Биткоин опережает исторический график, несмотря на затянувшуюся аккумуляцию — анализ Rekt Capital

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-02-04Last updated on 2024-10-04

Популярный трейдер и аналитик Rekt Capital представил подробный анализ текущей ситуации на рынке биткоина. В своем видеообзоре эксперт рассмотрел два ключевых сценария развития событий: движение в нисходящем канале и фазу повторной аккумуляции.

Нисходящий канал: признаки ослабления

Rekt Capital отмечает, что цена биткоина находится в нисходящем канале, ограниченном верхней и нижней границами. Анализ показывает, что сопротивление на верхней границе канала постепенно ослабевает:

Первоначально отскоки от верхней границы были резкими, с падением до $50 000
Затем последовало падение до $52 000
Сейчас наблюдаются все более мелкие откаты

1-недельный график BTC/USD. Аналитика: Rekt Capital

Две недели назад произошел прорыв июльского нисходящего тренда (зеленая наклонная линия на графике), и сейчас цена тестирует его в качестве нового уровня поддержки. Успешный ретест может привести к новому ралли в направлении верхней границы канала.

Фаза повторной аккумуляции: затягивается, но все еще опережает график

Параллельно с движением в канале биткоин находится в фазе повторной аккумуляции, которая продолжается уже восемь месяцев. Rekt Capital подчеркивает:

Наблюдаются падения ниже нижней границы диапазона $60 600, которые активно выкупаются
Успешный ретест нижней границы диапазона как поддержки (зеленая горизонтальная линия на графике) может спровоцировать рост к верхней границе около $70 000
Исторически фазы аккумуляции после халвинга длятся 154–161 день, текущая фаза длится уже 168 дней

1-недельный график BTC/USD. Аналитика: Rekt Capital

Несмотря на затягивание фазы аккумуляции, цикл все еще опережает исторический график примерно на два месяца. Это связано с тем, что новый исторический максимум был достигнут еще до халвинга, что произошло впервые.

Ключевой вопрос: консолидация или прорыв?

Rekt Capital ставит интересный вопрос: что сейчас важнее для биткоина — продолжить замедление цикла или следовать историческим тенденциям и готовиться к прорыву?

Аналитик отмечает, что успешный ретест нижней границы диапазона аккумуляции, совпадающей с линией нисходящего тренда, может стать сигналом к росту. В противном случае возможна новая волна падений и «максимального пессимизма» на рынке.

В заключение Rekt Capital подчеркивает, что текущий цикл характеризуется чередой фаз повторной аккумуляции. Несмотря на некоторое затягивание процесса, исторические данные указывают на вероятность перехода к параболической фазе роста в обозримом будущем.

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