QCP Capital: биткоин и золото движутся синхронно на фоне ожиданий снижения ставок

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-10-14Last updated on 2025-10-15

Трейдинговая фирма QCP Capital выпустила новый отчет, в котором проанализировала текущую ситуацию на рынках после волатильных выходных. Компания отмечает стабилизацию рисковых активов: акции торгуются примерно на 1,5% ниже недавних максимумов, а биткоин — на 10% ниже своего пика.

Ставки спасут рынок?

Восстановление котировок частично связано с новыми ожиданиями снижения процентных ставок. Своп-контракты сейчас закладывают смягчение примерно на 125 базисных пунктов к концу 2026 года. Председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл (Jerome Powell) подтвердил планы регулятора снизить ставку еще на четверть пункта в этом месяце. Это поддерживает настроения инвесторов в ближайшей перспективе, несмотря на то что приостановка работы правительства задерживает публикацию ключевых данных по рынку труда.

Золото бьет рекорды

Золото продолжает привлекать основное внимание, достигнув исторического максимума $4 022 за унцию — рост составил 52% с начала года. Драйверами роста стали активные покупки центральных банков и снижение реальной доходности облигаций. В первой половине 2025 года мировые резервы пополнились более чем на 800 тонн золота, причем лидерами закупок выступили Китай, Турция и Индия. Это подчеркивает глобальный тренд на диверсификацию резервов.

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Крупные финансовые институты, включая Bank of America и J.P. Morgan, прогнозируют дальнейший рост цены золота до диапазона $4 500–5 000 к 2026 году. По мнению аналитиков QCP Capital, рыночная динамика смещается от режима, чувствительного к процентным ставкам, к режиму, определяемому ликвидностью. Покупки центробанков, потоки дедолларизации и хеджирование институциональных портфелей стали доминирующими силами, толкающими золото вверх. Драгоценный металл вышел за рамки традиционного инструмента защиты от инфляции.

Жив ли нарратив цифрового золота?

Несмотря на волатильность выходных, корреляция между биткоином и золотом поднялась выше 0,85. Это указывает на синхронизированные потоки между традиционными и цифровыми средствами сбережения. Пока золото обновляет исторические максимумы, биткоин перед выходными также кратковременно достиг нового рекорда.

Корреляция между биткоином и золотом. Источник: Ки Янг Ю

Институциональные резервы продолжают наращивать позиции, а приток средств в биткоин-ETF остается устойчивым. Только вчера в биткоин-ETF поступило $102,7 млн, а в Ethereum-ETF — $236,2 млн. QCP Capital считает, что условия для нового ралли уже формируются.

Однако аналитики задают вопрос: сможет ли биткоин сохранить статус «цифрового золота» на следующем этапе макроэкономического цикла? Это особенно актуально на фоне возобновления тарифных рисков и изменения динамики ликвидности на рынках.

Текущая ситуация демонстрирует, как традиционные и криптовалютные активы все больше движутся в унисон под влиянием глобальных макроэкономических факторов. Институциональный интерес к обоим классам активов сохраняется, а центральные банки продолжают искать альтернативы доллару в своих резервах.

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