Author:zhou, ChainCatcher
Remember that hot prediction event on Polymarket last October?
"First to $5,000: Gold or ETH?"
At that time, Ethereum's price surged to around $4,800, with the market giving it an 80% probability of breaking through $5,000. Many believed the era of digital gold had arrived.
Three months later, the market has given its answer.
On January 26, spot gold broke through $5,100 per ounce, while Ethereum is still oscillating between $2,800 and $3,000, with the overall crypto market remaining sluggish.
Amid extreme macroeconomic uncertainty, capital has collectively turned to the most traditional safe-haven assets, while cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility risk assets, were sold off first.
Gold Soars, Crypto Market Capital Votes with Its Feet
Gold's upward momentum stems from multiple macro factors.
First, signals of hedging against US dollar credit risk are becoming increasingly evident. The Danish academic pension fund AkademikerPension announced it would liquidate approximately $100 million in US Treasuries by the end of the month,直言 citing serious concerns about the US fiscal situation. Sweden's largest private pension fund, Alecta, also disclosed that since early 2025, it has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, amounting to approximately $7.7 to $8.8 billion. Institutions cite US policy uncertainty and持续 debt expansion as core reasons.
Second, geopolitical risks are intensifying. Less than a month into 2026, the world has already witnessed several major events, including the US proposing to "force-buy" Greenland, raiding and capturing the Venezuelan president, imposing 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and further chaos within Iran. Coupled with the prolonged stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, geopolitical issues have not eased in the new year but have shown signs of恶化.
Additionally, inflation and currency depreciation pressures persist. Against the backdrop of massive central bank liquidity injections and fiscal deficit monetization, the purchasing power of fiat currency is constantly being diluted. Gold and silver, as hard assets, naturally become the首选 for capital seeking shelter.
In this context, institutional views on gold are rapidly turning optimistic. OCBC Bank has raised its year-end gold price target for 2026 to $5,600 per ounce; Goldman Sachs has also significantly adjusted its expectations, raising its year-end target from $4,900 to $5,400.
They emphasize that持续 buying by private investors and emerging market central banks is squeezing limited gold supply. Data shows that in 2025, global central banks net purchased over 1,100 tons of gold, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain a pace of over 60 tons per month. Against the backdrop of the Fed potentially restarting rate cuts, gold ETF holdings have also begun to回升.
On the crypto market side, on-chain gold investment enthusiasm has also reached new heights. According to Coingecko data, the total market capitalization of tokenized gold has now exceeded $525 million, and tokenized silver has also hit a historical record. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale lost $18.8 million on ETH in a short period and is now doubling down on gold. It spent $36.04 million to buy 7,536 XAUT at an average price of $4,786, with an unrealized profit of $2.3 million.
In contrast, the cryptocurrency market presents a截然不同的 picture. Bitcoin has fallen about 30% from last year's high, and Ethereum has dropped about 40%. Last week, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded massive net outflows: Bitcoin ETF net outflows were $1.33 billion (the second-highest weekly规模 in history), and Ethereum ETF net outflows were $611 million.
As of January 20, the performance of the two largest crypto treasury companies varied. Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds a total of 709,715 BTC with an average cost of $75,979, resulting in a floating profit of $10.813 billion. Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) holds a total of 4,203,036 ETH with an average cost of $3,857, resulting in a floating loss of $3.232 billion.
Market sentiment is clearly偏向 bearish. The famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted Bitcoin's crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin bear market channel is complete and issued a sell signal again. He pointed out that Bitcoin's price needs to recover to $93,000 to negate the sell signal. Bloomberg analysts even believe that the possibility of Ethereum falling below $2,000 in the short term is higher than returning to $4,000.
Capital Rotation: The Day Gold Stops Rising is the Day Crypto Reverses?
However, the crypto market's sluggishness is more of a阶段性表现 of capital rotation. During periods of extreme risk aversion, capital flow typically first rushes into zero-credit-risk assets like US Treasuries and gold. Only after the peak of risk passes does it gradually flow back into stocks and crypto markets.
The current collective rise of gold, silver, and some大宗商品 is precisely the most concentrated stage of defensive allocation. Once gold's momentum weakens as it approaches institutional target prices, or a major macro risk shows signs of easing, profit-takers will likely begin searching for the next high-return opportunity. At that time, deeply回调ed crypto assets, with leverage fully washed out, will become the most natural承接 object.
Specifically for Bitcoin and Ethereum, their respective bottoming signals are becoming increasingly clear.
For Bitcoin, massive on-chain realized losses are often a classic bottom特征. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's realized loss (Realized Loss) has reached $4.5 billion, the highest level in three years. The last time this happened, Bitcoin's price was around $28,000 after about a year of brief adjustment.
On the institutional side, Bitcoin treasury companies continue to increase their BTC holdings through financing plans, especially after MSCI decided not to remove MSTR from its indices for now, prompting passive funds like Vanguard to follow up and buy MSTR stock. Arthur Hayes publicly stated that the core trading strategy this quarter is to go long on MSTR and Metaplanet.
The situation with Ethereum is similar. On one hand, over 36 million ETH has been staked, accounting for nearly 30% of the circulating supply, with the exit queue接近 zero. Validators are expressing long-term confidence in the network with their actions. On the other hand, BitMine recently obtained shareholder approval to increase the上限 of shares the company can issue to enhance future financing flexibility, and it will most likely continue to increase its Ethereum holdings.
It is worth mentioning that on Polymarket currently, the probability of BlackRock executive Rieder succeeding the Fed chair is close to 50%, significantly领先 competitors. Market analysis suggests that if this event materializes, his friendly stance towards RWA and the crypto ecosystem could provide a major boost to the crypto market.
However, history has proven countless times that when precious metal行情 go crazy, they are completely unreasonable.
How high can gold go next? No one knows. What needs to be done now is not to guess where the top is, let alone short it. In an era of inflation cycles and credit revaluation叠加, it is difficult to call a top for gold.
Loyal crypto investors may only need to patiently wait for the rotation signal to appear. Hopefully, that day will come sooner than we imagine.
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