Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is the Profit Moat of Stablecoin Leader CRCL Solid?
The article presents a heated debate surrounding Circle (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, focusing on the sustainability of its business model following its IPO and Q3 2025 earnings report.
Key bearish points, led by figures like Jiang Zhuo'er, argue that CRCL's profits are unsustainable. They compare it to a bank reliant on an interest rate spread, which is highly vulnerable to Federal Reserve rate cuts. Critics highlight that over 60% of profits are paid to distributor Coinbase, leaving CRCL with a thin margin. They warn that competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan could easily disrupt its model, and that its regulatory advantage is a temporary benefit, not a permanent moat.
Bullish commentators, including @BTCdayu and @qinbafrank, counter that CRCL is a long-term infrastructure play, not a simple bank. They believe current profit-sharing is a strategic cost to achieve market dominance and network effects, similar to companies like Amazon in their early days. They argue that future growth from massive USDC adoption (potentially reaching trillions) will far outweigh the impact of falling interest rates. They see compliance as a powerful, long-term moat that will eliminate smaller competitors.
Additional short-term concerns include a significant sell-off pressure from the post-IPO lockup expiration and a structural barrier to USDC's use in U.S. retail payments due to its classification as a taxable asset.
In summary, the debate pits short-term cyclical risks (interest rates, high costs, sell pressure) against a long-term structural opportunity (market growth, network effects, compliance as a barrier to entry). The core question remains whether CRCL's current model is a fragile interest-rate play or a foundational bet on the future of digital currency.
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