Author: 137Labs
The Middle East situation has escalated abruptly, making energy supply security a core variable in global markets once again. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rising shipping and insurance costs, and expectations of potential supply disruptions have rapidly driven up the risk premium for crude oil; meanwhile, a resurgence in risk aversion and rising inflation expectations are pushing gold higher. This article systematically examines how war affects the pricing logic of oil and gold through three pathways—supply shock, inflation transmission, and risk appetite contraction—and, by combining historical conflict experiences with the current macroeconomic environment, analyzes the performance differences of risk assets like Bitcoin during periods of high uncertainty, exploring key future market variables and asset allocation directions.
I. The Macro Background of Rising Oil and Gold Prices: Repricing of Risk Premiums
The simultaneous strengthening of international oil and gold prices in early 2026 is not an isolated event. From supply-demand structures to inflation expectations and the accumulation of geopolitical risk premiums, the foundation for price increases is already in place.
On the oil front, the global supply system was already in a fragile balance. OPEC+ continues its production cut policies, U.S. shale oil growth is marginally slowing, and global inventories are at relatively low levels. On the demand side, the recovery of Asian economies coupled with seasonal inventory restocking has kept the oil market in a tight balance. Under this structure, any potential risk of supply disruption is quickly amplified by the market.
For gold, sustained central bank purchases, periodic inflows into ETFs, and the market's reassessment of the medium- to long-term inflation trajectory have collectively pushed up the price center. The global uncertainty index remains high, reinforcing gold's role as a safe-haven asset.
Thus, even before the outbreak of geopolitical conflict, oil and gold already had the structural underpinnings for a rally.
II. Escalation of Middle East Conflict: Supply Shock and the Risk to the "Marine Oil Valve"
After Israel carried out military strikes on Iranian targets, the situation in the Middle East rapidly heated up. The core of the conflict lies not only in the military aspect but also in its geographical location—a choke point for global energy transportation.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global seaborne crude oil trade. Any disruption or surge in insurance costs can quickly be factored into futures prices as a risk premium, even without actual supply cuts. The market pre-prices scenarios such as tanker attacks, refinery damage, and port closures, leading to a spike in oil prices.
Meanwhile, attacks on energy facilities and shipping disruptions further reinforce the narrative of "supply fragility." Prices for natural gas, refined products, and related derivatives also experience synchronized volatility. Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, causing fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury yield curve and the dollar index, and putting pressure on global risk assets.
While the military scale of the conflict itself is hard to gauge, the market's response to supply chain uncertainty is significantly more sensitive than its assessment of the hostilities.
III. Asset Transmission Mechanism: From Energy Shock to Risk Appetite Contraction
War affects precious metals and oil primarily through three pathways:
1. Supply Shock Pathway
Crude oil is a fundamental energy source for the real economy. Rising transportation costs, expectations of inventory drawdowns, and increased insurance premiums are quickly reflected in futures prices. Higher energy costs further transmit to industrial metals, agricultural products, and global shipping indices.
2. Inflation Expectation Pathway
Rising oil prices imply potential future CPI pressure. The market begins reassessing central bank policy paths. If expectations of inflation returning strengthen, expectations of lower real interest rates will support gold prices.
3. Risk Appetite Pathway
Geopolitical conflicts are typically accompanied by increased stock market volatility, with capital shifting toward high-liquidity and safe-haven assets. Gold benefits noticeably, and the U.S. dollar may also strengthen in the short term due to safe-haven demand. Highly valued risk assets, however, face valuation compression.
IV. Immediate Performance of Gold and Crude Oil
After the escalation of conflict, oil prices rose rapidly, with significant intraday gains. Market focus centered on transportation security and the integrity of energy facilities. Trading exhibited clear risk-hedging behavior, and volatility indicators rose in tandem.
Gold prices continued their upward trend. Institutional investors increased their safe-haven exposure, boosting demand for physical gold and ETFs. Silver, among precious metals, also strengthened, but with higher elasticity and more violent fluctuations than gold.
Market pricing logic displayed typical "war premium" characteristics:
· Energy: Supply risk premium
· Gold: Safe-haven and real interest rate expectations
· Stocks: Risk discount
· Bonds: Policy expectation rebalancing
V. Historical Comparison: How War Alters Volatility in Commodities and Crypto Assets
Historical experience shows that every major geopolitical conflict in the Middle East or elsewhere has led to phased剧烈 volatility in energy and precious metals.
· During the Gulf War, oil prices spiked short-term before retreating as the situation clarified.
· At the onset of the Iraq War, gold rose while risk assets came under pressure.
· The 2019 attack on Saudi refinery facilities caused a single-day surge in oil prices.
· After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy and gold prices both jumped, driving up global inflation.
The commonality is:
Markets generally overprice worst-case scenarios initially; subsequently, as information transparency improves, price fluctuations tend to rationalize.
VI. Bitcoin and Crypto Assets: Safe Haven or High-Beta Risk Asset?
In this round of conflict, Bitcoin prices showed significant volatility. Unlike gold's one-way safe-haven attribute, Bitcoin's reaction is more complex.
Research indicates that when geopolitical risks rise, Bitcoin may move in the same direction as risk assets in the short term—i.e., it corrects同步ously as risk appetite declines. However, in regions with capital controls or rising currency devaluation pressures, Bitcoin may also be seen as a tool for capital transfer, leading to structurally increased demand.
Statistically, there is a phased correlation between Bitcoin and energy prices or geopolitical risk indices, but this relationship is not stable or linear. Its price is more influenced by the global liquidity environment and the trend of the U.S. dollar.
Therefore, in the context of war, Bitcoin is closer to a "high-volatility risk asset" than a traditional stable safe-haven tool.
VII. Core Variables for the Current Market
The key factors affecting the market going forward are threefold:
1. Whether the conflict spills over: If the situation is confined to limited strikes, the oil risk premium may gradually recede; if it involves strait blockades or multiple countries, the supply shock will significantly escalate.
2. Changes in shipping and insurance costs: The actual degree of logistics disruption determines the energy price center.
3. Inflation and policy path: If energy prices remain high, the pace of central bank interest rate cuts may be delayed.
In a high-uncertainty environment, asset pricing logic returns to "safety first." Gold benefits from rising risk premiums and changes in real interest rate expectations; crude oil depends on the actual extent of supply damage; Bitcoin seeks a new balance between risk appetite and liquidity.
VIII. Conclusion: The Cyclical and Structural Nature of War Premiums
Precious metals and oil are not merely commodities; they are amplifiers of global risk sentiment. War brings not only supply and demand shocks but also challenges to the stability of the global financial system.
History shows that the剧烈 price fluctuations in the early stages of war often contain an emotional premium; the mid-to-late trend depends on the degree of fundamental repair and the policy response.
In the current environment, the market is reassessing three core questions:
· Will there be a substantial disruption in energy supply?
· Will inflation resurge?
· Is global risk appetite entering a contraction cycle?
These three points will determine the price path of gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin in the coming months.
War changes not only the geopolitical landscape but also reshapes the risk boundaries of asset prices.
(This article represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice.)
