Author: Ma He, Foresight News
On June 19, according to The Information, Kalshi's annualized revenue has surpassed $20 billion, and the company has initiated early, informal discussions with several investment banks regarding an initial public offering (IPO). Just one month prior, Kalshi completed a new $10 billion funding round led by Coatue Management, propelling its valuation to $220 billion. This was the company's third funding round within seven months, with other investors including Sequoia Capital, a16z, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest.
These IPO discussions are at a very early, informal stage. Company executives have only had preliminary contact with investment banks, and there is considerable distance before formal registration documents are submitted.
Total Trading Volume $52.7 Billion, Approximately 2 Million Monthly Active Users
According to Kalshidata, as of June 22, Kalshi's total trading volume has risen to $52.7 billion, with a daily average trading volume of $29.27 million. In October 2025, its daily average volume began to increase exponentially.
Kalshi currently holds over 90% share of the US prediction market activity. Kalshi's revenue explosion primarily stems from the simultaneous increase in trading volume and effective fee rates. Over the past year, its annualized trading volume has climbed from approximately $52 billion to $178 billion. Sports event contracts contribute the vast majority of revenue. NBA playoffs, 2026 FIFA World Cup-related markets, and the partnership with the National Hockey League (NHL) have attracted many traders.
In December 2025, Kalshi's annualized revenue was still around $600 million. By May this year, Kalshi had approximately 2 million monthly active users and annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion.
Additionally, Kalshi recently launched Bitcoin perpetual contracts and will roll out its perpetual contract trading platform, Kalshi Pro, this summer.
Since May 2026, Kalshi has maintained a high and rising level of open interest, while Polymarket has not shown significant change.
Litigation Battle Becomes the Biggest Variable
Kalshi's IPO path is not without obstacles, with its core risks concentrated in jurisdictional conflicts.
Kalshi maintains that its event contracts are "swaps" under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, and state-level gambling laws should not apply. Since 2026, multiple states have engaged in a tug-of-war with Kalshi. A New Jersey court sided with Kalshi regarding its sports contracts, and a Tennessee federal court granted a preliminary injunction in February 2026, finding that federal law may take precedence.
Conversely, a Massachusetts court previously ruled that Kalshi is subject to state gambling laws, and Arizona even filed criminal charges against Kalshi. The charges stated that Kalshi may call itself a prediction market, but it essentially operates illegal gambling and accepts wagers on Arizona elections, both violations of Arizona law. No company has the right to decide which laws to follow.
Tarek Mansour
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour responded: "The Arizona Attorney General's charges are baseless and a clear overreach. If they can bring these criminal charges against Kalshi, they could bring the same charges against traditional derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and NASDAQ, including options trading, interest rate swaps, and grain futures. We have filed a lawsuit against Arizona in federal court. However, instead of allowing the federal court to adjudicate the case on its merits, the state Attorney General is attempting to circumvent due process by filing bogus charges in state court. We will not be intimidated."
The CFTC has adopted an aggressive defensive posture, filing federal lawsuits against states like Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, asserting that its "exclusive jurisdiction" should not be eroded by state laws. Simultaneously, both the CFTC and Kalshi have taken enforcement actions against market manipulation and insider trading.
On June 18, 2026, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting and naming partners like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull as related parties.
The outcomes of these lawsuits will directly impact Kalshi's sports revenue stream. If ultimately unfavorable rulings affect core products, its business model and IPO will face significant pressure.
Ideally, moving from early IPO discussions to listing takes 6-9 months. Kalshi only began informal discussions in June 2026, so theoretically, the earliest possible IPO date would be December 2026. However, this requires zero delays in all steps, resolution of litigation issues, and SEC cooperation.
Multiple institutions anticipate that Kalshi's IPO could happen as early as late 2027 or 2028.
Since 2025, large fintech company IPOs exceeding $1 billion in scale have been common. For companies with similar or larger revenue scales, initial fundraising often ranges from several hundred million to over ten billion dollars. In 2025, Circle went public with an $8 billion valuation and annualized revenue around $2 billion, raising a total of approximately $1.05 billion.
Currently, with a $22 billion valuation, Kalshi has become a unicorn, trading at about 11x its annualized revenue ($2 billion revenue). If revenue continues to grow by the time of the IPO (driven by sports events, election cycles) and the US stock market maintains some liquidity, its fundraising amount could far exceed $1 billion. As for the specific figure, it remains worth close attention.
