Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Eight-Year Industry Retrospective: The Crypto Revolution Has Already Occurred, Just Not as Envisioned

Eight Years in Crypto: A Different Revolution Unfolds After eight years across four crypto companies, my initial vision of decentralized apps and currencies replacing traditional systems largely failed to materialize. Instead, the industry has forged a distinct, perhaps more significant, path centered on rebuilding the global financial system from the ground up. My journey began in the 2017 ICO frenzy, a bubble reminiscent of the dot-com era, where fundraising outpaced usable technology. The subsequent crash led to a quiet rebuilding phase focused on financial primitives. From the ashes emerged stablecoins and DeFi, which gained explosive traction during the 2020 pandemic and the "DeFi Summer" of yield farming and speculative games. This was followed by the 2021 NFT mania, another cycle of exuberance. The 2022 crash was crypto's "Lehman Moment," triggered by the collapse of Terra's UST, hedge funds like Three Arrows Capital, and ultimately FTX, which misused customer funds. The aftermath saw aggressive U.S. regulatory actions under the SEC, which paradoxically fueled the rise of "legal-safe" memecoins, turning parts of the ecosystem into a massive casino by 2024-2025. A pivotal shift occurred with the 2024 U.S. election. A perceived pro-crypto administration led to key legislation like the GENIUS Act, clear stablecoin rules, and institutional adoption. Stablecoins, now a strategic U.S. priority, process trillions in transaction volume, and asset tokenization is gaining Wall Street traction. Today's reality isn't the cypherpunk dream of replacing fiat but a pragmatic revolution: upgrading the dollar system for the internet age and creating a globally accessible, 24/7 financial infrastructure. The next convergence is with AI, where crypto wallets and stablecoins will enable autonomous AI agents to transact in the global economy. The industry's future lies not in颠覆ing traditional finance but in integrating with it, replacing outdated backend systems with blockchain while maintaining familiar frontends. The goal is a seamless, borderless financial system. While my predictions may prove as flawed as my 2017 article, I remain committed to building within this ongoing transformation.

marsbit05/08 15:27

Eight-Year Industry Retrospective: The Crypto Revolution Has Already Occurred, Just Not as Envisioned

marsbit05/08 15:27

Why Does the Term 'Year of AI Computing Power Realization' Have Pitfalls? —Understanding the Four Hurdles from Policy Signals to Actual Orders in One Article

This article critiques the phrase "The First Year of AI Computing Power Cashing In," arguing it oversimplifies a complex, multi-stage process. It proposes a "Four Gates" framework to assess the true commercialization of domestic AI computing power (like Huawei's Ascend chips): 1. **Policy Procurement:** Widely open in 2026. Significant government funding and large bulk orders from tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent exist. However, purchasing hardware is not the same as deploying it for real use. 2. **Real Deployment:** A crack has opened. The key evidence is DeepSeek V4, a top-tier AI model fully migrating from NVIDIA's CUDA to domestic computing platforms. This proves the capability for real, high-level tasks, but widespread adoption beyond leading tech firms is still nascent. 3. **Mature Software Ecosystem:** A narrow crack has opened. While frameworks like Huawei's CANN are progressing, they lag far behind NVIDIA's vast, established CUDA ecosystem in terms of supported models and developer ease-of-use. Building this middle-to-downstream developer environment is estimated to need 1-2 more years. 4. **Scalable Replication:** Essentially closed. This final gate, where thousands of mid-sized enterprises across various industries can easily adopt the technology without major migration costs, is not expected before 2027-2028. The core risk is conflating these stages. While 2026 marks a real turning point in policy-driven procurement and proving technical viability (Gates 1 & 2), the phrase "cashing in" is premature for the full industry. True, large-scale value realization depends on the later, slower-to-open gates of software maturity and scalable replication to the broader market. DeepSeek V4's shift is identified as the most critical 2026 signal, changing the narrative from "can it work?" to "when will supply meet demand?"

marsbit05/08 11:34

Why Does the Term 'Year of AI Computing Power Realization' Have Pitfalls? —Understanding the Four Hurdles from Policy Signals to Actual Orders in One Article

marsbit05/08 11:34

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

The article argues that the history of the U.S. stock market is deeply intertwined with American military conflicts. While current Middle East tensions raise economic concerns, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue hitting new highs. Historical analysis shows U.S. wars, from the Spanish-American War to recent conflicts in the Middle East, have often coincided with market gains, as seen in the Dow Jones's performance during these periods. The U.S. transitioned from a war participant to an initiator, with most conflicts post-Vietnam being short, focused on oil, and achieving strategic goals. The market's reaction to war has evolved. Pre-1950s, investor sentiment directly drove swings based on battle outcomes. From the Korean War onward, the focus shifted to economic channels like inflation, oil prices, and fiscal policy. For instance, during the Gulf War, stock movements inversely correlated with oil price swings. The primary beneficiary industries have also changed: coal dominated WWII, oil surged during Korea and Vietnam, but by the Gulf War, the indirect economic impact made consumer staples outperform. Overall, as the U.S. economy grew, the direct market impact of individual wars diminished, giving way to broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates and deficits as the key drivers.

marsbit05/08 08:29

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

marsbit05/08 08:29

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

The article "BIT Research: After Gold's Sharp Decline, Why Could It Reach $5,000 Faster?" presents a bullish outlook for gold despite recent price drops. It argues that the core bullish structure remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal. The primary drivers are expected to be a re-pricing of the US dollar and the interest rate path. The market currently prices in a potential 2026 rate hike, yet simultaneously expects a more dovish stance from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, creating a contradiction. A correction of these expectations could weaken the dollar and lower real rates, fueling gold's ascent. Additionally, the expanding US national debt provides long-term structural support. Technically, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows, suggesting underlying strength. Quantitative and trend models have turned bullish, with historical data from similar signals pointing to an average ~12.8% gain over two months, projecting a target near $5,306. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting, the July BRICS summit, and the September US fiscal cliff. In summary, the convergence of a potential dollar downturn, interest rate re-pricing, supportive technicals, and upcoming macro events could propel gold into a new phase of accelerated growth, with $5,300 as a near-term target.

marsbit05/08 07:39

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

marsbit05/08 07:39

Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

Berkshire and SoftBank: A Tale of Two Extremes The article presents a speculative future (set in 2026) contrasting the investment philosophies and potential fates of Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank Group. Under new CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire sits on a massive cash pile of nearly $400 billion, built by selling assets like Apple stock over many quarters. Buffett and now Abel deem the market overvalued and refuse to invest, leading to significant underperformance. The "disease" of too much cash poses an existential threat to Berkshire's identity as a capital allocator, potentially forcing a future breakup or special dividend if the bull market persists. Its "death" would be a slow, dignified fading of its legendary investment narrative. In stark contrast, SoftBank's Masayoshi Son is all-in on a high-stakes gamble. To fund a colossal $64.6 billion (and growing) investment in OpenAI, SoftBank has aggressively leveraged itself. It has sold core holdings like Nvidia, T-Mobile, and Alibaba, taken on over $100 billion in parent-level debt, and secured a record $40 billion bridge loan. The survival strategy hinges on a successful OpenAI IPO and the high valuation of its Arm holdings. However, this creates multiple interconnected risks: an OpenAI IPO delay, a correction in Arm's lofty valuation, or a credit market freeze. Any of these could trigger a liquidity crisis. SoftBank's potential "death" would be swift and dramatic. The core thesis is that in this speculative market, one extreme strategy—Berkshire's paralyzing caution or SoftBank's all-or-nothing leverage—will likely prove unsustainable. One may lose its soul, the other may face financial rupture.

链捕手05/08 06:14

Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

链捕手05/08 06:14

Coinbase is More Than Just a Crypto Stock; AI Payments Are Reshaping Its Valuation

Coinbase is often valued as a cyclical crypto brokerage tied to Bitcoin prices. However, this view overlooks its strategic position in two transformative trends: the rise of stablecoins and AI agent commerce. Key data shows that 92.8% of real AI agent payments occur on Coinbase's Base L2, with 99.8% settled in USDC, which Coinbase co-creates and distributes with a favorable revenue-sharing agreement with Circle. Analysts project stablecoin supply could reach $3 trillion by 2030, and AI agent commerce could hit $3-5 trillion. Coinbase is positioned to capture significant value from both. Through its four-layer stack—USDC (settlement asset), Base (settlement layer), CDP/AgentKit (developer infrastructure), and Agentic.Market (discovery layer)—Coinbase is becoming the foundational infrastructure for AI-native finance. The company's revenue from stablecoin reserves and AI agent payments could become substantial, diversifying it beyond exchange fees. The article argues this justifies a higher, infrastructure-like valuation, with a bull case for Coinbase becoming a $300 billion company by 2031.

marsbit05/08 05:22

Coinbase is More Than Just a Crypto Stock; AI Payments Are Reshaping Its Valuation

marsbit05/08 05:22

Ray Dalio's Latest Interview: Can the U.S. Still Escape the Cycle of Decline?

In a comprehensive interview, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, analyzes whether the US can escape its historical "great cycle" of decline. He argues the nation faces a confluence of structural pressures, not a single crisis. Key points include: 1. **The Debt Cycle:** Unsustainable fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-income ratios are eroding national capacity, constraining spending on defense, welfare, and global commitments. 2. **Internal Political & Social Conflict:** Deep wealth gaps and value differences fuel intense political polarization. Addressing deficits becomes a zero-sum political battle over "who pays and who benefits," making consensus nearly impossible. 3. **Erosion of the World Order:** The post-1945 US-led, rules-based international system is breaking down, reverting to a state of great-power competition and conflict where raw power, not multilateral rules, resolves disputes. 4. **Currency & Safe Assets:** While the Chinese yuan may gain use as a medium of exchange, Dalio doubts it will become a primary global store of wealth. In an era of fiat currency debasement, assets like gold are regaining prominence as safe havens. 5. **AI's Dual Role:** Artificial Intelligence could boost productivity and help manage debt, but it also risks exacerbating wealth inequality, job displacement, and geopolitical tensions. Dalio concludes the US is in a period of increasing disorder, with debt, domestic strife, and international realignments converging. The critical factors for national recovery are foundational: improving education and civic素养, fostering social cohesion and productivity, and avoiding war—both civil and international. The path forward depends less on markets and more on these fundamental societal choices.

marsbit05/08 04:32

Ray Dalio's Latest Interview: Can the U.S. Still Escape the Cycle of Decline?

marsbit05/08 04:32

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

"Vertical Integration Capital Aggregators: How Web3 Builds Unbreachable Moats" explores how leading Web3 protocols create competitive advantages by vertically integrating multiple ecosystem components. Unlike Web2 aggregators that focus on user demand or supplier commoditization, successful Web3 entities like Hyperliquid aggregate capital, liquidity, users, and distribution into a unified financial ecosystem. This integration allows for efficient capital deployment—Hyperliquid generates $0.30 in fees per $1 of TVL annually, compared to Aave's $0.05—while creating a defensible moat that is difficult to replicate across six simultaneous fronts. However, this model comes with risks: DeFi loses $0.50 to hacks for every $1 earned, pushing protocols toward partial centralization and closed systems for security and scalability. The token serves as a shared incentive layer, aligning stakeholders and driving value through mechanisms like buybacks. The article concludes that vertical integration, not capital itself, is the true moat, and that the industry is evolving toward pragmatic, partially centralized models to ensure economic growth and sustainability.

marsbit04/27 01:16

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

marsbit04/27 01:16

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

The article explores the intense competition between two leading Chinese AI companies, DeepSeek and Kimi (Moon Dark Side), and the mounting pressure on Yang Zhilin, the founder of Kimi. While DeepSeek re-emerged after 15 months of silence with its powerful V4 model—boasting 1.6 trillion parameters and low-cost, long-context capabilities—Kimi has been focusing on long-context processing and multi-agent systems with its K2.6 model. Yang faces a threefold challenge: technological rivalry, commercialization pressure, and investor expectations. Despite Kimi’s high valuation (reaching $18 billion), its revenue heavily relies on a single product with low paid conversion rates, while DeepSeek’s strategic silence and open-source influence have strengthened its market position and valuation prospects, now targeting over $20 billion. Both companies reflect broader trends in China’s AI ecosystem: Kimi aims for global influence through open-source contributions and agent-based advancements, while DeepSeek prioritizes foundational innovation and hardware independence, notably shifting to Huawei’s chips. Their competition is seen as vital for China’s AI progress, with the gap between top Chinese and U.S. models narrowing to just 2.7% on the Elo rating scale. Ultimately, the article argues that this rivalry, though anxiety-inducing for leaders like Zhilin, is essential for driving innovation and solidifying China’s role in the global AI landscape.

marsbit04/26 11:25

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

marsbit04/26 11:25

Amidst the Volatility in the Crypto Market, Who is Buying Against the Trend?

"In a volatile crypto market downturn of Q1 2026, institutional players demonstrated divergent strategies. While Bitcoin fell over 25% and Ethereum dropped 35%, key institutions accumulated: corporate treasuries like Strategy (MicroStrategy) added over $10 billion in BTC, sovereign wealth funds like Mubadala increased IBIT holdings by 46%, and major banks launched crypto services and ETFs. Notably, 26 new crypto ETFs were filed or launched under streamlined SEC rules, including bank-led products from Morgan Stanley and BlackRock’s staking ETH ETF. VC funding saw concentration: total investment reached ~$5 billion, but deal count plummeted 49%. Three mega-deals—BVNK ($1.8B), Kalshi ($1B), and Polymarket ($600M)—accounted for half the quarter’s funding. Investment shifted from DeFi/NFTs to payments, prediction markets, and regulated CeFi infrastructure. Selling pressure came from hedge funds (e.g., Brevan Howard cut IBIT by 85%) and Bitcoin miners liquidating holdings. The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve saw zero additions, highlighting that real buying came from corporations and sovereign funds, not governments. The institutional crypto landscape is bifurcating: long-term holders accumulate while short-term traders exit, signaling a foundation for the next cycle."

marsbit04/26 09:38

Amidst the Volatility in the Crypto Market, Who is Buying Against the Trend?