Cardano’s 10% hike – Will ADA’s price recovery extend into 2026?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-29Last updated on 2025-12-29

Abstract

Cardano (ADA) has declined to the $0.32–$0.36 support level, erasing all gains from the 2024 U.S. election rally. However, recent technical indicators suggest a potential reversal. A bullish divergence in the daily RSI and a MACD golden cross coincided with a 10% post-Christmas rally. If the support holds, the next targets are the 50-day MA at $0.42 and the former 2025 support at $0.50. Liquidation heatmaps indicate potential upward movement toward $0.39 and $0.42. With most holders at a loss, selling pressure is low, offering a possible buying opportunity. A break below $0.32, however, could push ADA down to $0.24.

Within just a year, Cardano [ADA] has erased all of its +300% gains made during the 2024 U.S election rally. The late 2025 market rout dragged the altcoin back to the $0.32-$0.36 support – A level that triggered the 2024 run.

Can ADA bulls pull another surprise run from the level again?

Is ADA’s bottom in?

Since mid-December, ADA’s price action has demonstrated resilience while flashing signs of a potential reversal based on technical indicators.

As ADA’s price printed new lows in November and December, the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed higher lows, signaling a bullish divergence.

Additionally, it flashed a MACD golden cross, with the same coinciding with the post-Christmas 10% rally. In fact, the altcoin climbed from $0.34 to $0.37 – A 10% upswing that could extend if the support level is defended.

Taken together, the indicators revealed that the uptrend momentum could extend itself. However, the real near-term test for bulls will be reclaiming the 50-day Moving Average (MA, white) at $0.42.

If reclaimed, the next upside target will be the former 2025 support of $0.50.

The 1-month liquidation heatmap also supported the aforementioned thesis. There were upside liquidity pools at $0.39 and $0.42, aligning with the 50-day MA. On the lower side, leveraged longs were at $0.34, marking out these levels as potential price magnets in the near term.

Is it time to buy ADA?

Another bullish sign for long-term investors or holders was the fear and distress that 3-month holders and those who held the token for over a year experienced, as indicated by the MVRV ratio.

For example, 3-month holders (MVRV Ratio 90D) had a 25% decline, while annual holders incurred unrealized losses of 38%.

Put differently, they were underwater, so they may hold on until they break even or turn a little profit before offloading their bags.

As such, with most holders now holding the token at a loss, there is little selling pressure at press time levels. That would offer a buying opportunity.

However, a break below the $0.32-$0.36 support level would invalidate the recovery thesis and likely pull ADA lower to the 2023 low of $0.24.

Final Thoughts

  • ADA dropped to a support level that triggered 2024’s rally, with technical indicators flashing reversal signals.
  • Valuation metrics and liquidation levels also indicated potential recovery, but a decline below $0.32 would dent bullish hopes.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

Related Questions

QWhat key support level did ADA's price return to in late 2025, and why is this level significant?

AADA's price returned to the $0.32-$0.36 support level in late 2025. This level is significant because it was the same support that triggered the major price rally in 2024.

QWhat two technical indicators suggested a potential bullish reversal for ADA in mid-December?

AThe two technical indicators were a bullish divergence on the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) and a MACD golden cross, which coincided with a 10% price rally after Christmas.

QAccording to the article, what is the crucial near-term resistance level that ADA needs to reclaim to extend its recovery?

AThe crucial near-term resistance level for ADA is the 50-day Moving Average (MA) at $0.42. Reclaiming this level is identified as a key test for the bulls.

QHow does the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicate a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors?

AThe MVRV ratio shows that most holders (3-month and 1-year) are currently at significant unrealized losses (25% and 38% respectively). This suggests there is little selling pressure at current levels, as these holders are likely to wait until they break even, creating a potential buying opportunity.

QWhat price level would invalidate the bullish recovery thesis for ADA, according to the analysis?

AA break below the $0.32-$0.36 support level would invalidate the recovery thesis. Such a break could potentially pull the price down to the 2023 low of $0.24.

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