Coinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q1 2026

insights.glassnodePublished on 2026-01-27Last updated on 2026-01-27

Abstract

Coinbase and Glassnode's Q1 2026 "Charting Crypto" report indicates that digital asset markets entered the year with cleaner structure, lower leverage, and more disciplined risk management following a significant deleveraging event in October 2025. Bitcoin continues to structurally outperform, with its dominance holding near 59%. Market sentiment remains cautious, with Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stabilizing in the "Anxiety" phase, suggesting a consolidation period. A key shift occurred in derivatives, where BTC options open interest has now surpassed perpetual futures, reflecting a move towards protective, defined-risk strategies rather than a full exit from risk. Ethereum is showing late-cycle characteristics, though traditional cycle-based signals are losing predictive power due to structural changes in its ecosystem. Institutional sentiment remains selectively constructive, with a preference for large-cap assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The overall market behavior points to greater structural stability compared to previous cycles.

Digital asset markets entered 2026 with cleaner structure, lower leverage, and more disciplined risk expression following last year’s deleveraging. Risk is now being repriced rather than abandoned, with derivatives positioning shifted toward protection. Sentiment remains cautious, but market behavior points to greater structural resilience than in prior cycle transitions.

Produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, our latest Charting Crypto report draws on proprietary market and on-chain data and a quarterly institutional survey to bring institutional investors a trusted perspective on the critical trends this quarter.

Read the full Charting Crypto Q1 2026 PDF report.

Download now

Bitcoin continues to outperform broader crypto markets structurally as BTC dominance held near 59% even as mid- and small-cap assets failed to sustain previous gains
BTC options OI surpassed perpetual futures after October’s deleveraging event, with positioning increasingly concentrated in protective structures as market participants hedged against further downside
Investor positioning points to distribution as BTC supply active within three months increased to 37% in Q4 of last year, while long-dormant supply declined modestly
ETH may be approaching a late-cycle phase; however, while cycle maturity is becoming evident, its influence on forward returns appears to be diminishing
Institutional sentiment remains selectively constructive: survey responses have shown preference for large-cap exposure amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Insights from Q1 2026

1. BTC sentiment remains subdued

Market sentiment for Bitcoin has remained restrained entering Q1 2026. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shifted from Belief to Anxiety during October’s liquidation event and has since stabilized at lower levels. This reflects lingering caution among participants, even as macro conditions and price structure have stabilised.

Historical NUPL regimes show that prolonged periods of Anxiety tend to coincide with consolidation phases, where investors remain engaged but hesitant to re-embrace directional risk. From a structural perspective, this leaves room for sentiment to improve should volatility compress or macro conditions remain stable.

2. Deleveraging reshaped derivatives positioning

Last year's October liquidation event materially reduced systemic leverage across crypto markets. Positions in perpetual futures were unwound at scale, driving the systematic leverage ratio down to approximately 3% of total crypto market capitalization when excluding stablecoins. This marked a clear departure from the leverage-heavy conditions that defined much of 2024 and early 2025.

Rather than exiting risk entirely, market participants reallocated exposure into options markets. BTC options open interest now exceeds that of perpetual futures, with positioning skewed toward defensive structures. This shift reflects a preference for defined-risk exposure. From a market structure standpoint, this transition supports a more resilient trading environment, even if near-term sentiment remains guarded.

3. Ethereum cycle signals carry less forward weight

Ethereum appears to be approaching the later stages of its current price performance cycle, which began from the June 2022 lows. While ETH has delivered meaningful gains over this period, recent indicators suggest that cycle-based signals are losing explanatory power.

Structural changes to Ethereum’s ecosystem, including fee compression on L2s and evolving network economics, have diluted the predictive power of traditional cycle frameworks. As a result, while late-cycle characteristics are becoming more apparent in ETH, cycle timing is increasingly insufficient as a standalone guide for future performance. Market outcomes are now more likely to be driven by broader liquidity conditions and relative positioning than by cycle duration alone.

For the full Q1 2026 edition of Charting Crypto, including institutional survey results and the joint market analysis from the Coinbase and Glassnode analyst teams, download the report here.

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For on-chain metrics, dashboards, and alerts, visit Glassnode Studio

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. The analysis represents a limited case study with significant constraints and should not be interpreted as investment advice or definitive trading signals. Past performance patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.

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What is DOGE M

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What is $M

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Strategic partnerships with infrastructure providers that enhance Mantis's network capabilities and deployment strategies. Funding through the Composable Foundation's treasury, ensuring sustained financial support for ongoing development and operational costs. These collaborative efforts reflect a consensus among stakeholders about the importance of enhancing cross-chain functionality and the potential utility of Mantis's infrastructural innovations. Key Innovations Mantis sets itself apart through several pioneering innovations that enhance its functionality and utility: Chain-Agnostic Intents: Users can initiate transactions from any supported chain while settling on another. This flexibility empowers users, driving increased interaction among different platforms. AI-Powered Interface: The integration of DISE LLM allows users to conduct complex DeFi operations using natural language, thereby simplifying interactions and making blockchain technology accessible to a broader audience. 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Historical Timeline Mantis's development is marked by several critical milestones that chart its trajectory and growth: | Year | Milestone | |————|————————————————————————-| | 2022 | Initial concept development within the Composable Foundation's research division. | | Q3 2024 | Launch of the testnet with bridging capabilities between Solana and Ethereum. | | Q1 2025 | Anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) alongside the mainnet launch. | | Q2 2025 | Expected integration of DISE LLM and expansion of cross-chain capabilities. | | 2025 H2 | Planned support for over 15 chains through further IBC upgrades. | This timeline outlines Mantis's evolution, from conceptual discussions to active implementation and future growth phases. Ecosystem Growth Strategy Mantis's strategy for ecosystem growth includes several initiatives designed to encourage user participation and developer engagement: Credits System: Users can earn protocol credits by providing liquidity and engaging in referral programs. These credits are redeemable for incentives in the future, fostering a robust user community. Modular Software Development Kit (SDK): This toolkit empowers developers to create applications based on intent-driven models utilizing Mantis's infrastructure, thus promoting innovation within its ecosystem. Governance Model: As the protocol matures, $M token holders will have a voice in protocol governance, allowing them to vote on proposed upgrades and changes, thereby enhancing community engagement and decentralization. Mantis represents a significant advancement in the realm of cross-chain architecture. 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