La Demanda de Bitcoin Cae al Ritmo más Rápido Desde el Colapso de LUNA: Datos

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-05Last updated on 2026-06-05

Abstract

La demanda total de Bitcoin, medida por los flujos combinados hacia los mercados spot y de futuros, se ha contraído bruscamente en el último mes, alcanzando un ritmo comparable al período posterior al colapso de Terra/LUNA en mayo de 2022. Los datos de CryptoQuant muestran que el cambio de 30 días en la demanda total ha caído a -501,000 BTC, su nivel más bajo desde ese evento. Durante el repunte de abril y mayo, la subida de precios fue impulsada principalmente por la demanda especulativa en futuros, mientras que la demanda spot se contrajo. Históricamente, las tendencias alcistas sostenibles requieren un aumento simultáneo en ambos mercados. Tras la corrección, el precio de Bitcoin ha caído a alrededor de $63,200, su nivel más bajo desde febrero. Si la tendencia actual continúa, la salida de capitales podría aproximarse al ritmo observado tras el colapso de LUNA.

Los datos on-chain muestran que la demanda total de Bitcoin se ha contraído significativamente durante el mes pasado, alcanzando un ritmo comparable al del colapso de LUNA.

La Demanda de Bitcoin en Spot y Futuros Se Ha Reducido Recientemente

Como señaló Julio Moreno, jefe de investigación de CryptoQuant, en una publicación de X, la demanda de Bitcoin se ha contraído a un ritmo acelerado recientemente. "Demanda" aquí se refiere a la cantidad combinada de Bitcoin que fluye hacia los mercados spot y de futuros.

A continuación se muestra el gráfico compartido por Moreno que muestra el cambio a 30 días en esta demanda durante los últimos años.

El valor de la métrica parece haberse desplomado en los últimos días | Fuente: @jjcmoreno en X

Como se muestra en el gráfico, la demanda total de Bitcoin aumentó junto con el repunte de precio que ocurrió durante abril y la primera quincena de mayo. Curiosamente, como sugiere la codificación de colores de la curva, este aumento se debió a la demanda que fluyó hacia los mercados de derivados; la demanda spot en realidad se contrajo durante el rally.

En el pasado, los movimientos alcistas del precio generalmente solo han sido sostenibles cuando la demanda ha aumentado simultáneamente en los mercados spot y de futuros. En el gráfico, es evidente que tanto los rallies alcistas de 2024 como el repunte de 2025 involucraron esta configuración en verde. Dado que el reciente repunte de recuperación fue impulsado solo por actividad especulativa, quizás no sea sorprendente que no pudiera durar, y ha seguido una fuerte reversión para el mercado.

El cambio de vientos en el sector Bitcoin no solo ha involucrado que la demanda total se vuelva negativa, sino que también ha llevado a un giro en la dirección de la actividad especulativa, alineándola con la tendencia de contracción del mercado spot. Actualmente, el cambio a 30 días en la demanda total se sitúa en un valor negativo de 501,000 BTC, que es el nivel más bajo que la métrica ha alcanzado desde mayo de 2022. "La demanda de Bitcoin se está contrayendo a un ritmo comparable al período posterior al colapso de Terra/Luna", señaló el analista.

El colapso de Terra/LUNA fue un evento violento que ocurrió durante el mercado bajista de 2022. Durante el evento, UST, una stablecoin algorítmica, perdió su paridad de 1 dólar y provocó que el ecosistema Terra se desestabilizara en una espiral de muerte, desencadenando finalmente una caída en todo el sector más amplio.

En aquel entonces, la contracción en la demanda spot y de futuros alcanzó la marca de -559,000 BTC. El valor actual del indicador aún no está ahí, pero si el mercado continúa en esta trayectoria, es posible que la demanda pueda salir del mercado a un ritmo similar. Sin embargo, solo queda por ver cómo se desarrollará el sector Bitcoin en el futuro cercano.

Precio de BTC

Tras la caída del precio, Bitcoin ha bajado al nivel de los $63,200, el nivel más bajo en el que se ha encontrado el activo desde febrero.

Parece que el precio de la moneda ha estado disminuyendo recientemente | Fuente: BTCUSDT en TradingView

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1.3k Total ViewsPublished 2024.12.17Updated 2024.12.17

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