Gemini Earn暂停提现，分析GUSD对合作方MakerDAO的影响

PanewsPublished on 2022-11-17Last updated on 2022-11-17

Abstract

传言称MakerDAO受到Gemini Earn暂停提现的影响，实际可能并非如此。

Gemini Earn暂停提现，有传言称MakerDAO有5亿美元的资金被冻结在了Gemini Earn当中，实际并非如此，此事对于GUSD和合作方MakerDAO的影响可能较小。

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11月16日晚，数据分析平台Nansen的首席运营官Alex Svanevik在社交媒体上发布了GUSD的数据。有4.8亿在MakerDAO的PSM合约中，占GUSD总量的73%；最近7天，GUSD遭遇了大量赎回。GUSD正是由加密交易所Gemini发行的。

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受3AC和FTX暴雷的影响，加密借贷平台Genesis宣布暂停提款，也导致Gemini的Earn产品暂停提现。数据显示，过去24小时，Gemini交易所的资金流出了8.5亿美元，似乎和FTX遭到挤兑初期时的状况相似。

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DeFi与CeFi的结合能够增强DeFi的盈利能力，但这种可组合性也将使CeFi的风险有可能蔓延到DeFi中。那么此次Gemini Earn产品的风险是否会传导至GUSD，并影响到MakerDAO呢？

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Genesis的风险

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导致Gemini出现风险的根源在于Genesis，倘若Genesis解决了自身的问题，Gemini的危机自然也就迎刃而解。

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我们知道，Genesis和管理着大量加密资产的Grayscale（灰度）同属于DCG旗下。在Genesis宣布暂停提现后，市场上曾经出现DCG可能关闭Grayscale，以利用锁定的BTC来拯救Genesis的传言。虽然这种可能性较低，但也说明Genesis的母公司实力较强。此前Genesis称有1.75亿美元的资金锁定在FTX的交易账户中，但Grayscale仅依靠2%的管理费，就可以产生每年2亿美元的收入，这可能已经超过了Genesis的亏空。

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虽然Genesis和Grayscale同属于一个大股东，但两者独立运作，理论上也存在让Genesis破产，Grayscale继续赚钱的可能性。Gemini称，Genesis及其母公司DCG承诺尽其所能地履行对客户的义务，这可能减轻人们的担忧。

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Genesis的风险敞口并不算特别大，仍然有通过融资，恢复正常运营的可能。有消息指出，币安CEO赵长鹏和加密做市商B2C2希望购买Genesis的部分贷款，倘若交易完成，Genesis有望摆脱危机。

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Gemini的风险隔离

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按照当前的情况，Gemini Earn能否恢复正常，完全取决于Genesis。但即使Gemini Earn的问题不能解决，风险能够传导至整个Gemini交易所也还是小概率事件。

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根据Gemini的描述，Gemini是一个完全储备的交易所，Gemini Trust Company, LLC 是纽约银行法规定的受托人和合格托管人，并获得纽约州金融服务部 (NYDFS) 的许可。按照NYDFS的要求，Gemini任何时候都必须持有超过客户存款的资本，并且必须向监管机构报告资本的重大变化。

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Gemini表示，对风险进行了隔离，交易所用户的资金可以随时取出。即使是同样能够获得收益的Staking业务，也和Earn是独立的。

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这一做法的好处是每次暴雷的风险可控，但如果一旦发生小范围的暴雷，在当前情况下就会因为FUD造成资金的大面积赎回。

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与之相比，FTX和Alameda Research则采用了完全相反的方式。即便两者是独立的公司，FTX也向Alameda Research暴露了无限的风险敞口。一旦风险暴露，两者便整体破产。

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GUSD的风险

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根据Dai Stats的数据，通过GUSD PSM产生的DAI数量约为4.91亿，已经接近上限的5亿，与Alex Svanevik公布的数据相比进一步上升。说明确实可能有持有GUSD的用户担忧GUSD出现问题，通过PSM直接将GUSD 1:1的兑换成了流动性更好的DAI。

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这并不意味着GUSD和MakerDAO就会出现问题。MakerDAO也在今日指出，GUSD的储备和Gemini Earn是隔离开的，MakerDAO、Maker协议和DAI稳定币并未以任何方式投资于Gemini Earn或相关的产品。每发行的1 GUSD都有对应的美元支持。

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GUSD虽然此前存在感不强，但也是最合规的稳定币之一。2018年，纽约金融服务局（NYDFS）批准了Paxos的PAX和Gemini的GUSD的发行，这正是第一批合规的稳定币。

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Gemini官网公布了GUSD的储备报告和由独立的注册会计师事务所BPM LLP每月出具的审计报告。截至9月30日，GUSD的储备金共计约3.31亿美元，此时发行的GUSD数量为3.3亿，有足够的储备，储备资产中约98%是以现金的形式存在。

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GUSD的快速增长是在和MakerDAO合作之后。9月29日，Gemini的联合创始人兼首席执行官Tyler Winklevoss在MakerDAO论坛发布了GUSD和MakerDAO合作公告的帖子，将从10月1日开始，向MakerDAO PSM中的GUSD提供年化1.25%的固定收益率。相关阅读：《Coinbase和Gemini的“拉储”之争，MakerDAO躺赢》

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虽然Alex Svanevik称GUSD在最近一周遭遇了大量赎回，但一周前GUSD的流通量几乎刚好处于最高点。根据CoinGecko的数据，截至11月17日，GUSD的流通量为6.34亿，与11月11日的历史最高点8.7亿相比，确实下降了27.1%。若将时间拉长，从Gemini和MakerDAO合作开始计算，从9月底开始，这段时间GUSD的流通量增长了92%。

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小结

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虽然Gemini因为Earn暂停提现，交易所遭遇资金出逃，GUSD的流通量与最高点相比也下降了27.1%，且MakerDAO PSM中的GUSD已经接近上限，链上流动性可能不足。

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但根据当前的情况，GUSD的储备金和受影响的Gemini Earn是独立的，GUSD是最合规的稳定币之一，也有每月进行审计，并没有证据表明GUSD会受到影响，MakerDAO因此而受到牵连的概率也极低。倘若GUSD出现问题，那就意味着目前所有中心化稳定币的审计都形同虚设，其它稳定币也将遭遇信任危机。

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