[Анализ рынка от Huobi] Киты продали 56500 BTC. Биткоин и эфир демонстрируют негативную динамику

HTX NewsPublished on 2022-09-07Last updated on 2022-09-07

Abstract

Биткоин совершил медвежий прорыв из коррекционного паттерна и теперь может пробить область горизонтальной поддержки. Если это произойдет, BTC может поглотить минимумы июня.

1. Объём торгов BTC резко увеличился

Вчерашний торговый день, 6 сентября, был отмечен практически рекордным за год дневным объёмом торгов – больше было только 8 июля. Теперь BTC достиг области поддержки на $19 000 и даже опустился чуть ниже нее.

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Результаты волнового анализа предполагают, что биткоин находится сейчас в пятой, заключительной, волне медвежьей структуры (белый цвет), берущей свое начало от исторического максимума, достигнутого в ноябре.

Если этот сценарий верен, то BTC может упасть к $15 420 или $12 770. Это целевые уровни, представленные уровнями Фибо 1.27 и 1.61 внешней коррекции волны 4 (белый цвет).

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2. Киты не дремлют

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Количество крупных транзакций в сети BTC, очевидно, восстанавливается. Вчера было зарегистрировано 113 крупных транзакций на общую сумму 56500 BTC. Это указывает на то, что киты возобновили свою активность, и дальнейший рост объёма торгов с сохранением негативной динамики может привести к тому, что биткоин упадёт ниже нынешнего уровня 18800 долл. США.

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3. Когда же дно

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Несмотря на медвежью динамику цены и технических индикаторов, большинство ончейн-индикаторов продолжают упрямо сулить валюте близкое дно. Так, недавно аналитик @OnChainCollege разместил в Twitter график одного из таких индикаторов. Он обратил внимание, что показатель доли биткоин-адресов с монетами, находящимися в состоянии прибыли (percent supply in profit), опустился ниже отметки 48%.

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Как комментирует аналитик, значения ниже 50% раньше традиционно указывали на формирование рыночного основания. Так происходило в случае с каждым предыдущим медвежьим рынком BTC и в марте 2020 года.

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4. Эфир показывает негативную динамику

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Индикатор K-Line на ТФ 1 день указывает на наличие признаков разворота тренда. Вероятно, цена на эфир и продолжит падение, если не сумеет закрепиться на указанном на графике уровне поддержки, учитывая, что объёмы торгов по-прежнему невелики. Дневная амплитуда цены достигла 8,21% 6 сентября, что в два раза больше, чем было зарегистрировано за день до этого. При сохранении такого негативного тренда, цена может упасть до следующего уровня поддержки – 1400 долл. США. Если же и там эфиру не удастся закрепиться, то можно ожидать падения и до 1000 долларов.

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5. Cтaвкa финaнcиpoвaния Ethereum падает

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Пo дaнным CrуptoQuant, cтaвкa финaнcиpoвaния ETH упaлa дo oтpицaтeльнoй oтмeтки, что укaзывaeт нa cильныe мeдвeжьи нacтpoeния cpeди тpeйдepoв ETH. Сейчас она составляет -0,022%.

B пocлeдний paз cтaвки финaнcиpoвaния были тaкими жe oтpицaтeльными в июлe 21 гoдa, кaк paз пepeд oгpoмным кopoтким cжaтиeм биткoинa и эфиpиумa.

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