Crypto Morning Brief: Offshore Yuan Breaks Through 7.0 Against USD Again, Trust Wallet Users' Funds Stolen

深潮Published on 2025-12-26Last updated on 2025-12-26

Abstract

Crypto Morning Brief: Offshore RMB breaks through 7.0 against the USD again, while Trust Wallet users suffer a security breach with at least $6 million stolen. Bitcoin mining difficulty slightly increased to 148.26 T. Hong Kong is moving towards legislation for OTC digital asset trading and custody services. Analysts report significant losses for Trend Research's ETH holdings. CZ is noted as a beneficiary of Trump's informal clemency process. AI-related crypto tokens have lost 75% of their value in 2025. Infinex reduces its INX token sale valuation to $99.99M. Pantera Capital predicts trends for 2026 including AI-integration and tokenized gold. Major exchanges like Binance lead in liquidity and derivatives trading. Concerns are raised about legal risks associated with crypto-backed payment cards in China.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Yesterday's Market Dynamics

Offshore yuan breaks through the 7.0 mark against the US dollar again, onshore yuan breaks through 7.01

According to Sina quotes, the offshore yuan once again broke through the 7.0 mark against the US dollar. According to China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the onshore yuan broke through the 7.01 mark, hitting a new high since September 27, 2024.

Bitcoin mining difficulty increases by 0.04% to 148.26 T

According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted on December 25, 2025, at 11:48:06 (at block height 929,376), increasing by 0.04% to 148.26 T. The current seven-day average network hash rate is 1.08 EH/s.

Wu Jiezhuang: Legislation on digital asset OTC trading and custody can legitimize related services and combat fraud

Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang posted on X platform: "Welcome the Hong Kong SAR Government's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau's new developments in promoting digital asset trading. The legislative proposal for digital asset trading and custody services has officially entered consultation, representing a further clarification of related digital asset regulatory activities and responding to market demands and ideas. Past consultations with the industry on the direction of related OTC trading and custody services have received many opinions. This proposed legislation can not only legitimize crypto and digital asset OTC trading and custody services, allowing the industry to operate more compliantly, but also combat suspected fraudulent activities disguised as such services."

"On-chain detective" ZachXBT: Trust Wallet users' stolen funds reach at least $6 million

According to on-chain detective ZachXBT (@zachxbt) monitoring, hundreds of Trust Wallet users have experienced fund theft, with losses amounting to at least $6 million. ZachXBT stated that if the responsibility is confirmed to belong to Trust Wallet, the platform may need to compensate the affected users.

Additionally, Trust Wallet issued an announcement: A security vulnerability was found in browser extension version 2.68, users need to upgrade immediately.

Analyst: Verified Trend Research ETH actual entry cost is about $3150

On-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai 9684xtpa) posted saying, according to confirmation by Yi Lihua himself, the actual entry cost for the 645,000 Ethereum (ETH) accumulated since November by his institution Trend Research is about $3150, currently floating a loss of about $143 million. Yi Lihua stated that subsequently $1 billion will be invested to continue increasing holdings, expecting to control the average ETH holding cost to about $3050.

WSJ: Zhao Changpeng becomes beneficiary of Trump's "informal pardon", exposes "pardon deal" market price of millions

The Wall Street Journal published an article disclosing that "Zhao Changpeng became one of the beneficiaries of a new, informal presidential pardon path emerging during Trump's second term. According to people around Trump, this new approach is partly driven by Trump's own experience as a criminal defendant, spawning a 'pardon deal' industry, with lobbyists saying their market price is $1 million.

It was revealed that those seeking pardons offered success fees as high as $6 million to some lobbyists close to the president, conditional on them getting it done."

AI crypto tokens market cap plummets 75% in 2025, evaporating $53 billion

According to a CryptoPresales.com report, AI-related cryptocurrencies experienced a severe correction in 2025, with market capitalization falling about 75% year-on-year, wiping out approximately $53 billion in market value. Although they experienced explosive growth in 2023-2024, as hype subsided and liquidity decreased, the market continued under pressure in 2025. The decline intensified in the fourth quarter, with nearly $10 billion evaporated in December alone. Eight major AI tokens fell more than 70%, with Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, Render, and The Graph all falling over 80%. The total market capitalization of AI and big data tokens has now dropped to $16.8 billion.

Infinex founder: Lowers INX token Sonar sale valuation to $99.99 million

Infinex founder Kain Warwick @kaiynne announced that the fully diluted valuation (FDV) for the INX token Sonar sale has been significantly reduced from the originally planned $300 million to $99.99 million, in response to market feedback that the initial pricing was too high. This sale will open for registration on December 27 and officially launch on January 3, aiming to raise $5 million, representing 5% of the total supply. Tokens will have a one-year lock-up period but retain an early unlock mechanism, with the unlock price gradually decreasing from $300 million to $100 million over time. Due to the lower valuation, the sale is expected to be significantly oversubscribed, so allocations for Patron NFT holders are not guaranteed. The entire sale will use an RNG mechanism, with a minimum investment of $200 and a maximum of $2500.

Pantera Capital partner: Predicts DAT consolidation next year, tokenized gold will rise, prediction markets will differentiate

Pantera Capital Junior Partner Jay Yu posted on social media making 12 predictions for 2026 crypto trends, including:

· Capital-efficient consumer credit: Launch of convenient lending applications through on-chain/off-chain credit modeling, modular design, and AI behavior learning.

· Prediction market differentiation: Prediction markets split into financial direction (integrated with DeFi, leveraged) and cultural direction (community-driven, long-tail enthusiasts).

· Agent commerce & x402 expansion: Agent commerce expands to micro-payments and regular payments using x402 endpoints, Solana exceeds Base in low-value transaction volume.

· AI as a crypto interface layer: AI-assisted trading (e.g., trend analysis) becomes mainstream, gradually integrated into consumer applications.

· Rise of tokenized gold: Tokenized gold becomes an important RWA (Real World Asset) asset, chosen as a store of value due to US dollar issues.

· Bitcoin quantum panic: Quantum technology breakthroughs spark institutional discussion on Bitcoin's quantum resistance, technology not yet a threat to value.

· Unified privacy development experience: Privacy technologies (e.g., Ethereum's Kohaku) provide simplified development interfaces, possibly launching privacy-as-a-service.

· DAT consolidation: Digital Asset Trading platforms (DAT) consolidate to 2-3 per major market, achieved through liquidation or merger.

· Rethinking token & equity separation: Governance token crisis prompts companies to choose privatization, possibly introducing redeemable equity tokens.

· Perpetual DEX consolidation: Hyperliquid dominates the market, HIP3 markets and yield stablecoins (e.g., HyENA) become key, USDC loses ground on HYPE.

· Multi-chain Prop AMM: Prop AMM expands to multi-chain, accounts for over half of Solana trading volume, prices more assets like RWA.

· Traditional fintech adoption of stablecoins: Stripe, Ramp, etc. use stablecoins for international payments, stablecoin chains like Tempo become fiat on-ramp bridges.

Jay Yu claimed his prediction accuracy rate for 2025 was as high as 7/10, including accurate predictions on Solana developer migration.

CoinGlass annual report: Binance, OKX, Bitget lead BTC, ETH liquidity

CoinGlass released the "2025 Cryptocurrency Derivatives Market Annual Report". The report shows that in the 2025 bilateral liquidity depth ranking for major assets like BTC and ETH, Binance, OKX, and Bitget ranked top three among global CEXs respectively.

In terms of derivatives trading volume and market share, Binance ranked first with approximately $77.45 billion in average daily trading volume and a 29.3% market share; OKX ranked second with $33.2 billion in average daily volume and a 12.5% market share; Bybit ranked third with approximately $29.1 billion in average daily volume and an 11% market share; Bitget ranked fourth with $25.2 billion in average daily volume and a 9.5% market share.

Additionally, CoinGlass conducted a comprehensive scoring and ranking of major derivatives exchanges in the report. The assessment used basic trading data as the core weight, combined with multiple dimensions such as product system, security, transparency, and market quality, to form sub-item scores and a weighted total score. The results showed Binance ranked first with a score of 94.33, OKX ranked second with 88.77, and Bitget ranked third with 83.10.

Caixin: Issuing and using U Cards domestically carries an additional layer of special legal risk

Caixin.com authored an article "The Crazy Ads on Xiaohongshu for U Cards: The Secret of Their Popularity and Fatal Risks". The article points out that users can use bank cards printed with the Visa logo to make payments such as ChatGPT Plus subscription fees, with deductions made through USDT in cryptocurrency wallets. These types of overseas bank cards are commonly known as "U Cards", a type of overseas bank card based on USDT stablecoin payments. The Caixin article also pointed out that issuing and using U Cards domestically carries an additional layer of special legal risk. Whether it is a short-lived transitional product or hides the password to the future payment landscape remains unknown.

Market Dynamics

War Trade Unwinding | TradeXYZ Weekend Observations

Weekend markets saw a clear return of risk appetite. Major indices rose broadly, with significant gains in tech and precious metals, while energy sectors fell sharply on the "end of war" narrative. On June 14, oil prices initially rose on reports Iran had not yet finalized a memorandum of understanding. Later, YNET reported Trump might immediately lift the maritime blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. At 21:30, Trump confirmed on Truth Terminal that a deal with Iran was done, authorizing an immediate end to the US blockade and toll-free opening of the Strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister simultaneously announced an immediate and permanent halt to military actions on multiple fronts. Oil prices had already fallen to weekend boundaries, pre-pricing the news. The S&P 500 subsequently touched 7530. Markets will likely remain in a waiting period until the formal peace deal signing on June 19. At the moment of the deal announcement, gold jumped from ~4,221 to a high of 4,337, and silver from ~67.85 to 70.83, before stabilizing at higher levels. Individual stocks and ETFs like NBIS, RKLB, and LITE performed strongly. NBIS, added to the Nasdaq index, saw a target price increase due to strong AI cloud growth. RKLB, also added to the index, benefited from positive SpaceX valuation sentiment. LITE received a $1,130 target from JPMorgan. SPCX rose quickly after Musk tweeted SpaceX could potentially reach ~$1 trillion in revenue by 2030. In summary, the market shock from the multi-month war is beginning to dissipate. Israel's actions remain the key variable before the June 19 signing. Upcoming events like Fed Chair Warsh's debut and BoJ rate hike expectations will also significantly impact markets this week.

marsbit11m ago

War Trade Unwinding | TradeXYZ Weekend Observations

marsbit11m ago

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

This article presents a scenario-based forecast for the crypto industry from 2026 to 2029, arguing that the next major cycle will be driven not by technological narratives but by legal access to real-world assets. The author predicts that by mid-2026, pre-IPO perpetual contracts for top private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic on platforms like Hyperliquid will become the primary gateway for accessing quality assets, as most crypto-native tokens fail to capture real value. The much-hyped AI x Crypto intersection largely fails except for prediction markets, which thrive on betting on AI model supremacy. By 2027, public blockchain foundations are forced to choose between catering to retail speculation or building compliant infrastructure for institutions, with many opting for the latter. Growth in stablecoins and tokenized private credit/equity hits a "triple ceiling" due to regulatory and political uncertainty rather than market demand. The pivotal shift is forecast for 2028. A major liquidation event in pre-IPO perpetuals exposes the structural flaw of synthetic markets lacking a real underlying asset anchor. In response, regulatory changes finally allow the public solicitation of private securities resales to verified accredited investors. This creates a legitimate secondary market for real company equity, which then becomes the core asset class of the new bull market, relegating synthetic perps to a niche role. By 2029, the industry becomes "boring" but foundational. Tokens without claims on real cash flows or assets cease trading. Stablecoin growth is steady but politically capped. Crypto infrastructure fades from view as it gets absorbed into traditional finance backends. The article's central thesis is that the key bottleneck for crypto's next phase is legal and regulatory channels for real asset ownership, not technology.

marsbit1h ago

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

marsbit1h ago

Kalshi-CFTC Fight In New Mexico Could Shape Prediction Market Rules

A jurisdictional battle between the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the state of New Mexico over the regulation of prediction markets could set national rules for the industry. At issue is who polices platforms like Kalshi, with the CFTC asserting federal oversight and New Mexico arguing state gaming and consumer protection laws apply, especially for contracts resembling wagers on events like elections or sports. The outcome will determine if prediction markets can scale nationally under a clear federal framework or face a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory landscape. This dispute is significant for the crypto-adjacent trading community, which often engages with these speculative event markets. A clearer rulebook could boost mainstream adoption, liquidity, and integration with crypto infrastructure, while a state-led challenge could stifle growth. The case is particularly sensitive for sports-related contracts, where the line between financial markets and gambling blurs. Ultimately, this legal fight will shape whether prediction markets become a scalable national product or remain constrained by jurisdictional conflicts.

bitcoinist3h ago

Kalshi-CFTC Fight In New Mexico Could Shape Prediction Market Rules

bitcoinist3h ago

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

**Summary: The Value Distribution of Stablecoins** The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from mere trading tools into broader channels for dollar access. It divides the stablecoin ecosystem into four layers to analyze how value is distributed: 1. **Issuance Layer:** Mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the spread between reserve yield and user costs (e.g., Tether, Circle). This layer currently earns the largest profit margin. 2. **Infrastructure Layer:** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and asset management (e.g., Bridge, BVNK). This is the "unglamorous" but critical work, building the essential bridges between crypto and real-world finance. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer:** Integrates stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and provides enterprise financial software (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase). They act as the access point for businesses. 4. **Application Layer:** The end-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlements, or as a store of value. They benefit from convenience but have little pricing power. The core thesis is that while the issuance layer currently dominates profits, the often-overlooked **infrastructure layer holds significant long-term potential**. The real challenge and barrier to mass adoption is not the on-chain transfer of stablecoins (which is simple), but the complex "last mile" integration into existing business workflows, banking systems, and regulatory frameworks across different countries. Companies in this layer are currently in a "land grab" phase, investing heavily to build networks, secure bank partnerships, and establish compliance pathways. While their position is currently pressured by the profitable issuers above and distribution platforms below, the article suggests that if stablecoins become a default financial rail for businesses, the infrastructure providers who have done the hard work of integration will ultimately gain strong pricing power and become entrenched, essential players.

marsbit8h ago

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from a mere trading tool into a broad "dollar channel." It analyzes the industry's value chain through four layers: 1. **Issuance Layer (e.g., Tether, Circle):** The top layer that mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the thickest interest rate spread. 2. **Infrastructure Layer (e.g., Bridge, BVNK):** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling critical but complex "dirty work" like fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and cross-border settlement. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase):** Embeds stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and integrates with enterprise software. 4. **Application Layer:** End-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlement, or storing value. The author posits that while the issuance layer currently captures the most profit, the most overlooked and potentially critical layer is infrastructure. The core challenge for stablecoin adoption isn't the on-chain transfer (which is simple), but bridging the gap between blockchain and the real-world financial system. This involves solving practical problems for businesses: fiat conversion, reconciliation, tax handling, and user onboarding. Infrastructure companies are currently in a difficult "land-grab" phase—building networks, securing banking relationships, and achieving compliance country-by-country. They face pressure from both the profitable issuance layer above and distribution platforms below. However, the author suggests this layer is building a crucial moat. Once stablecoins become a default business rail, the infrastructure players who have done the hard work of integration may gain significant, durable value and pricing power.

链捕手8h ago