Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Dragonfly Partner: Most Agents Will Not Conduct Autonomous Transactions, How Will Crypto Payments Win?

Dragonfly partner Robbie Petersen argues that the prevailing narrative about AI agents driving massive adoption of crypto payments is flawed. He contends that most agents—whether enterprise or consumer-facing—will not engage in autonomous transactions. Enterprise agents, which will constitute the majority of agent deployments, are an evolution of SaaS and will operate within closed organizational structures. They automate internal tasks (e.g., sales, accounting, legal review) without spending autonomously. Costs for API calls or data are abstracted into bulk, pre-negotiated invoices from platform providers, not paid per transaction. Consumer agents will act more as research assistants than independent economic actors. While they will excel at coordination and discovery (e.g., finding travel options), humans will retain final decision-making and payment authorization for all but the most repetitive purchases due to the qualitative, situational nature of consumer choice. Petersen identifies a narrow third category where crypto could win: permissionless, bottom-up agents (e.g., those inspired by OpenClaw) that operate truly autonomously and require high-frequency, granular payments. For these, blockchain's key advantage is not just technical efficiency but its open, permissionless nature, allowing experimental development without regulatory hurdles. However, he concludes that the larger bottleneck to a full autonomous agent economy is not payment infrastructure but human-centric legal, regulatory, and social frameworks.

marsbit03/24 05:02

Dragonfly Partner: Most Agents Will Not Conduct Autonomous Transactions, How Will Crypto Payments Win?

marsbit03/24 05:02

The Last Time I'll Talk About Backpack, and Also Discussing My Airdrop Farming Principles

The author outlines two primary approaches to airdrop farming (referred to as "撸毛"): a labor-intensive" method of mass participation in many projects, and their own "sniper" method. The sniper approach relies on a rigorous four-point checklist to filter projects and avoid "industrial garbage." The checklist evaluates: 1. **Team (People):** Founders must be intelligent, have strong execution skills, and be genuinely well-intentioned. This is assessed through their social media content and, if possible, personal interactions. 2. **Product (Product-Market Fit):** The product must have a clear market fit, be delivered competently, and the team must show a responsible attitude towards its quality, avoiding releases full of basic errors. 3. **Narrative (Story):** The project should operate in a promising, unproven narrative within Web3 that also aligns with major investment trends in Web2 (e.g., AI). 4. **Timing & Cost (Market Conditions):** Avoid participating when market sentiment is overly FOMO-driven and participation costs are high. If an opportunity causes hesitation, it's best to skip it, as overcrowded airdrops yield minimal or negative returns. Applying this framework, the author explains why they avoided heavily farming the Backpack exchange airdrop: * **Narrative:** They are skeptical of the "compliant CEX" narrative, questioning its unique selling point against giants like Binance and OKX. * **Product:** They criticize Backpack's frequent technical failures, rollbacks, and what they perceive as a lack of product development rigor, comparing it unfavorably to competitors like Hyperliquid. * **Timing & Cost:** The participation cost was high compared to zero-fee alternatives available at the time. The author concludes that Backpack lacks the technical and operational prowess of a serious exchange and views its token more as a "VC-backed meme coin" for secondary market speculation rather than a worthwhile airdrop target.

比推03/23 20:38

The Last Time I'll Talk About Backpack, and Also Discussing My Airdrop Farming Principles

比推03/23 20:38

In-Depth Analysis of Circle: A Stablecoin Empire Held Hostage by Distribution and Interest Rates

Circle's 2025 fiscal year results reinforce its identity as a reserve-income business, not a diversified software platform. Total revenue reached $2.747 billion, with $2.637 billion coming from reserve income generated by its stablecoins, primarily USDC. Despite revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $70 million, driven by high operating expenses and significant distribution costs. USDC circulation grew to $79.2 billion by March 2026, but profitability remains tightly linked to interest rates and distribution agreements, especially with Coinbase, which received over 50% of gross reserve revenue in some cases. While Circle is expanding into payment networks (CPN) and infrastructure services, these initiatives contributed only $110 million in non-reserve income in FY2025. The company’s financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in short-term interest rates and USDC adoption. Its competitive position relies on regulatory compliance and institutional trust, but it faces challenges from Tether’s scale and emerging rivals like PayPal’s PYUSD and European bank-backed stablecoins. Circle’s valuation and near-term economics continue to be dominated by reserve income dynamics rather than platform diversification.

比推03/23 18:32

In-Depth Analysis of Circle: A Stablecoin Empire Held Hostage by Distribution and Interest Rates

比推03/23 18:32

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Gold's recent pullback has drawn superficial comparisons to the 1979 cycle, but the underlying global dynamics have fundamentally shifted. In 1979, gold fell due to extreme Fed rate hikes under Volcker and a renewed belief in U.S. credit stability, which attracted capital back to dollar assets. Today, the situation is inverted. The U.S. faces massive debt, uncontrolled deficits, and a financial system hypersensitive to interest rates. The critical change is the structural challenge to the dollar-centric system itself, particularly the petrodollar cycle. The ongoing Middle East conflict is not an isolated event but a self-reinforcing crisis that disrupts energy flows, elevates costs, and strains fiscal capacities—undermining the dollar’s role in global energy trade. This suggests that the recent gold sell-off is a short-term profit-taking move after a strong rally, rather than a loss of long-term value. The broader narrative is one of a deteriorating monetary order: the U.S. can no longer easily suppress inflation with high rates or assert global dominance as before. As the world reassesses the entire credit system, gold is poised to assume a new role as a hedge against systemic fragility.

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Bitcoin: As supply shock meets demand gap, who drives the market now?

Bitcoin miner-to-exchange flows surged above 8,000 BTC in late January due to operational disruptions and liquidity constraints, but have since declined to around 4,300 BTC, reducing sell-side pressure. Despite this, the Coinbase Premium remains negative at -0.02, indicating weak U.S. institutional demand. Price stability near $68,600 is largely driven by offshore liquidity and derivatives markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped significantly from 1,200 EH/s to 800 EH/s, reflecting reduced mining activity and a shift of resources toward AI compute for higher returns. Miners sold over 15,000 BTC to fund this transition, adding short-term supply pressure. The market now depends heavily on external demand, making it vulnerable to shifts in global liquidity.

ambcrypto03/23 10:10

Bitcoin: As supply shock meets demand gap, who drives the market now?

ambcrypto03/23 10:10

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

The article "The Self-Defeating Nature of Startup Dogma: The More You Know, The Sooner You Fail" argues that popular startup methodologies—such as Lean Startup, Customer Development, and the Business Model Canvas—have not improved startup survival rates over the past 30 years, based on U.S. government data. The core paradox is that once a methodology becomes widely adopted, it loses its competitive advantage as all founders converge on the same strategies, leading to homogeneity and increased failure rates in competitive markets. The author compares this to the Red Queen effect in evolutionary biology, where continuous adaptation is necessary just to maintain position. Despite the intuitive appeal and scientific claims of these frameworks, empirical data shows no improvement in the survival rates of either general U.S. businesses or venture-backed startups. In fact, the success rate for seed-funded startups securing subsequent funding has declined. The article explores three possible explanations: the theories might be fundamentally flawed; they might be too obvious to require formalization; or they might be self-defeating when universally applied. The author calls for a truly scientific approach to entrepreneurship, one that embraces experimentation, paradigm development, and differentiation rather than dogma. The conclusion is that to succeed, founders must often do the opposite of what popular playbooks advise.

marsbit03/23 08:13

The Self-Destruction of the Startup Bible: The More You Know, the Sooner You Fail

marsbit03/23 08:13

Thousands of people around the world are selling their identities to train AI, but at what cost?

A global investigation reveals a growing gray market where thousands of people worldwide are selling their biometric data—voices, faces, call logs, and daily videos—to train AI models for small payments. Examples include individuals in South Africa, India, and the U.S. earning modest sums through apps like Kled AI, Silencio, and Neon Mobile. While this provides crucial income, especially in economically strained regions, it raises serious concerns about privacy, exploitation, and long-term risks. Contributors often grant broad, irreversible rights to their data, potentially exposing them to deepfakes, identity theft, and unauthorized commercial use. Experts warn that this practice is unstable, offers no career progression, and primarily benefits tech companies in wealthier nations, leaving workers vulnerable with little recourse. Cases like an actor discovering his AI likeness promoting medical products without consent highlight the ethical and personal consequences of this emerging data-for-cash economy.

marsbit03/23 05:56

Thousands of people around the world are selling their identities to train AI, but at what cost?

marsbit03/23 05:56

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

Goldman Sachs warns that markets have only priced in the "inflation shock" from the Iran conflict but have completely ignored the severe risk of a global "recession." The key bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flow has dropped 97% to just 600,000 barrels per day. Military convoys can restore at most 20% of normal oil flow, and the conflict is likely to persist as Iran views it as an existential struggle. Oil prices could surpass 2008 highs if disruptions last 60 days, with Brent potentially reaching $110/bbl in an extreme scenario. Every 10 oil price increase drags global GDP down by 0.1% and raises inflation by 0.2pp. A 60-day disruption could reduce global GDP by 0.9% and increase inflation by 1.7%. Markets remain overly optimistic about a quick resolution. If prolonged, the focus will shift from inflation to recession: equities would sell off, cyclical assets like copper and the AUD would fall, front-end yields would reverse their hawkish repricing, and the JPY would emerge as the ultimate safe-haven currency. The crisis hinges on Hormuz reopening—not military outcomes—and the timeline is likely longer than priced in.

marsbit03/23 02:48

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

marsbit03/23 02:48

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbit03/23 02:20

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

marsbit03/23 02:20

Inside Ethereum network’s efforts to become settlement layer for all AI activities

Etherean is solidifying its position as the dominant DeFi hub, evidenced by massive and growing stablecoin volumes, including a $7 billion monthly increase. A strategic shift is underway with USDC supply growing 10% to over $52 billion, partly driven by Circle's AI-focused Nanopayments that enable near-free transactions. This growth, combined with entities like BitMine making massive ETH stakes and strategic investments in AI-linked assets, positions Ethereum to potentially become the primary settlement layer for the emerging AI-driven economy.

ambcrypto03/22 04:01

Inside Ethereum network’s efforts to become settlement layer for all AI activities