EMC Labs比特币每周观察(8.5~8.11):深度调整引抄底资金进入,BTC守住高位震荡区

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-12Last updated on 2024-08-12

Abstract

本周下跌让BTC再次击穿200天均线,但也吸引了大量抄底资金进入,相信BTC仍处于高位震荡区为未来1年牛市蓄力。

撰文:Shang2046

本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断,仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。

EMC Labs比特币每周观察(8.5~8.11):深度调整引抄底资金进入,BTC守住高位震荡区

市场一周

上周 BTC 开 58161 美元,收 58712 美元,一度在 8 月 5 日下跌至 4.9 万美元,振幅高达 23.63% ,为本年度以来第二大周。本年度最大振幅周并不遥远—— 2 月底 BTC 由 5 万美元单周上涨 1 万美元,在接下来的第二周创造历史新高。

在经历了长达半年的高位盘整和两次在 30% 左右的深度回调后,BTC 目前击破了上升趋势线和 200 天线,但仍保留在新高整理区域。

如我们上周所述,本轮下跌的原因来自日元加息引发套利交易者踩踏和对美国经济衰退的忧虑。所幸,上周随后的时间这两个最大负面因素都有所纠正。BTC 价格也随之快速反弹,最高至 6.27 万美元。

快速下跌并没有击溃市场的信心,我们注意到上周录得过去 4 个月单周最大资金流入。在以 Jump Crypto 等做市商动辄数亿美元 USDC 撤出的前提下,这一点殊为不易。

当然,危险的局面仍未过去:短期投资者处于亏损状态、市场在 200 天均线附近徘徊、 9 月份降息逐步 Price in 等,需要较长时间的修复。

时间,也是投资者的朋友。第四次减半已经走过 115 天,虽然在减半前就创了历史新高,但新高后的走势并没有脱离历史的惯常轨迹。我们乐观预计,所有的震荡都是在为未来 1 年的更好走势创造空间。

距离通常 500 天左右的抵达历史最高点还有很长的路要走,这是新投资者进入的最佳时机。

美联储及经济数据

在不断吹风扭转市场对经济衰退的预期后,美联储进一步希望市场对 9 月份的降息幅度不要那么乐观,不是 50 个基点而是 25 个基点。FED 观察目前数据: 9 月降 25 基点概率 51.5% , 50 基点概率 48.5% 。年内累积降息 75 基点为 49.4% 。  

资金面

上周稳定币大幅流入 23.36 亿美元。其中,USDT、USDC 均实现正流入,分别为 10.31、 13.04 亿,这些资金成为本轮新低后反弹的决定性力量。

BTC ETF 通道, 5 个交易日仅 2 个交易日正流入,全周净流出 1.69 亿。8 月以来,已连续两周净流出。

筹码供应

本周市场“由短入长”持续, 5 个月以上长期投资者增持 5.45 万枚,而 5 个月以下投资者减持 5.26 万枚。市场的剧烈变化加剧了短手持仓的减少,短手已实现连续 7 周减持。

短手在短暂盈利后再次进入亏损区间,最大平均亏损达 14% 。

8 月 5 日快速下跌日,有超过 8.5 完美 BTC 充入交易所,但整周交易所净累积 BTC 只有 500 枚,或意味绝大部分抛压已被有效吸收。

矿工群体增持 100 枚,已实现连续 3 周增持。本周俄罗斯通过国家立法形式允许企业(需批准)和个人(低于一定规模)合法挖矿。  

BTC 链上数据

BTC 新增地址、活跃地址保持温和复苏, 30 日均线延续上周趋势继续缓慢向上。Transactions 持平上周,Gas 收益仍然低迷。      

生态分析

Ethereum Eco 恢复较好,新增地址、活跃地址、总转账数均已重回扩张区。

Solana 新增地址、活跃地址、总转账数均出现一定回落,但仍维持较高水平。   

EMC BTC Cycle 指标

EMC BTC Cycle Metrics 指标为 0.125 ,有待进一步复苏中断的牛市信号。      

END

EMC Labs(涌现实验室)由加密资产投资人和数据科学家于 2023 年 4 月创建。专注区块链产业研究及 Crypto 二级市场投资,以产业前瞻、洞察及数据挖掘为核心竞争力,致力于以研究和投资方式参与蓬勃发展的区块链产业,推动区块链及加密资产为人类带来福祉。

更多信息请访问:https://www.emc.fund

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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