Bitcoin (BTC) Plunge

Bitcoin has shown a significant oversold rebound this week, with extreme panic in the crypto market easing. Multiple data points indicate a notable market bottom is forming. On the market front, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs has continued to shrink, and the negative premium between Coinbase and USDT is steadily correcting. Industry fundamentals suggest the shutdown cost for mainstream miners is concentrated between $30,000 and $50,000, potentially solidifying a阶段性 industry cost floor—a classic signal of market bottoms in previous cycles. Institutional capital is notably positioning against the trend. For instance, Sinohope Group's weekly OTC trading volume surged over 8 times环比, with active platform users doubling, both reaching record highs. This confirms a sharp increase in large capital transaction activity and a spike in off-exchange funding demand. Sinohope Research also observed on-chain data showing that funds from entities with public company attributes and long-term "whale" wallets are actively accumulating Bitcoin around the key $60,000 price level. The research institute has maintained since mid-May that a high-value investment window has reopened, and the market is now undergoing a shift from panic selling to long-term holding. Looking ahead, the core drivers for an upward market move will be liquidity release and macro policy developments. The successful and strong performance of SpaceX's IPO has reignited market optimism, and the massive liquidity frozen during its subscription period is now being unlocked. This substantial capital is expected to seek new value opportunities, potentially flowing into currently undervalued assets like Bitcoin. On the macro and policy front, the tone set in Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at the FOMC meeting is crucial for near-term monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, the potential passage of the CLARITY Act by late July could significantly boost institutional confidence for capital entry. Considering these bottoming signals alongside favorable liquidity and policy factors, Sinohope Research remains optimistic about the market's subsequent trajectory.

Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin continues to trade below its "True Market Mean," a key on-chain model estimating the average acquisition price of economically active coins at approximately $77,200. With BTC price roughly 15% below this level, the market is characterized as being in a repair or bearish regime rather than a confirmed bullish recovery. Trading below this cost-basis metric suggests a significant portion of active supply is under pressure, which can hinder rallies as underwater investors may sell into rebounds. The report highlights ongoing stress among short-term holders, contributing to market sensitivity. While a defense of current support levels shows demand, a sustained reclaim of the $77,200 True Market Mean is viewed as a more constructive signal for a broader regime shift than a simple relief bounce. For a bullish recovery to be confirmed, the market needs sufficient demand to overcome this overhead cost pressure.

A CryptoQuant analysis indicates a significant spike in Bitcoin's Spot Average Order Size around the $64,000 price support level. This metric, calculated by dividing traded volume by the number of trades, suggests increased activity from larger market participants, potentially signaling whale accumulation during the recent price pullback. While this pattern near a key support zone can imply that sizable buyers are absorbing selling pressure, the report cautions that the metric is not definitive on its own. Large order sizes can sometimes reflect exchange operations rather than directional buying. Therefore, the signal is considered more meaningful when combined with other factors like price stabilization. The observation adds a layer to the market narrative, suggesting the correction has attracted larger capital alongside retail fear. However, it does not guarantee a bottom or a bullish reversal. The $64,000 area remains critical, and Bitcoin's ability to hold this support and advance past resistance will ultimately determine the significance of the accumulation signal amidst ongoing macro and ETF-flow risks.

Strategy Inc.'s (formerly MicroStrategy) preferred stock, STRC, traded sharply below its $100 reference value during recent market stress, hitting an intraday low of $82.53. The company's CEO framed the drop as a "leverage flush"—forced selling by investors using borrowed money—rather than a fundamental default event. This distinction highlights that the selloff resulted from market mechanics and liquidity pressures, not missed payments by the issuer. The episode underscores the specific risks embedded in Bitcoin-linked credit products, which can behave differently from holding Bitcoin or common stock. As Bitcoin treasury strategies become more complex and financialized, instruments like preferred shares introduce additional layers of risk, including leverage, liquidity constraints, and sensitivity to Bitcoin's volatility. The STRC movement serves as a warning about the fragility of these structures in stressed markets, even when the underlying company remains solvent.

Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture around the $60,000 level, which analysts view as a major technical and psychological support zone. According to a TradingView analysis, a successful hold above this demand area could pave the way for a recovery toward $81,000. However, the warning is clear: a decisive and sustained break below $60,000 would invalidate the bullish outlook, likely triggering stop losses and a deeper market correction. The current setup is described as a binary test—maintaining support keeps the recovery narrative alive, while losing it would signal a shift toward a more significant downturn.