Author: Jae, PANews
In today's global financial landscape, the precarious old Babel Tower of the traditional payment system is facing fierce assaults from new forces.
On March 10th, Circle's stock price broke through $110, doubling from its low point earlier in the year. Behind this stock rebound lies a fundamental revaluation by capital markets of the business model of "stablecoin issuance."
From the fluctuating stock prices on the NYSE, to the trillions of dollars flowing on-chain, down to the micro-payments circulating between AI Agents—while people are still complaining about a lack of innovation in cryptocurrencies and chasing the AI hype, Circle has quietly and precisely positioned itself at the intersection of settlement network hegemony and Agent monetary sovereignty.
Behind the Doubled Stock Price: Geopolitical Crisis Becomes a Catalyst
In less than nine months, Circle underwent its rite of passage into the mainstream capital markets with an IPO and the trial by fire of a "phoenix-like rebirth" in its stock price.
In the initial speculative frenzy after its listing, Circle, as the first stablecoin stock, surged rapidly from its IPO price of $31 to a high of $260, only to subsequently decline to a low around $50. After this period of growing pains, Circle's stock price has once again broken through aggressively, surpassing the $110 mark.
Circle is demonstrating a qualitative shift from "speculative growth" to "performance-driven growth." The financial report released in February was the turning point. Circle's total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached a massive $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 alone, its revenue hit $770 million, a 77% year-on-year increase, far exceeding market expectations.
One detail in the earnings report is particularly noteworthy: the net loss of $70 million for FY2025 was primarily affected by a $424 million stock-based compensation expense related to the IPO.
Excluding this one-time non-cash item, Circle's profitability improves dramatically. A Q4 net profit of $133 million represents its true underlying performance, showing significant year-on-year growth.
Circle is exhibiting the classic operational leverage effect of fintech giant: the larger the circulation scale, the lower the marginal cost, and the richer the profits.
Complex global geopolitical games have also unexpectedly benefited stablecoin issuers. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, Brent crude prices have risen about 15% in a week. This return of inflation expectations further reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts, and maintaining high interest rates provides a more profitable environment for Circle, whose main income derives from interest on government bonds.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev believes that inflationary pressures from soaring oil prices will lead the Fed to delay rate cuts. Data from CME FedWatch shows that the market's prediction for the probability of "no rate cut" in 2026 has risen from 79.9% a month ago to 97.3%.
For ordinary companies, high interest rates mean higher financing costs, but for Circle, high interest rates mean higher returns on reserves. As long as rates remain high, Circle's interest spread income will remain at a considerable level.
Currently, the circulating supply of USDC has reached $753 billion, a quarterly growth of 72%. Even slight fluctuations in the interest spread can have a huge leveraged effect on Circle's net profit.
This "Higher for Longer" interest rate environment actually boosts Circle's valuation multiples more than its short-term revenue fluctuations.
It is worth mentioning that the recent wave of gains also essentially includes recognition of Circle's "settlement technology premium." USDC's on-chain transaction volume surged to $11.9 trillion in Q4 of last year, a year-on-year increase of 247%.
Therefore, besides being an "asset management institution that profits from interest spreads," Circle is also a "settlement technology network" that settles over $10 trillion in transactions per quarter—enough to threaten traditional payment giants.
Of course, the capital market's attitude is not without reservations. Even with the strong stock performance, the collective sell-off of over $47 million by Circle's executives in the past 90 days casts a shadow, affecting investor sentiment to some extent.
USDC Monthly Transfer Volume Overtakes USDT, A Shift in Power
February witnessed a pivotal overtaking moment in the stablecoin race. Data from Allium shows that the total monthly transfer volume for the market reached $1.8 trillion, setting a new all-time high record.
Behind this figure, the shift in power regarding "capital flow speed" is more telling than mere market cap growth.
Although USDT still dominates with a market cap of $1.84 trillion, USDC achieved an overtaking in terms of capital flow velocity. Of the total transfer volume in February, USDC processed approximately $1.26 trillion, accounting for nearly 70%. The speed of capital flow determines who is the truly circulating lifeblood.
From a monetary nature perspective, USDT is increasingly approximating a store of value, primarily sitting dormant in margin accounts on centralized exchanges; while USDC is evolving into a medium of exchange, galloping ahead in scenarios like institutional settlement, prediction markets, and trade payments.
Circle's explosive growth in February was primarily driven by its strategic ecosystem positioning.
Deep integration with Visa was a catalyst. By introducing USDC settlement between acquirers and issuers, the traditional payment process bypasses the complex correspondent banking system, enabling 24/7 settlement. This means that even on weekends when banks are closed, acquiring funds for multinational corporations can be settled on-chain in the form of USDC, significantly improving capital efficiency.
The phenomenal rise of Polymarket provided demand-side validation in a native crypto scenario. As the primary settlement currency, USDC plays the role of "universal currency" in betting on the outcomes of major global events, significantly increasing its turnover rate.
Furthermore, Circle's penetration into emerging markets like Latin America and Africa is beginning to show results. Local businesses are increasingly using USDC as a tool for hedging against local currency depreciation and for cross-border trade settlement. In these regions, stablecoins are no longer speculative instruments but a necessity for survival.
Eliminating Micro-payment Pain Points, USDC Aims to Become the "Agent Financial Primitive"
If the $1.8 trillion monthly transaction volume marks humanity's acceptance of stablecoins, then the 140 million AI Agent payments signal the arrival of the "Agent Finance" era.
Over the past nine months, over 400,000 AI Agents with purchasing power have shown extremely high payment engagement, and 98.6% of these transactions chose USDC.
Why USDC?
Data cited by Circle's Global Head of Markets, Peter Schroeder, shows that the average AI Agent payment transaction is a mere $0.31. This tiny amount reveals the fundamental pain point of the Agent economy: micro-payments.
When executing tasks, AI agents need to pay for API call fees, computing power rental fees, data collection fees, and other costs. Within the traditional banking or credit card system, the fee for processing a $0.31 transfer could easily exceed the transaction itself. This high cost structure makes it difficult for Agents to make payments through traditional channels.
However, the economic calculation is just the surface; the deeper reason Agents choose USDC is the technical components provided by Circle.
The programmable suite provided by Circle allows developers to embed wallet management logic directly into AI code. Through Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers, developers can enable AIs like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf to directly generate scripts that call USDC for payments. This developer ease-of-use also makes USDC the default choice for Agent payments.
The Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) solves the last-mile problem. Agents often operate on low-cost, high-throughput L2s or high-performance blockchains like Base or Solana. In these networks, USDC transfer fees are less than a cent and can be completed in seconds. CCTP enables seamless migration of liquidity across different chains, which is particularly important for AI Agents that need to frequently call resources across chains.
Circle is crossing its "golden cross." Fundamentals have improved valuation multiples, ecosystem positioning drives growth expectations, and AI Agent payments open up blue ocean opportunities.
In a world full of uncertainty, the best business is to become the infrastructure of certainty. Circle is positioned at the confluence of settlement network hegemony and Agent monetary sovereignty, printing the first legitimate banknote for the coming AI civilization. The雏形 (prototype) of its "central bank for the digital economy era" is already faintly visible.
