以太坊近期的强势上涨是因为 Pectra 升级吗?

深潮Published on 2025-05-15Last updated on 2025-05-15

以太坊被 FUD 过头了,需要对现有价值重新发现。

撰文:Haotian

此次以太坊 $ETH 的大幅上涨,不少人回过头来追问会不会和最近 Pectra 升级有关?答案可能并不是。

Pectra 升级更像是坎昆升级的「收尾工作」,主要是一些底层优化和细节完善,而非突破性的技术创新。

从技术视角看,Pectra 升级包含的四个 EIP 都指向同一个方向:让以太坊运行得更稳定、更高效。EIP-7044 的状态过期标准化、EIP-7524 的燃料限制重新定义、EIP-7697 的交易管道优化,以及 EIP-6789 的难度调整改进——这些都是典型的「修修补补」型升级,解决坎昆升级后留下的一些边缘问题。

真正决定此次以太坊价格走势的逻辑其实是被过度 FUD 后的「价值修复」。

过去几个月,以太坊确实经历了一轮「集中火力」般的质疑:layer2 流动性分散被放大成生态分裂,与 Solana 的性能对比被解读成技术路线失败,以及众 layer2 生态应用扩展不及预期,Restaking、模块化、zk 等技术叙事堆叠无法被价值捕获等等;

当所有焦点都聚焦在以太坊的问题上时,人们忽略了一些关键事实:DeFi 总锁仓价值依然稳定在 $119B,坎昆升级确实大幅降低了 layer2 成本,ETF 资金流入持续增强,RWA 和 PayFi 等新叙事也主要在以太坊生态发展。

以太大的基本面并没有像市场情绪反映的那么糟糕。

而机构投资者显然看穿了这种情绪失衡。最典型的例子是 Abraxas Capital 那 242,652 ETH 的巨额购买(约 $5.61 亿)。而且 5 月 9-14 日期间,大额 ETH 转账(>$1M)也显著增加,机构级钱包地址 ETH 余额明显增长,这些都表明是有计划的机构大规模建仓行为。

所以,非要给此轮以太坊上涨找一个逻辑的话:以太坊被 FUD 过头了,需要对现有价值重新发现,而机构趁机抢先抄底了?

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