Bitcoin slips as Trump raises tariffs to 15%, but recovery is still possible

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-22Last updated on 2026-02-22

Abstract

Bitcoin's price declined following former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an immediate 15% global tariff hike on February 21st. Although BTC briefly approached $68,000 around the time of the news, it soon retreated, along with Ethereum and broader altcoin markets. Analysts attribute the drop to a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting interest rate expectations, with crypto acting as a high-beta liquidity indicator. Market sentiment worsened, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to "extreme fear" levels. However, historical analysis suggests a potential recovery. Economist Timothy Peterson noted that in similar past conditions, Bitcoin traded higher 88% of the time ten months later, with average returns of 82%. He projects a long-term price target of around $122,000, indicating that the current downturn may be a temporary panic rather than a lasting decline.

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff move, the lights just turned off. Bitcoin [BTC] tried to stay calm but couldn’t.

What happened?

President Trump announced on the 21st of February that global tariffs would rise to 15% with immediate effect.

Bitcoin briefly pushed higher toward the $68K mark in the hours around the announcement, but the move didn’t last.

Ethereum [ETH] also turned lower, while TOTAL3 (which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) dipped about 0.29%. There’s weakness across the altcoin board.

About the same, Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, told AMBCrypto,

“Crypto is reacting like a high-beta liquidity proxy. Bitcoin slipping into the mid-$60Ks isn’t just low sentiment. It’s what happens when positioning meets a stronger dollar and less forgiving rates expectations.”

The tariff hike followed a court decision limiting Trump’s use of emergency powers, though he cited other trade laws to justify the increase.

Critics, including attorney Adam Cochran, argued those laws restricted how long and how widely such tariffs can be applied.

It’s not as bad as it looks

Sentiment has dropped, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to levels of “extreme fear” at press time. Investors are pulling back, expecting more downside.

Cai added,

“Markets are digesting a more hawkish read-through from the latest Federal Reserve minutes... Equities have softened and the bid has moved back toward cash-like instruments and short-duration treasuries.”

But one look at the numbers will tell you that these moments haven’t always lasted.

Economist Timothy Peterson recently noted in an X post that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is hopeful.

According to his analysis, which tracks performance since 2011, when at least half of the past two years were positive, Bitcoin went on to trade higher 10 months later about 88% of the time.

On average, returns during those periods reached as high as 82%.

Peterson believes that Bitcoin could climb significantly from current levels, potentially reaching around $122,000 over time. So, while fear is dominating the market right now, there may yet be light at the end of the tunnel.

Final Summary

  • Bitcoin price slipped after Trump’s 15% tariff shock, but BTC has risen 88% of the time in similar setups.
  • With Crypto Fear & Greed at 14, this dip could just be panic.

Related Questions

QWhat was the immediate impact of Trump's tariff announcement on Bitcoin's price?

ABitcoin briefly pushed higher toward the $68K mark around the announcement but the move didn't last, and it subsequently slipped into the mid-$60Ks.

QAccording to Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, how is the crypto market reacting to the recent economic events?

ACrypto is reacting like a high-beta liquidity proxy, with the price action being driven by a stronger dollar and less forgiving interest rates expectations meeting market positioning.

QWhat does the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicate about current market sentiment?

AThe Fear and Greed Index has fallen to levels of 'extreme fear', specifically a reading of 14, indicating that investors are pulling back and expecting more downside.

QWhat long-term price target for Bitcoin does economist Timothy Peterson suggest based on his analysis?

ABased on his historical analysis, Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin could climb significantly from current levels, potentially reaching around $122,000 over time.

QWhat historical statistic provides hope for a Bitcoin price recovery despite the current fear?

AHistorical analysis shows that when at least half of the past two years were positive, Bitcoin went on to trade higher 10 months later about 88% of the time, with average returns of 82%.

Related Reads

OpenAI's 'Blueprint for the Future': Making AI Beneficial for Every Person on the Planet

A new transformative technology emerges every few generations. OpenAI draws a parallel with the advent of electricity in the 1920s, which initially brought convenience but ultimately enabled unprecedented progress in medicine, engineering, and living standards by empowering people to create new possibilities. AI is poised to recreate this phenomenon. Its true significance lies not in the technology itself, but in what people can achieve with it—from understanding a medical bill or starting a business to aiding scientific discovery. OpenAI believes AI should be universally accessible, allowing everyone to use it according to their own needs. This future, however, is not guaranteed. While transformative tech can centralize power, OpenAI's philosophy is that AI must serve humanity, augmenting human capabilities and broadly distributing its benefits. The company's first commitment is to build AI for human service, aiming to empower the many rather than concentrate power in a few. Safety, alignment with human intent, and oversight are paramount. OpenAI is optimistic about AI's potential to expand human welfare but remains clear-eyed about risks. The goal is to help people achieve more, not to replace them. Full automation is not the desired future; human judgment, values, and direction will become even more critical. OpenAI outlines three core goals: 1. Build automated AI researchers to accelerate and increasingly automate the research process itself, maintaining close human collaboration. The internal projection is that by March 2028, a significant portion of their research will be conducted by AI systems working alongside human researchers. 2. Accelerate economic development by advancing science, boosting productivity, and fostering growth, while ensuring the fruits are widely shared. 3. Provide a personal AGI for everyone on Earth, allowing individuals to benefit from this transformative technology in their own way. The company is entering its third phase, moving from foundational AGI research (Phase 1) to product deployment and learning from real-world use (Phase 2). The current challenge is making advanced AI abundant, affordable, safe, practical, and usable for all individuals and organizations. OpenAI concludes that a widely distributed power structure leads to a more resilient, adaptable, and free society. A positive AI future should not be controlled by a handful of entities but built, benefited from, and owned by many. If realized correctly, AI can become a cornerstone for enhancing global productivity, creativity, scientific advancement, and economic opportunity, fulfilling the mission to ensure AGI benefits all of humanity.

marsbit51m ago

OpenAI's 'Blueprint for the Future': Making AI Beneficial for Every Person on the Planet

marsbit51m ago

Arthur Hayes' New Article: AI Bubble Nears Bursting, Crypto Market Faces Short-Term Pressure

In a new essay, Arthur Hayes argues that the AI market bubble is approaching a rupture, which will place significant short-term pressure on crypto assets. He identifies rising oil prices, a trio of massive tech IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI), and potential anti-AI political rhetoric from Trump as the three key catalysts for a correction. Hayes posits that the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will drive energy prices higher, increasing operational costs for data centers and squeezing AI company profits. Simultaneously, the market may struggle to absorb the upcoming wave of multi-trillion dollar tech IPOs. Furthermore, with high inflation hurting his election chances, Trump could pivot to attacking the AI sector with proposals for heavy taxation and regulation to win over voters, spooking the market. Hayes notes that nearly all new dollar liquidity since 2022 has flowed into the AI sector, leaving little for Bitcoin, explaining its recent underperformance. He believes an AI stock crash would trigger a broad risk-off sentiment and credit contraction, dragging down crypto in the near term. Consequently, his fund, Maelstrom, has sold all AI-related stocks and non-core cryptocurrencies, retaining only Bitcoin and Ethereum while building positions in traditional energy stocks. He anticipates Bitcoin will bottom and resume its bull run only after the AI bubble pops and a new monetary easing cycle begins.

marsbit54m ago

Arthur Hayes' New Article: AI Bubble Nears Bursting, Crypto Market Faces Short-Term Pressure

marsbit54m ago

Bitcoin Is Going According To Plan: Analyst Who Predicted $59,000 Reveals What’s Next

Crypto analyst Alex Mason views Bitcoin's recent crash to $59,000 as an expected and positive development, signaling the cryptocurrency is following a predicted trajectory. He explains the drop and subsequent recovery to $61,000 represent the final stage of the bear market, bringing it closer to a bottom. Mason forecasts a short-term recovery to around $65,000, which will then set the stage for a more significant decline. He predicts a major crash to $57,000, followed by a deeper correction into the $40,000s, with key support expected at $47,000. From this $47,000 low, Mason anticipates the start of a major bullish move that will propel Bitcoin's price back into six-figure territory. He sets a cycle top target of $200,000, representing an over 200% increase, and has previously suggested a potential peak as high as $400,000 by 2029.

bitcoinist56m ago

Bitcoin Is Going According To Plan: Analyst Who Predicted $59,000 Reveals What’s Next

bitcoinist56m ago

SpaceX's First Mars Pilot Selected is from China

In a historic week marked by SpaceX's massive IPO, the focus shifts to Wang Chun, a Chinese Bitcoin billionaire selected as the commander for humanity's first crewed mission to Mars. Born in Tianjin in 1982, Wang's fascination with remote frontiers began in childhood with a world map. A programming prodigy, he later co-founded F2Pool, which grew into one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining pools, amassing his fortune. Wealth enabled Wang to pursue his exploratory passions. In April 2025, he funded and led the private Fram2 mission, a $200 million, three-and-a-half-day SpaceX Crew Dragon flight on a unique polar orbit to photograph Earth's poles from space. On May 21, 2026, SpaceX announced Wang as the commander for the inaugural crewed Mars flyby mission aboard a Starship—a two-year journey into deep space to gather critical data for establishing a sustainable human presence on Mars, aligning with Elon Musk's vision of a multiplanetary species. Unlike many in the crypto world, Wang views his wealth as a tool for exploration rather than an end goal. His story exemplifies using resources to push human boundaries and inspire curiosity, embodying what it means to discover one's life mission.

marsbit1h ago

SpaceX's First Mars Pilot Selected is from China

marsbit1h ago

Claude's Latest Model to be Released Tomorrow, Anthropic Turns Model Launches into an IPO Language

Anthropic is positioning itself for an IPO, transitioning from a "safe AI lab" to a company speaking the language of public markets. Recent signals include a near-trillion-dollar valuation, confidential S-1 filing, high revenue run-rate, and rumors of the upcoming Claude 5 model. The market is eagerly trading on the Claude 5 (or "Fable 5") rumors, seeing the potential release as a key piece of Anthropic's IPO narrative—proof of its continued innovation. However, public investors will look beyond raw model capability to scrutinize sustainable revenue, cost structure, and profitability. A differentiator for Anthropic is its work on advanced, controlled models like Mythos and Project Glasswing, focused on high-value security tasks. This supports a premium enterprise and safety story but also brings heightened regulatory and dual-use risk disclosure pressures for its IPO. Ultimately, the S-1 filing, not model rumors, will reveal the substance. The market will judge Anthropic based on concrete metrics: revenue quality, customer concentration, cost control, and whether it can be framed as a scalable AI software platform versus a capital-intensive infrastructure player.

marsbit1h ago

Claude's Latest Model to be Released Tomorrow, Anthropic Turns Model Launches into an IPO Language

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow