Weak US Employment and $1.1 Billion into ETFs: Wintermute on the New Rally and Inflation Risks
Analysts at Wintermute stated that the cryptocurrency market gained support following a weak U.S. jobs report. Against this backdrop, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted $1.1 billion in inflows over the week. While demand via ETFs has recovered, there is insufficient data to confirm a sustainable shift in market sentiment.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $853.5 million over five sessions, the best weekly result since mid-April. Ethereum ETFs attracted another $244.9 million, marking a fifth consecutive positive week. Over 80% of the inflows into both groups went to BlackRock. Wintermute notes that relatively restrained trading volumes may indicate large investors gradually building positions rather than short-term capital rotation.
A disappointing U.S. employment report for July, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs versus an expected gain of 80,000, led markets to reduce the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. This supported risk assets, including crypto. However, Wintermute cautions that the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report on August 12 poses a key test. Higher-than-expected inflation could revive rate hike fears above 50%, risking a reversal of the recent rally.
Beyond ETFs, institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure continues, exemplified by Wells Fargo's planned launch of tokenized deposits. Wintermute views this as banks modernizing their settlement systems, which could eventually support broader digital asset integration. The firm concludes that while the ETF inflows are a positive signal, one week is not enough to confirm a durable trend, and the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data, particularly inflation.
cryptonews.ru10m ago
9 档美国比特币现货 ETF 的每日资金流动情况，来源：Farside Investors
