India’s $5T crypto volume vs. policy silence: Why Budget 2026 is a ‘make or break’ moment

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-22Last updated on 2026-01-22

Abstract

India, a $4+ trillion economy with an estimated 100 million crypto users, remains in policy limbo regarding digital assets. While cryptocurrency trading is legal, it is heavily taxed (30% on profits and 1% TDS) and monitored, yet lacks a clear regulatory framework. This uncertainty has led to a significant portion of trading activity moving offshore, with recent estimates showing Indian users generated nearly $5 trillion in volume on foreign exchanges between October 2024 and October 2025. Experts warn that continued hesitation risks capital flight and undermines India’s potential to lead in the emerging digital asset economy, making the 2026 budget a critical turning point.

Cryptocurrencies are no longer just a debate. Governments have gone from thinking of whether digital assets belong in the financial system to lining up plans for execution and usage. The market, too, for its part, has matured alongside it all.

India, however (a $4+ trillion economy), remains paused in an in-between space. The issue now is what the country’s continued hesitation means... at a time when other major economies have already gained a competitive edge.

No policy clarity? That’s okay!

India has an estimated 100 million crypto users, making it one of the largest (and fastest-growing) user bases globally. Trading crypto is legal, heavily taxed (flat 30% on profits, with 1% TDS), and closely monitored.

However, it still exists outside a coherent policy vision for what role digital assets are meant to play.

This has created a peculiar half-position.

The state benefits from participation through taxation, but stops short of formally recognizing crypto as part of the architecture. As a result, the ecosystem has grown in volume and users, but without the certainty that stakeholders treasure.

As Abhay Agarwal, Founder and CEO of GetBit, told AMBCrypto,

“...Changes would keep capital in India... and give India a great opportunity to take on the role of a thoughtful and responsible leader of the emerging digital asset economy...”

Indecision is expensive

In India’s case, the absence of a defined crypto framework has redirected participation.

Trading activity moved offshore, beyond domestic oversight and policy reach. Recent estimates say that Indian users generated close to ₹5 lakh crore (approx. $5 trillion) in trading volume on offshore crypto exchanges between October 2024 and October 2025.

BREAKING – Michael Saylor Tries To Cool Bitcoin’s Internal Rivalries — But Can He?

In a new paper, Michael Saylor addresses internal tensions within the Bitcoin community by identifying four primary camps: Maximalists, who view it as sound money; Capitalists, focused on institutional integration; Technologists, pushing protocol upgrades; and Fundamentalists, prioritizing decentralization and self-custody. Saylor argues these divisions reflect Bitcoin's maturation into a broader financial system, reaching individuals, companies, and governments, rather than signaling collapse. He suggests Bitcoin can maintain its core protocol while supporting growth in surrounding financial markets and products. This analysis comes amid market pressure on his company, MicroStrategy, following its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. The central question remains whether Saylor can mediate these rivalries rooted in money, politics, and principle.

bitcoinist1h ago

BREAKING – Michael Saylor Tries To Cool Bitcoin’s Internal Rivalries — But Can He?

bitcoinist1h ago

Hoskinson Denies Cardano Exit Rumors: ‘I’m Not Leaving’

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson dismissed rumors of his departure, clarifying in a June 4 livestream that he is only stepping back from public communication, not resigning from the project. This followed community concern after his "taking a break" post on X. Hoskinson cited an unsustainable level of online toxicity, with nearly one-third of replies to his posts being hostile or abusive, making meaningful engagement nearly impossible. While acknowledging X's role in crypto information flow, he stated the psychological cost is too high. He emphasized his focus remains on technological development like RealFi, Midnight, and research, not on ADA's price. Hoskinson described a "tale of two Cardanos": significant protocol advancements versus poor market performance leading critics to label it a failure. He called for the community to resolve this dissonance by moving discussions away from X, rethinking incentives, and developing a new shared roadmap. He was critical of the Cardano Foundation's lack of accountability. Hoskinson announced he will take time away from public videos and social media to reflect, but will continue working on Midnight. He stated he will only engage in channels where he is treated with respect and dignity.

bitcoinist2h ago

Hoskinson Denies Cardano Exit Rumors: ‘I’m Not Leaving’

bitcoinist2h ago

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on June 16-17, with markets widely expecting the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current level of 3.5-3.75%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.4% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The outcome of this meeting is anticipated to impact Bitcoin's price. If rates are held steady, Bitcoin's current market trajectory is likely to continue unchanged. Conversely, an unexpected rate hike could trigger bearish sentiment by reducing investor risk appetite and market liquidity, potentially leading to sell-offs. A rate cut, though currently considered improbable, would be the most bullish scenario, encouraging investment in risk assets like Bitcoin and potentially driving its price higher.

bitcoinist4h ago

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

bitcoinist4h ago

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, potentially going public by October. Following its latest $650 billion funding round, its pre-IPO valuation stands at $965 billion, with projections reaching up to $2 trillion at listing, which would make it the highest-valued private company ever. The article, written by Fu Sheng, addresses skepticism that this represents an AI bubble akin to the 2000 dot-com crash. It argues the current situation differs fundamentally. Unlike the internet bubble era, which relied on speculative narratives with little revenue, Anthropic's valuation is backed by unprecedented, measurable financial performance. Key data points include: * **Revenue Growth:** ARR skyrocketed from $10 billion in early 2025 to $470 billion by May 2026, targeting $100 billion by year-end—a growth curve unmatched in business history. * **Profitability:** It achieved operating profitability in Q2 2026 with an estimated $5.6 billion profit. * **Efficiency:** With ~3,000 employees and ~$470 billion ARR, its revenue per employee exceeds $10 million. Products like Claude Code, launched less than a year ago, already generate $25 billion in annualized revenue. * **Enterprise Adoption:** It boasts a strong enterprise client base, with 8 of the Fortune 10 and over 1,000 large firms spending over $1 million annually on Claude. The valuation is framed using a traditional SaaS model (e.g., a 10x Price-to-Sales multiple on $100 billion revenue). The author contends the core question for analysts has shifted from "How big could this be?" to "How much is it earning and will earn next quarter?" The discussion extends beyond Anthropic to a broader paradigm shift: the transition from a "carbon-based" to a "silicon-based" economy. Companies are increasingly prioritizing investment in compute and AI capabilities over human resources, as these directly scale productivity and competitive advantage. Anthropic's IPO is thus positioned not just as a corporate milestone, but as a price anchor for this new economic era.

链捕手4h ago

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

链捕手4h ago

US Senators Press Bank Regulators For ‘Fair’ Crypto Capital Rules

A group of U.S. Senate Republicans, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, is urging federal bank regulators to establish clear and fair capital rules for banks involved with crypto assets. In a letter to the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC, the lawmakers criticized the international Basel Committee's standards, which impose a punitive 1,250% risk weight on crypto assets, calling it a de facto ban not based on actual risk. They applauded recent interagency guidance that granted tokenized securities the same capital treatment as traditional ones, arguing this risk-based principle should apply consistently to all digital assets. The senators called on the agencies to develop a new capital framework, aligning with recent legislative progress on crypto market structure. Their push coincides with testimonies from top regulators, who emphasized a shift toward more risk-based supervision and responsible innovation, while also addressing stablecoin oversight under new proposals.

bitcoinist4h ago