Deutsche Bank: к 2030 году биткоин «станет соседом золота» в резервах центробанков

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-10-20Last updated on 2025-10-20

В исследовании Deutsche Bank говорится, что в ближайшие годы биткоин будет всё больше вести себя как золото, а к 2030-му оба актива «смогут сосуществовать» в официальных резервах. Авторы — Марион Лабуре и Камилла Сиазон — подчёркивают: появление BTC в резервах не означает вытеснение золота, речь о диверсификации.

Почему это стало возможным

  • Институциональный спрос и инфраструктура. Притоки в спотовые ETF на биткоин и усложнение кастоди-сервисов снижают «порог входа» для консервативных институтов и регуляторов.

  • Снижение относительной волатильности и «поведенческая» конвергенция с золотом. В отчёте DB анализируется корреляция BTC с индексом VIX и драгметаллом, вывод — «биткоин взрослеет» как макрогедж.

  • Макрофон. Ослабление доллара и геополитическая неопределённость исторически усиливают тягу к резервным «убежищам». DB считает, что часть спроса уйдёт и в цифровое «убежище».

Но скепсис никуда не делся

Ряд центробанков публично сомневаются, что BTC подходит для официальных резервов: звучат аргументы про волатильность, правовой статус, бухгалтерский учёт и ликвидность. Так, осторожность высказывали SNB и представители ЧНБ. Эти позиции показывают: путь от идеи до реальной покупки активов центробанками пройдёт через регулирование и стандарты учёта.

Последствия для рынков

Если даже часть центробанков добавит небольшую долю BTC к золоту, это создаст структурный спрос и сократит «плавающее» предложение, усиливая ценовую упругость на панических распродажах. Для золота это не проигрыш: скорее перераспределение хеджа между «аналоговым» и «цифровым» убежищами. В макроразрезе усилится тренд на мультивалютные резервы, а у эмитентов стейблкоинов/цифровых валют и их кастоди-провайдеров появится дополнительный стимул выстраивать регуляторно чистые цепочки владения и расчётов.

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