How USN v2.0 withstand a bear and thrive in a bull?

Huobi ResearchPublished on 2022-07-11Last updated on 2022-07-11

Abstract

Prices of cryptocurrencies have been trending upwards in the past week, continuing the trend from the week before that.

Abstract

This week, we focus on the following events: 1) Reddit Launches Polygon-Based 'Collectible Avatar' Marketplace; 2) TON Foundation Sets Up US$90M Ecosystem Fund; 3) US Restricts Officials Holding Crypto From Policy Making; ______________________________________________________________________________

Project Analysis: On June 30, the Decentral Bank announced USN v2.0 which is an update version of USN v1.0. The Decentral Bank aims to create a stablecoin that is “truly stable, which can withstand a bear and thrive in a bull.” The following report will analyze what changes have been made for USN v2.0.

1. Industry overview

I. Overall market trend

Figure 1. Overall market data

Source: CoinMarketCap

Prices of cryptocurrencies have been trending upwards in the past week, continuing the trend from the week before that. Bitcoin is officially price at over US$22,000 this week, and currently at $22,095, which indicates a sign of recovery. Ethereum also had a good week, going higher from US$1,052 all the way to US$1,256. Some meme coins are experiencing a large-scale drop while major market indicators are showing upward trends.

Table 1. Last week's hot currencies

Source: CoinMarketCap

Crypto prices have correlated increasingly to equity markets, which also rose on Thursday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq jumping more than 2% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each climbing by more than a percentage point, according to Coindesk. It is not clear whether this is a sign of complete recovery or a short-term surge, as the market consensus considers the current situation a bear market. The crypto market still faces pressure from supervision, ongoing inflation, and interest rate rise. Russia and Britain still have ambiguous attitude toward crypto assets, and unstable war and financial situations have resulted in a crypto market crisis and opportunity at the same time, because digital assets can either be seen as safe-haven assets or trigger greater supervision pressure.

II.NFT

Table 2. NFT Collections Listed By Sales Volume (7d)

Source: CoinMarketCap

The NFT market last week experienced a major decrease in market cap, while sales volume and total sales remained unchanged. Amongst the top collections, the different NFT projects have experienced little change as most of the volume and average prices changed less than 0.1% compared to last week. While the top 10 collections (according to weekly volume) changed, collection prices remained steady. The top collections like BAYC, ENS, and Otherdeed have a slowly rising market cap, while volumes fluctuated greatly.

Table 3. Top trending collections on NFTGO (by weekly volume)

Source: NFTGO

III.DeFi

Table 4. DeFi market TVL ranking

Source: DefiLlama

IV.Layer 2

Table 5. Layer2 protocols ranking and market share

Source: l2beat

2. Market news (Sources: Coindesk, Odaily, Jinse Finance, CoinGape, Coingeek, PR Newswire)

I. Industry news

Reddit Launches Polygon-Based 'Collectible Avatar' Marketplace

Social network Reddit's Polygon-based collectible avatar marketplace – allowing users to purchase blockchain-based profile pictures for a fixed rate – is open for business, the company said Thursday.

“Collectible avatars are backed by blockchain technology, giving purchasers rights (a license) to use the art – on and off Reddit,” the company said. The avatars can be stored and managed on Reddit’s own blockchain wallet, Vault, which is currently used to earn blockchain-based community points which can be spent on in-app features such as badges.

Celsius Sends US$500M of Bitcoin Derivative to Crypto Exchange After Debt Payoff

Beleaguered crypto lender Celsius deposited US$500 million in wrapped bitcoin (WBTC), a bitcoin derivative product of the Ethereum blockchain, to crypto exchange FTX just hours after Celsius repaid its debt to the decentralized lending protocol Maker and reclaimed US$450 million of collateral in WBTC. Blockchain transaction data shared by blockchain data firm Nansen shows that a wallet linked to Celsius sent 24,463 WBTC to FTX in various steps.

Shiba Inu Plans to Launch Stablecoin, Reward Token, Collectible Card Game

A lead developer behind popular meme cryptocurrency SHIB on Wednesday teased plans to expand the Shiba Inu ecosystem with a decentralized stablecoin, a reward token called TREAT as well as a collectible card game for its metaverse. In a Medium blog post, pseudonymous developer Shytoshi Kusama said that "independent developers" are crafting a decentralized stablecoin called SHI, which "seems to avoid the issues found in other moonshots" – a likely reference to the billion-dollar Terra/Luna implosion. The team expects to share more information when SHI gets closer to its final form, and plans to launch later in 2022, the blog post said.

II. Investment and Financing

TON Foundation Sets Up US$90M Ecosystem Fund

The stewards of the TON Foundation have set up a new US$90 million ecosystem fund, continuing its recent attempts to get the Telegram-founded blockchain project back into gear. TON is a proof-of-stake blockchain originally created by Telegram in 2017, but was shut down by the messaging app in August 2020 following legal action from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) alleging that it had run an unregistered securities sale.

Animoca Brands Leads US$32M Funding Round for Planetarium Labs

Planetarium Labs, which is building a community-driven Web3 game network, has raised US$32 million in a Series A funding round led by Animoca Brands. The investment will be used to help Planetarium Labs build out its network with tools for gaming and player governance, according to co-founder and CEO Kijun Seo and CoinDesk. Other investors in the round included Samsung Next and Planetarium partners Krust Universe, the investment arm of South Korean tech giant Kakao, and WeMade, the publisher of play-to-earn game Mir4.

New Crypto Pptions and Futures Exchange 'Thalex' closes Series A Funding Round

Thalex, a trading platform offering stablecoin-settled crypto options and futures, announced it has closed its Series A funding round of EUR 7.5 million. Among the participants are Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Flow Traders, IMC, QCP and Wintermute. These strategic investors will support the company's ambition to enable on-exchange trading of crypto derivatives at scale by removing friction, ensuring platform reliability; and partnering with liquidity providers and major exchanges.

III. Supervision

US Restricts Officials Holding Crypto From Policy Making

US Government’s Ethics Chief mentioned that officials holding digital assets will be restricted from guiding President Joe Biden over crypto related policies. As per the release from their office, any US govt employee holding any amount of crypto or stablecoins as a personal investment is barred from participating in any matter related to such policies. It added that the employee may know that any particular matter could have a predictable or direct effect on the worth of their holdings.

US Treasury Develops 'Framework' for International Crypto Regulation

The U.S. Treasury Department published a fact sheet Thursday outlining how it could work with foreign regulators to address the cryptocurrency sector.The fact sheet, which is the first report published by the department as a result of U.S. President Joe Biden's executive order on crypto, said the framework "is intended to ensure that ... America's core democratic values are respected," pointing to consumer, investor and business protection, the safety of the global financial system and interoperability.

Central African Republic launches official digital currency ‘Sango Coin’

The Central African Republic’s (CAR) adoption of digital assets and blockchain technology continues to gain new grounds. The country has introduced a national digital currency called “Sango Coin” that will complement its digital currency hub project—Project Sango. CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra announced Sango Coin during the Sango Genesis Event, a virtual event launching Project Sango. According to Touadéra, Sango Coin will be the next-generation currency for the country and will be a gateway to the country’s natural resources.

3. Trending project analysis – USN v2.0

On June 30, Decentral Bank, a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), announced USN version 2 (v2.0) update of their current system. Its goal is to create a stablecoin that is “truly stable, which can withstand a bear and thrive in a bull.”

I. USN v1.0

Previously, the main stabilization mechanism of USN v1.0 exploited an arbitrage smart contract that allowed for the exchange of NEAR and USN so that in any circumstance, 1 USN can be traded for US$1 of NEAR, and US$1 of NEAR could be traded for 1 USN.

Figure 1 : Basic model of the main USN on-chain smart contract on NEAR Protocol

Source: USN v1.0 white paper

The Decentral Bank created USN and maintains stability based on two principles: initial double-collateralization and automatic rebalancing of the Reserve Fund.

 Initial double-collateralization

The Reserve Fund of USN stablecoin was the core of this project. The Decentral Bank believes an overcollaterallized stablecoin is the best kind of stablecoin to maintain its stability, as USN can be bought back from the reserve in extreme cases. Specifically, they started the Reserve Fund with US$1 billion worth of USDT. The initial double collateralization of USN in the Reserve Fund – with both the NEAR and other stablecoin amounts each equal to the total amount of initially issued USN – guarantees “ultimate liquidity” of USN by means of the Reserve Fund, both initially and further down the line. Since Decentral Bank has constructed a model where the issuer will always be able to buy back the entire issuance of USN even during extreme scenarios of “panic sale” or “death spiral,” it ensures that the ratio between backed assets and issued USN is at least 100%.

 Automatic rebalancing of the Reserve Fund

Treasury Management processes were automated using smart contracts deployed on the NEAR Protocol. The Decentral Bank implemented automatic rebalancing of the Reserve Fund as a part of the Treasury Management activity. For example, given the decentralized nature and frequency of transactions in cryptocurrency markets, Decentral Bank performed very frequent, dynamically configurable, nearly real-time small-volume transactions to avoid any severe imbalances in the Reserve Fund. Figure 2 below shows how it works in real-life.

Figure 2 : Examples about automatic rebalancing of the Reserve Fund

Source: USN v1.0 white paper

This system helped the Decentral Bank maintain its peg and collaterlization during the May 21 crash.

Figure 3 : Market price of USN to USD

Source: CoinMarketCap

However, due to recent events, such as the death spiral of UST, the pain level is extremely high. In the previous report published by Huobi Research, the pain level is calculated according to the formula below:

Pain Level = ($Top_marketcap — $price * circ_supply)* btc_amount_in_loss/ circ_supply * (address balance>0.1 BTC / address balance>0.01 BTC) * (1/Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow)

The result shows that the pain crypto market players are currently experiencing has only occurred 3 times across the entire lifetime of the crypto market.

Figure 4 : Pain level indicator

Source: Data built by Huobi Research

The Decentral Bank team conducted more sophisticated and aggressive simulations, and it found that "given the uncertainty around how long this bear market will last and the selling pressure induced by tightening macro conditions, v1.0 could, potentially, pose a risk that $USN could become undercollateralized from sustained volatility of the NEAR price." In order to eliminate the risk, the Decentral Bank redesigned USN to adapt the current market condition.

II. USN v2.0

USN v2.0 will be going through two phases and be a more flexible model that can adapt to any market condition. It starts with a 1:1 backing of primarily stable assets with a sustainable, native yield from NEAR staking rewards; and then reintroduces non-stablecoin assets as collateral in the future.

Figure 5 : Comparison between USN v1.0 and USN v2.0

Source: The Decentral Bank’s Twitter

 Phase I

Unlike USN v1.0 overcollateralized with USDT and NEAR, USN v2.0 will be 1:1 backed with USDT. Users can mint and redeem USN only with USDT. Starting from June 30, users can find that on the contract level, as well as the Decentral Bank swap page, Ref Finance, and Sender wallet, the on-chain arbitrage mechanism becomes USDT and USN from NEAR and USN.

Figure 6 : DecentralBank SWAP USDT and USN

Source: Decentral-bank.finance

Meanwhile, the NEAR in the Reserve Fund from USN v1.0 and other grants may be staked to generate a native USN yield. Beginning with Phase I, US$1 million USN per month may be distributed through Ref Finance during July 2022 and August 2022. The risk of undercollateralization posed by NEAR's volatility during bear markets has been radically reduced.

 Phase II

As market conditions recover, the Decentral Bank may vote to transition to Phase II, where non-stablecoin assets will be reintroduced to mint and redeem USN . Starting with NEAR, USN v2.0 will generate greater yield in the bull market condition, as more NEAR is used to mint USN. Furthermore, the Decentral Bank said it might use a basket of market-leading stablecoins as its underlying collateral, including USDT, USDC and DAI. The full structure of Phase II will be detailed in the USN whitepaper about v2.0.

4. Calendar of future popular asset events

I. NTF mint Calendar

II. Token Airdrops

Related Reads

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Positions

Harvard University's endowment fund, managed by Harvard Management Company (HMC), recently disclosed significant reductions in its cryptocurrency holdings. According to its latest 13F filing, HMC sold its entire position in the BlackRock Ethereum Spot ETF (ETHA) and reduced its stake in the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) by 43% in Q1 2026. This marks a sharp reversal from its peak holdings of $443 million in crypto assets just two quarters prior, bringing the current value to approximately $117 million. Analysis suggests these sales likely resulted in substantial losses. Estimates indicate HMC's Bitcoin ETF trades incurred a roughly 28% loss (over $100 million), while its brief Ethereum position fell about 35% (over $30 million), totaling potential losses exceeding $150 million. The timing of HMC's trades—aggressively adding to Bitcoin near its all-time high in late 2025 and buying Ethereum just before a market downturn—has drawn criticism as potential "buying high and selling low." However, the context points to broader pressures. Harvard faced a $113 million operating deficit in FY2025 due to cuts in federal research funding and a significant tax increase on endowment income. With much of its portfolio locked in illiquid private equity and hedge funds, the highly liquid crypto ETFs presented the most straightforward assets to sell for liquidity and risk management. Furthermore, HMC's Bitcoin ETF holding had grown to 20% of its public portfolio by Q3 2025, prompting necessary rebalancing. The move contrasts with other institutions like Mubadala (increasing Bitcoin ETF holdings) and Dartmouth College (maintaining and diversifying crypto exposure). Ultimately, Harvard's actions appear driven by a confluence of fiscal stress, liquidity needs, and portfolio risk control rather than a simple market-timing strategy, highlighting how traditional institutional risk calculus applies even to volatile crypto assets.

marsbit1m ago

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Positions

marsbit1m ago

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Holdings

Harvard University's endowment fund, Harvard Management Company (HMC), significantly reduced its cryptocurrency holdings in Q1 2026, reportedly incurring substantial losses. According to its latest 13F filing, HMC completely sold off its position in the BlackRock Ethereum ETF (ETHA) and cut its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holdings by 43%, leaving a position worth approximately $117 million. This marks a sharp decline from a peak public crypto allocation of $443 million just two quarters prior. Analysis suggests these trades resulted in estimated losses exceeding $150 million, with Bitcoin positions sold at an average loss of around 28% and Ethereum positions at roughly 35%. The moves have sparked debate on whether HMC engaged in counterproductive "buy high, sell low" behavior. The article contextualizes HMC's crypto journey, beginning with its initial disclosed investment in IBIT and gold ETF GLD in Q2 2025 as an "inflation hedge." Aggressive buying in Q3 2025 made IBIT its largest single public holding at 20% of the portfolio, coinciding with Bitcoin nearing all-time highs. Subsequent trimming began in Q4 2025, with an initial foray into ETHA. Explanations for the recent drastic cuts extend beyond market timing. Harvard faces significant financial pressure, including an annual operating deficit and a major increase in endowment tax rates. With illiquid assets like private equity dominating the portfolio, the highly liquid crypto ETFs became the most practical source for necessary portfolio rebalancing and liquidity. Furthermore, the impending retirement of HMC's CEO adds a layer of reputational risk to holding volatile assets. The article contrasts Harvard's retreat with other institutions, such as Mubadala's continued accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs and Dartmouth's expansion into staking-oriented crypto products. It concludes that HMC's actions reflect a complex interplay of fiscal needs, risk management, and institutional constraints rather than simple speculative trading, highlighting how traditional finance logic applies to crypto within large endowment portfolios.

链捕手7m ago

Harvard University May Have Lost $150 Million in Cryptocurrency Trading! Has Liquidated Ethereum and Significantly Reduced Bitcoin ETF Holdings

链捕手7m ago

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

Last month, Garrick Wilhelm lost a $567 bet on the Polymarket prediction platform about whether a ceasefire would be reached with Hezbollah. When a truce was announced, some traders argued it counted, but Wilhelm disagreed. The dispute was settled not by Polymarket, but by a decentralized group of UMA token holders who vote on such disagreements. As trading surges, resolving ambiguous outcomes is a growing challenge for prediction markets. Unlike competitors like Kalshi that decide internally, Polymarket outsources dispute resolution to UMA. Its token holders, mostly anonymous and with voting power weighted by holdings, arbitrate cases. Critics argue this system is prone to manipulation, as voters can also bet on the same markets they judge. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that over the past year, at least 60% of active UMA voters had corresponding Polymarket accounts and held positions in disputes they voted on. Voting power is also concentrated among a few large holders. Polymarket says only 0.2% of bets go to UMA and that the system disperses authority. Its founder has acknowledged flaws and promised fixes. UMA's backers deny any proven manipulation, dismissing critics as sore losers. The platform penalizes voters in the minority to incentivize "correct" outcomes. Disputes are rising, covering topics from a streamer's pregnancy announcement to Iran. This model also helps Polymarket argue it's an offshore platform outside U.S. regulation, a shift made after a 2022 settlement with the CFTC. Some losing traders have formed groups to protest, targeting entities like UMA.rocks, which aggregates votes. Its founder says traders often blame UMA for their own mistakes. A recently ousted committee member, Scout, admitted to both betting and voting but argued involved voters research more thoroughly. He highlighted the dilemma: "Either you have conflicted traders deciding, or you have uninformed outsiders voting. There is no perfect answer right now."

marsbit44m ago

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

marsbit44m ago

China's AI Circle Has Just Established a Pecking Order, and Capital Is Already Changing the Rules Again

The article describes how the valuation logic for major Chinese AI model companies has undergone three dramatic shifts between 2022 and 2026, driven by capital's changing priorities. The first phase (around 2022) was **technology-driven valuation**, where funding was based on model performance and benchmark scores. This logic was disrupted when DeepSeek's R1 model demonstrated that comparable capabilities could be achieved at a fraction of the cost, challenging the notion of technical superiority as an unassailable moat. The second phase shifted to **IPO window-driven valuation**. Following favorable listing conditions in Hong Kong, capital flowed to companies like Zhipu and MiniMax with the clearest path to a public listing. However, this focus on liquidity over fundamentals became apparent as their Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) lagged far behind international peers like Anthropic. The third and current phase is **national strategy-driven valuation**. This shift was marked by the state-backed "Big Fund" leading a major investment in DeepSeek, signaling that leading domestic AI models are now viewed as strategic national assets comparable to semiconductor manufacturing. This new logic, combined with soaring US valuation benchmarks (e.g., OpenAI at $850B), propelled the combined valuation of China's top AI firms ("The Four Dragons"/"Five Strong") past 1 trillion RMB. The article presents a "pricing leap model": each shift is triggered by a key event that invalidates the old logic, leading to rapid capital reallocation under a new narrative before its flaws (particularly the gap in fundamental ARR metrics) become evident. It concludes that the next major test for these valuations will be a return to scrutinizing core business fundamentals, specifically ARR growth, suggesting a fourth pricing shift is imminent.

marsbit1h ago

China's AI Circle Has Just Established a Pecking Order, and Capital Is Already Changing the Rules Again

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片