’s shift back to USD settlements and a potential strategic partnership could ease macro FUD, impacting both the DXY and risk assets.
