Dogecoin – Analyzing the effect of profit-taking on DOGE’s latest rally attempts

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-04-10Last updated on 2026-04-10

Abstract

Dogecoin (DOGE) has struggled to sustain its mid-March rally, remaining range-bound since late February. This consolidation phase follows a downtrend from October, with further lows possible depending on Bitcoin and market conditions. On-chain data shows a decline in new address growth, similar to the 2024 downtrend, indicating potential for new price lows. Active addresses and transaction volumes spiked in mid-March as DOGE approached $0.104, reflecting profit-taking behavior. The 3-month mean coin age has been falling, indicating selling by short-term holders, while the 1-year mean coin age is rising, suggesting accumulation by long-term holders. However, this accumulation may not be sufficient for a significant rally beyond $0.104, as short-term holders are likely to sell into any price bounce.

The altcoin market sentiment has been fragile lately. The rally in mid-March brought some coins to new local highs, but they were unable to sustain the move. Dogecoin [DOGE] is one of the many altcoins unable to make new highs. It has been trading within a range since late February.

After the strong downtrend from October, this sideways price trend over the past two months seemed to represent a consolidation phase. That is not to say there won’t be new price lows, however, as this would depend on Bitcoin [BTC] and market conditions.

Source: Glassnode

The new address growth metric uses the growth and contraction in the number of non-zero DOGE wallets to map on-chain growth. A drop in non-zero Dogecoin-holding wallets hinted at a purge of wallets.

The growth tends to increase when Dogecoin goes on a strong rally. In the last eight months, the network growth has progressively slowed down.

The ongoing phase may be reminiscent of the 2024 consolidation in terms of address growth. On the price front though, there were differences, with the primary one being the two-month consolidation above the $0.088 support.

High activity warns of DOGE profit-taking

Source: Santiment

Since the February crash, active addresses and transaction volumes have seen a hike in activity from 10-19 March. During this time, Bitcoin was moving towards the $76k local high and spurred altcoins higher too.

The surge in activity when DOGE prices approached the $0.104 local highs reflected a tendency to take profits and exit the market. The limited upside and the repeated tests of the $0.09 local support zone were a worry for the bulls.

Source: Santiment

Finally, the 3-month mean coin age has been falling since January. This showed that short-term holders were selling the memecoin. Additionally, the 3-month MVRV was near the 8% drawdown mark that has sparked sell-offs in recent months.

On the other hand, the 1-year mean coin age has been rising since February. This alluded to accumulation from long-term holders after the selling from October to February.

It remains to be seen if this accumulation is enough for a rally beyond the $0.104 local highs. Short-term holders will likely sell aggressively into any such bounce and holders need to be cautious of expecting too much from any potential relief rally.


Final Summary

  • New address growth was low and similar in profile to the 2024 downtrend, suggesting that DOGE might make new lows once more.
  • Long-term holders have been accumulating the memecoin since February, but this might not result in a sizeable rally soon.

Related Questions

QWhat does the decline in non-zero Dogecoin wallets indicate according to the article?

AA drop in non-zero Dogecoin-holding wallets hints at a purge of wallets, indicating a contraction in on-chain network growth.

QWhat was the observed behavior of short-term DOGE holders based on the 3-month mean coin age metric?

AThe 3-month mean coin age has been falling since January, showing that short-term holders were selling the memecoin.

QWhat price level did the article identify as a key local support zone for DOGE?

AThe article identified the $0.09 level as a key local support zone that was repeatedly tested.

QWhat does the rising 1-year mean coin age metric suggest about long-term holders?

AThe rising 1-year mean coin age suggests accumulation from long-term holders after the selling period from October to February.

QWhat was the primary concern for bulls regarding DOGE's price action mentioned in the article?

AThe primary concern for bulls was the limited upside and the repeated tests of the $0.09 local support zone, indicating weakness.

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3.7k Total ViewsPublished 2025.02.03Updated 2025.02.03

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