FTX 突发性死亡后，Crypto 行业将面临大洗牌

DeFi之道Published on 2022-11-10Last updated on 2022-11-10

Abstract

FTX 的突发性死亡，引爆了 Crypto 行业的新一轮崩盘，有人便形容称，这是属于 Crypto 圈子的雷曼时刻。

根据外媒传言称，FTX 的资产负债表缺口达到了 80 亿美元，以当前的 16000 美元的 BTC 市场价计算，这相当于 50 万 BTC，而在 Crypto 历史上，仅有 Mt.gox 事件损失的 BTC 超过这一数量。

而 FTX 崩盘事件，损失资金的不仅仅是 FTX 平台的用户，不少顶级投资机构也因此栽了跟头，例如黑石、安大略养老基金、红杉、Paradigm 、软银、Tiger Global、Circle、Multicoin 等。

除此之外，FTX ventures 还参与投资了包括 Aptos、Layerzero、offchain labs(Arbitrum) 、Mysten labs (Sui)、Solana、Yuga labs、Polygon 在内的诸多明星 Crypto 项目。

而 FTX 的崩盘，还会导致美国监管机进一步收紧对行业的限制……

(注：美国马萨诸塞州参议员 Elizabeth Warren 表示，美国政府需要更积极的执法，她将继续推动 SEC 执法以保护消费者和金融稳定。）

对此，Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong评论称：“FTX.com 是一家不受 SEC 监管的离岸交易所，问题是美国 SEC 未能在美国建立监管明确性，因此许多美国投资者（以及 95% 的交易活动）都转向了海外，为此惩罚美国公司是没有意义的。”

种种迹象表明，Crypto 行业的冬天要被迫延长了。

当然，作为行业参与者，在应该悲观的时刻，我们也需要思考有哪些点是值得我们去乐观的，这也是写本文的初衷。

1、首先，最重要的一点是，FTX 的暴雷，是传统金融普遍存在的挪用用户资金问题导致的，在 Crypto 历史上，有很多交易平台或理财平台暴雷事件都是因为类似的原因，这也是为何很多人会把 “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins” 这句话挂在嘴边，从另一个角度来看，这次事件也印证了 Crypto 去中心化的意义和价值，从长远来看，比特币等去中心化加密资产是值得更多人拥有的，而 DEX 等去中心化金融（DeFi）基础设施，更应该被重视。

2、像 SBF 这样贪婪的价值提取者，对行业来说，早一些暴雷也不失为一件好事。

3、这次事件再次很好地提醒了我们，即便是顶级 VC 机构，也会犯很低级的错误，不要过度迷信。

4、行业将面临重新洗牌，这会伴随着新的机会。

5、很多之前因为 FTX 等顶级机构带火的叙事，接下来会很困难，我们也无需再因此而焦虑了。

6、游客来的快，去的也快，而接下来的注意力，可以更集中于 Crypto 纯粹主义以及介于两者之间的人和项目之上。

7、延长的熊市，持续 build 的人和项目是更值得信赖的，这可以帮助我们识别真正的 Gem。

8、失败的经历是宝贵的，比如杠杆、托管、梭哈等，未来再遇到类似的坑，大概率就能避开。

9、认可 Crypto 价值的人会越来越多，这意味着 Crypto 牛市还是会来的，这个阶段，耐心比什么策略都更重要。

Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

Stock Market Trends (June 23): Did SpaceX Peak at IPO? The company loses over $800 billion in market value in three days as a sharp divergence unfolds within the tech sector. SpaceX's post-IPO decline of over 20%, falling below its first-day close, reflects a swift market repricing. The catalyst is a clear shift in narrative from "AI platform potential" to concerns over rising capital costs, as its $8.57 billion IPO and subsequent $20 billion debt offering are earmarked for acquisitions and refinancing existing bridge loans rather than de-leveraging. While high-valuation tech stocks like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft faced pressure, Micron surged nearly 7% to a record high following a strategic supply deal with Anthropic for HBM and memory, highlighting robust, tangible demand in AI infrastructure. The broader market saw funds rotate into more defensive industrial and financial names. Macro factors included a dip in oil prices to a three-month low on news of a US-Iran framework deal, though logistical hurdles for resuming full Strait of Hormuz shipments remain. Key events ahead include Nvidia's shareholder meeting, Micron's earnings, and the May PCE inflation data. The latter will be crucial in determining whether the sell-off in high-valuation growth stocks, which appears to have just begun, will persist.

marsbit5m ago

Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

marsbit5m ago

Interview with MicroStrategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Selling Stir, 6 Trillion AI Agents are the Ultimate Endgame for Bitcoin

Interview with Strategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Sale, 6 Trillion AI Agents are Bitcoin's Ultimate Endgame Strategy CEO Phong Le discusses the recent sale of 32 BTC, clarifying it was a minor, strategic move to demonstrate operational liquidity and internal process robustness to creditors and rating agencies, not a reaction to market fears. He emphasizes Strategy's disciplined, data-driven decision-making framework involving its board and complex financial modeling, distancing the company from centralized "black box" operations seen elsewhere in crypto. Le outlines the company's resilience and long-term focus, citing the "doing nothing" strategy during the 2022 bear market as a testament to its conviction in Bitcoin's underlying value proposition for global sovereignty and freedom. He reveals that generative AI was instrumental in developing their Stretch (STRC) preferred stock product, cutting development time from years to months. The most visionary part of the discussion centers on Agentic AI. Le envisions a future with 6 trillion autonomous AI agents conducting commerce, particularly in off-world environments like Mars, which would naturally adopt decentralized crypto rails and seek yield-bearing assets like Bitcoin as a core store of value. Finally, Le addresses the STRC product, expressing confidence it will return to its $100 par value through reserve replenishment and the initiation of dividend payments, and dismisses concerns about competition with stablecoins. He concludes by affirming Strategy's philosophy of expanding Bitcoin access through all available means, from self-custody to ETFs, to onboard the next wave of users.

marsbit33m ago

Interview with MicroStrategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Selling Stir, 6 Trillion AI Agents are the Ultimate Endgame for Bitcoin

marsbit33m ago

Interview with Strategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Selling Controversy, 6 Trillion AI Agents Are Bitcoin's Ultimate Endgame

Interview with Strategy CEO Phong Le: The company's sale of 32 BTC sparked market reactions, but Le emphasizes their long-term focus on Bitcoin. He explains the sale was a small test to demonstrate liquidity to creditors and internal processes, not a reaction to "death spiral" fears. The decision-making process involves the board and rigorous financial modeling, moving away from a founder-centric model. Le highlights the strategic option of "doing nothing," holding their 845,000 BTC reserve, as a key lesson from the 2022 bear market. He expresses unwavering belief in Bitcoin's underlying value proposition for global financial sovereignty. Looking ahead, Le is most excited about AI's role. He reveals their AI-aided development of the STRC (Strategy Preferred Stock) product and envisions a future with trillions of AI agents conducting commerce on decentralized networks, with Bitcoin as the foundational store of value. Le advocates for inclusivity in Bitcoin adoption, welcoming all methods from self-custody to ETFs. Regarding STRC trading below its $100 face value, he attributes it to temporary reserve drawdowns for bond buybacks and expects it to stabilize with replenished reserves and the start of dividend payments. He also confirms the company did sell BTC before May 31st, as disclosed in their filings.

链捕手35m ago

Interview with Strategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Selling Controversy, 6 Trillion AI Agents Are Bitcoin's Ultimate Endgame

链捕手35m ago

Dialogue with Intel's Chen Liwu: The End of AI Isn't Just GPU, But Also Power, Materials, and Manufacturing

Summary: In a conversation, Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan discusses the challenges and opportunities in the AI-driven semiconductor industry. He outlines Intel's multi-step recovery plan—first stabilizing the company's financials and culture ("crawl"), then focusing on core products and customer trust ("walk"), before aggressively pursuing innovation ("run"). Key points include the renewed importance of CPUs in agentic AI and edge computing, the strategic necessity of rebuilding U.S.-based advanced manufacturing for supply chain resilience, and investments in critical bottlenecks like power, materials (e.g., GaN, SiC), advanced packaging, and novel substrates. Tan emphasizes that semiconductor success now hinges not just on chip design but on a holistic system encompassing manufacturing, software, and energy efficiency. He also highlights collaborations, such as with TerraFab, as examples of customers directly engaging with the manufacturing ecosystem to overcome capacity constraints. The future of AI compute, he argues, will extend beyond massive data centers to include robotics and physical AI at the edge.

marsbit54m ago

Dialogue with Intel's Chen Liwu: The End of AI Isn't Just GPU, But Also Power, Materials, and Manufacturing

marsbit54m ago

‘AI Broke Through NSA in Hours’ Goes Viral, But Is It Actually a Red Team Exercise?

The viral claim that Anthropic's AI model 'Mythos' breached almost all of NSA's classified systems in 'hours, not weeks' has been clarified as a misinterpretation. The statement originated from a U.S. Senator citing the NSA director within a broader argument for mandatory pre-release testing of frontier AI models. The author of the original Economist article later clarified that the feat was achieved under very specific, controlled conditions during an authorized red-team exercise, where Mythos was used alongside other tools to find vulnerabilities in a replica of NSA systems, not a live breach. This highlights Mythos's advanced capabilities in vulnerability discovery and attack path reasoning during security testing. Anthropic restricts access to such powerful models through its 'Project Glasswing' program for vetted defense organizations. The incident underscores the U.S. government's conflicted stance: while citing security risks to justify actions like export controls on Anthropic's models, agencies like the NSA reportedly continue using them for defense purposes. The narrative evolved from a call for regulation into a sensationalized 'AI hacks NSA' headline, demonstrating how technical achievements in controlled environments can be misconstrued as real-world attacks.

marsbit55m ago

‘AI Broke Through NSA in Hours’ Goes Viral, But Is It Actually a Red Team Exercise?

marsbit55m ago

Trading

Spot

Futures

Hot Categories

Market Analysis3,063 news items