Broke the Cycle. How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Years on Christmas

RBK-cryptoPublished on 2025-12-25Last updated on 2025-12-25

Abstract

The article "Прервал цикличность. Как менялась цена биткоина за 10 лет в Рождество" (Breaking the Cycle: How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Christmases) analyzes the price of Bitcoin on December 25th for each year from 2015 to 2025. The key finding is that 2025 broke a recent pattern. After nine years where a price drop only occurred the year after three consecutive years of growth, Bitcoin's price in 2025 fell by 11% to $87,600 from the previous Christmas ($98,700 in 2024). This decline is attributed to macroeconomic shocks and large-scale liquidation events in October, making it only the third year in the dataset with a year-over-year Christmas decline. The summary of each year's price and key drivers is as follows: * **2015:** $456 - Consolidation phase. * **2016:** $894 (+96%) - Growth ahead of the halving. * **2017:** $14,300 (+1500%) - Peak of retail frenzy. * **2018:** $4,000 (-72%) - Deep correction after the bubble. * **2019:** $7,300 (+81%) - Initial recovery. * **2020:** $23,800 (+227%) - New institutional cycle begins. * **2021:** $50,900 (+114%) - New all-time high. * **2022:** $16,800 (-67%) - "Crypto winter" with major collapses. * **2023:** $43,000 (+155%) - Recovery on ETF approval hopes. * **2024:** $98,700 (+130%) - Bull run continues post-ETF launch. * **2025:** $87,600 (-11%) - Correction due to macroeconomics. The article concludes that while Bitcoin's growth cycles reach new levels with greater institutional adoption, the 2025 ...

"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

Almost every Bitcoin growth cycle occurs at a qualitatively new level, where not only capitalization grows but also institutional and regulatory recognition worldwide. And the sharp drop in the price of the main cryptocurrency in 2025 is another reminder that the crypto market, while maturing, does not cease to be volatile and sensitive to global risks.

On Catholic Christmas Day, December 25th, many members of the crypto community recall what the market was like for the main cryptocurrency in previous years. The service Coingecko published Bitcoin prices for the past ten years based on data for each December 25th.

The year 2025 was notable for breaking the pattern of the last nine years, where a decline occurred in the year following three consecutive years of price growth.

2015: $456

A period of consolidation and accumulation after the completion of the previous market cycle.

2016: $894

A 96% increase amid expectations of the upcoming halving (a reduction in Bitcoin's emission rate approximately every four years) and the formation of an upward trend.

2017: $14.3K

The peak of retail frenzy with a 1500% increase. Bitcoin becomes a phenomenon in financial markets.

2018: $4.0K

A phase of deep correction with a 72% drop after the speculative bubble of the previous year. The height of the bear market.

2019: $7.3K

A stage of Bitcoin price recovery with positive dynamics of 81%, the initial phase of exiting the bear market.

2020: $23.8K

The beginning of a new institutional cycle against the backdrop of unprecedented money printing by world central banks during the COVID pandemic. The annual increase was 227%.

2021: $50.9K

Reaching a new all-time high with a 114% increase, fueled by the activity of institutional investors.

2022: $16.8K

A period of crypto winter: a series of crises with the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) crypto project and the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange, as well as the tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, led to a 67% decline.

2023: $43.0K

A powerful recovery of 155%, driven by expectations of approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US.

2024: $98.7K

Continuation of the bull trend with a 130% increase after the successful launch of ETFs and significant inflow of institutional capital.

2025: $87.6K

An 11% correction as a result of macroeconomic shocks and large-scale liquidation events in October. 2025 became the third year in history when the Bitcoin price on December 25th decreased compared to the previous Christmas.

How the Base blockchain ecosystem works. Top 5 applications

AI outperformed humans in a crypto trading tournament. What were the results

"Capitulation" of miners called a bullish factor for Bitcoin. Why

Related Questions

QWhat was the main reason Bitcoin broke its cyclical pattern in 2025 according to the article?

AThe article states that 2025 broke the pattern of the previous nine years due to macroeconomic shocks and large-scale liquidation events in October, which led to an 11% price correction.

QWhich year saw the highest percentage increase in Bitcoin's price on Christmas Day, and what was the driver?

A2017 saw the highest percentage increase of 1500%, driven by a peak in retail frenzy, making Bitcoin a phenomenon in financial markets.

QWhat were the two major events cited as causes for the 'crypto winter' and price drop in 2022?

AThe two major events were the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) crypto project and the bankruptcy of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, combined with the tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

QWhat was the primary driver for Bitcoin's powerful 155% recovery in 2023?

AThe primary driver was the expectation of approval for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States.

QHow many times in history has the Bitcoin price decreased on December 25th compared to the previous Christmas, with 2025 being one of them?

A2025 was the third year in history where the Bitcoin price on December 25th was lower than the previous Christmas.

Related Reads

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

Key political opposition to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair has been removed after Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) withdrew his objection, clearing the way for a committee vote on April 29. Tillis had previously blocked the nomination due to a criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, which he viewed as a threat to Fed independence. The Justice Department has since dropped the investigation. Warsh, who has broad Republican support, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate in time for Powell’s term expiration on May 15. If confirmed, Warsh has signaled significant policy changes, including abolishing the "dot plot" of interest rate projections and reevaluating the Fed’s forward guidance framework. These changes could fundamentally alter the market’s pricing mechanisms for stocks, bonds, and currencies. Although the criminal case against Powell is closed, uncertainty remains as he retains his board seat until 2028. President Trump has not fully endorsed Powell, citing an ongoing review of Fed renovation spending. Warsh’s potential reforms target the communication tools developed post-2008, which have become foundational to global asset pricing.

marsbit5m ago

Key Lawmaker 'Relents', Wash's Biggest Obstacle to Assuming Fed Chair on May 15 Cleared

marsbit5m ago

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

The author, Alex Xu, explains his decision to significantly reduce his Bitcoin holdings (from full to ~30% of his portfolio) during the current bull cycle, citing a lowered long-term outlook for BTC's price appreciation in the next cycle. He outlines six key reasons for this reduced expectation: 1. **Diminished Growth Drivers:** The narrative of exponential user adoption has largely played out with institutional ETF adoption. The next major growth phase—adoption by sovereign national reserves or central banks—seems unlikely in the near future. 2. **Personal Opportunity Cost:** More attractive investment opportunities have emerged in other assets, such as undervalued companies. 3. **Industry-Wide Contraction:** The broader crypto industry is struggling, with most Web3 business models (SocialFi, GameFi, DePIN) failing. This overall萧条 (depression) reduces the fundamental demand and consensus for Bitcoin. 4. **Strain on Major Buyer:** MicroStrategy, a major corporate buyer of BTC, faces rising financing expenses for its debt, which could slow its purchasing rate and create significant marginal pressure on the market. 5. **Increased Competition from Gold:** The emergence of "tokenized gold" has closed the functional gap (portability, divisibility) between physical gold and Bitcoin, offering a strong competitor in the non-sovereign store-of-value space. 6. **Security Budget Concerns:** The block reward halving continues to exacerbate the long-standing issue of funding Bitcoin's network security, with new fee source explorations like Ordinals and L2s largely failing. The author's decision to hold a significant (though reduced) position reflects a cautious, not bearish, outlook. He remains open to increasing his exposure if the fundamental reasons for his skepticism change or if new positive catalysts emerge.

marsbit19m ago

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

marsbit19m ago

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

Prediction markets face a fundamental contradiction: they rely on insider trading to generate accurate prices, yet this same activity erodes public trust and threatens their survival. Recent scandals, such as a U.S. special forces member making $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information about a raid, highlight the severity of the issue. While platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi market themselves as venues where "everyone is an expert" and encourage informed trading, they also enforce policies against illegal insider trading. The core dilemma is that these markets depend on informed insiders for price efficiency but require uninformed retail participants to provide liquidity. If insider trading is too rampant, retail traders leave, perceiving the market as unfair. If restrictions are too strict, valuable information flow dries up, reducing the market’s predictive utility. The challenge is finding a balance that maintains both accuracy and perceived fairness—a task complicated by regulatory pressures and recurring scandals.

marsbit25m ago

Prediction Markets Cannot Exist Without Insider Trading, But Insider Trading Is Killing Them

marsbit25m ago

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran has announced a comprehensive plan to assert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint. The proposed measures include requiring all vessels to obtain Iranian permission for passage, imposing fees for security, environmental protection, and navigation management—preferably paid in Iranian rials—and absolutely banning Israeli ships. Vessels from countries deemed hostile by Iran’s top security bodies may also be barred. Analysts suggest Iran’s motives are multifaceted: increasing pressure on the U.S. and Israel by leveraging control over oil transit to influence global prices and inflation; creating a new revenue stream, potentially exceeding $7.7 billion annually, to counter Western sanctions and support postwar reconstruction; and using transit permissions as bargaining chips in future negotiations, notably with the U.S. However, the plan faces significant practical and diplomatic challenges. Enforcing comprehensive interception and fee collection in the busy waterway, patrolled by international military forces, would be difficult. The U.S. has already countering with a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to intercept any ship paying fees, potentially strangling Iran’s oil exports and fee revenue. Broad international opposition, led by European and Gulf states, and legal controversies further complicate implementation. The proposal may ultimately serve more as a negotiating tactic than a feasible policy, with its execution remaining highly uncertain.

marsbit1h ago

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit1h ago

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

"Vertical Integration Capital Aggregators: How Web3 Builds Unbreachable Moats" explores how leading Web3 protocols create competitive advantages by vertically integrating multiple ecosystem components. Unlike Web2 aggregators that focus on user demand or supplier commoditization, successful Web3 entities like Hyperliquid aggregate capital, liquidity, users, and distribution into a unified financial ecosystem. This integration allows for efficient capital deployment—Hyperliquid generates $0.30 in fees per $1 of TVL annually, compared to Aave's $0.05—while creating a defensible moat that is difficult to replicate across six simultaneous fronts. However, this model comes with risks: DeFi loses $0.50 to hacks for every $1 earned, pushing protocols toward partial centralization and closed systems for security and scalability. The token serves as a shared incentive layer, aligning stakeholders and driving value through mechanisms like buybacks. The article concludes that vertical integration, not capital itself, is the true moat, and that the industry is evolving toward pragmatic, partially centralized models to ensure economic growth and sustainability.

marsbit1h ago

Vertically Integrated Capital Aggregators: How Does Web3 Build an Impregnable Moat?

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of S (S) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow