战争交易平仓｜TradeXYZ周末观察

marsbitPublished on 2026-06-15Last updated on 2026-06-15

Abstract

周末市场呈现显著的风险偏好回归，各大指数走强，科技与贵金属大幅上涨，而能源板块（尤其是原油）则因“战争结束”的明确信号而受挫。 6月14日，关于美伊谈判的消息反复影响油价。晚间特朗普宣布与伊朗协议完成，授权立即解除海上封锁并开放霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗方面也同步宣布多条战线停火。市场对此消息已提前定价，油价在消息正式公布前已跌至低位，标普500指数随后上涨。贵金属在协议达成时出现跳涨，黄金和白银快速拉升高位后企稳。个股方面，NBIS和RKLB因被纳入纳斯达克指数而表现强劲，NBIS还因其AI云业务高增长获上调目标价。LITE则因摩根大通给出高目标价受到关注。SpaceX概念ETF（SPCX）受马斯克关于公司营收前景的言论提振而快速上涨。总体来看，持续数月的战争对市场的冲击正在消解，但6月19日正式协议签署前，以色列的动向仍是变数。此外，本周美联储新主席的首秀及日本央行加息预期也将是市场关注重点。

周末的盘面几乎是一边倒的风险偏好回归。

各大指数全面走强,科技、贵金属大幅上涨;能源板块受到重挫(CL −1.79%、Brent −1.23%、NATGAS −0.7%),这正是「战争结束」叙事最直接的注脚。

原油 & 美股指数

6 月 14 日 07:31,Fars 通讯社引述接近谈判团队的消息源称:伊朗尚未就拟议中的谅解备忘录(MOU)做出最终决定。油价随即上涨至 82.6。

同日 19:51,YNET 进一步爆料:特朗普可能愿意立即解除对伊朗及霍尔木兹海峡的海上封锁,而非按当前约定逐步进行。

晚间 21:30,决定性的一刻到来。特朗普在 Truth Terminal 发消息表示:「与伊朗的协议已经完成」「授权立即解除美国海上封锁」「授权霍尔木兹海峡免费(toll free)开放」。伊朗副外长同步表态,将于当晚起宣布多条战线(含黎巴嫩)立即、永久停止军事行动。

值得一提的是此时原油价格已经跌至 TradeXYZ 的周末价格边界,市场「提前定价」了这条消息。

标普 500 指数随后触及 7530 美元。

在和平协议正式签署(19 日)之前,市场大概率仍要经历一段等待期。

贵金属

在 21:30 协议达成消息公布的同一时刻,黄金从约 4,221 直接跳升至 4,337 高点、白银从约 67.85 拉升至 70.83 高点,随后高位企稳。

个股 / ETF

NBIS、RKLB 和 LITE 等几只个股在周末表现强劲。

NBIS:6 月 12 日被纳入纳斯达克指数;Compass Point 上调目标价,理由是 AI 云业务增长强劲——Q1 2026 营收 3.99 亿美元,同比增长 683.9%。

RKLB:同样于 6 月 12 日被纳入纳斯达克指数,并受到 SpaceX 估值情绪外溢的提振。

LITE:JPMorgan 在 6 月 11 日的报告中给出 1,130 美元目标价.

SPCX 同样表现强势,马斯克在周末的一则推特回复中表示,「我认为 SpaceX 或许能在 2030 年实现约 1 万亿美元营收」,SPCX 在 TradeXYZ 上几分钟内上涨了 0.56%

综合来看,三个多月的战争给市场带来的冲击开始走向消解,协议要到 6 月 19 日才正式签署,期间以色列的动向是最大变数。

本周三 Warsh 的美联储首秀、日本央行的加息预期等因素也将对市场产生重要影响。

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2.2k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

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